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The National Rifle Association's executive vice president and CEO Wayne LaPierre slammed Democrats for their reaction to the mass shooting in Parkland, Florida, and warned of government overreach extending far beyond the limiting of fire arms."What they want is more restrictions on the law-abiding," LaPierre said on stage at the Conservative Political Action Conference outside Washington. "They want to sweep right under the carpet the failure of school security."Despite the fact that Republicans control both chambers in Congress and the White House, LaPierre spent a signficant portion of his remarks warning of expanding socialist political ideas and he called out rising star Democratic lawmakers -- many of them potential 2020 candidates -- by name. He criticized independent Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, California Democratic Sens. Kamala Harris and Elizabeth Warren and other high-profile Democrats like New Jersey Democratic Sen. Cory Booker.  968

The gunman who killed 26 people at a Texas church had sent threatening texts to his mother-in-law -- who attended the church he targeted, authorities said Monday.Devin Patrick Kelley had domestic problems and texted his mother-in-law as recently as Sunday morning, not long before he carried out the largest mass shooting in Texas history."We know that he expressed anger towards his mother-in-law, who attends this church," said Freeman Martin of Texas' Department of Public Safety. 491

The only Louisville police officer who was charged with a crime relating to the raid that resulted in the death of Breonna Taylor has been accused of sexual assault.According to WAVE-TV in Louisville, a woman has filed a lawsuit against former Louisville Metro Police Department Officer Brett Hankison, accusing him of assaulting her after he gave her a ride home from a bar where he was working security.According to the lawsuit, the plaintiff, Margo Borders, met Hankison through mutual friends in 2017. In 2018, Border met friends at Tin Roof, a bar west of downtown Louisville where Hankison was working a side job as a security guard.Borders said she had been drinking that evening, and when she went to call an Uber, Hankison insisted that he drive her home. When he dropped her off at her apartment, he allegedly invited himself in. Borders alleges that when she went to sleep, Hankison "willfully, intentionally, painfully and violently sexually assaulted" her.When Borders regained consciousness, she yelled at Hankison and asked him to leave. Borders alleges that Hankison later messaged her and allegedly tried to convince her that they had "engaged in consensual relations."The lawsuit also includes claims from nine other women who say Hankison either approached them with unwanted sexual advances or assaulted them.CNN reports that Hankison's police file includes 50 internal reports, including two reports of alleged sexual misconduct. He was exonerated in both incidents.Hankison was fired from the LMPD earlier this year. He faces three charges of wanton endangerment for his actions in the raid that led to the death of Breonna Taylor, as he's accused of firing his weapon and endangering the lives of Taylor's neighbors.No officers involved in the raid faced homicide charges in Taylor's death, and Kentucky Attorney General Daniel Cameron has said the officer's actions were justified because they were fired upon by Taylor's boyfriend. However, grand jurors who weighed charges for the officers have said publicly that Cameron did not afford them the opportunity to charge officers with a homicide. 2127

The president has signed the covid relief/government funding bill, several sources told me.— Jake Sherman (@JakeSherman) December 28, 2020 152

The polling industry has a lot on the line heading into Tuesday's midterm election.Critics blamed pollsters when voters were caught off guard by Donald Trump's election in 2016. Old cries of "don't believe the polls" became fevered shouts. And the president has encouraged distrust by calling certain polls "fake" and claiming they are used to "suppress" the vote.Although there is no evidence to suggest that is true, there is persistent and widespread suspicion about polling, according to, you guessed it, a McClatchy-Marist poll. And it exists on both sides, albeit in different forms."I think Democrats may have felt let down by the polls but don't think it was an intentional error. I think many Republicans believe the polling errors of 2016 were intentional," GOP pollster and co-founder of Echelon Insights Kristen Soltis Anderson told CNN.So can the industry regain trust?Since 2016 there's been a whole lot of self-reflection in the polling world. Pollsters have tweaked their techniques; pundits have become more cautious when talking about polls; and news outlets have conducted some fascinating experiments.On Tuesday, all the efforts are being put to the test."Some pollsters would disagree with this, but the way that the public generally views whether or not polling is accurate is whether or not it gets the results of the election right," CNN analyst Harry Enten said on "Reliable Sources.""I'm not necessarily sure that's fair," Enten said, "but I do think that there is more pressure on pollsters this year to get it right given the president's rhetoric and given what happened in 2016."Many, though not all, 2016 polls underestimated support for Trump. This effect was particularly pronounced at the state level, where there were embarrassing "misses," showing Hillary Clinton with safe leads in states Trump actually carried.Most national polls accurately showed Clinton winning the popular vote. But reporters and commentators made lots of mistakes in their interpretations of the polls. Readers and viewers did, too. Many people discounted the margin and other factors and made faulty assumptions that Trump would lose to Clinton.There were other problems, too. Predictive features on websites gained lots of traffic before the election but caused lots of consternation afterward. HuffPost's model infamously showed Clinton with a 98 percent chance of winning. "We blew it," the site admitted afterward.But just as importantly, HuffPost's Natalie Jackson tried to explain why.Other news outlets have also tried to be more transparent and remind voters of what polls cannot convey.In special elections since 2016, Democrats have repeatedly outperformed polls of their races.The top example was the Virginia governors' race. "Ralph Northam was favored by three points. He ended up winning by nine," Enten said.But past outcomes are not an indicator of future results."I think many pollsters and forecasters have tried to be much more intentional about explaining uncertainty and being humble about what data can and can't tell us," Anderson said. "Because I think there was a big sense that in 2016, there was more certainty conveyed than may have been justified by the available data."So political pros and reporters are communicating poll results differently this time. Time magazine's Molly Ball, who has a no-predictions rule for herself, said that even people who do make predictions are adding more caveats: There's "less of the, 'Well, the needle shows this' and more of, 'Here's what it doesn't show, here's what we should always remember can happen about probabilities.'"Early voting has been explosive in the midterms, indicating above-average enthusiasm among both Democrats and Republicans. Pollsters have to make assumptions about turnout when contacting "likely voters," and this is a difficult election to forecast.The 2018 electorate is "a universe that doesn't exist yet," Democratic pollster Margie Omero said. "I mean, people don't know whether they're going to vote, some people."They may tell a pollster that they're sure to vote, but never make it to the ballot box. Or they might change who they're voting for.Conversely, certain subsets of voters may have a big impact on the final results without really showing up in the pre-election polling. If pollsters assume relatively low youth turnout, but lots of young people vote for the first time, that could cause big surprises in certain races.The vast majority of people who are called by pollsters decline to participate, so the researchers have to make a huge number of phone calls, bend over backwards to reach a representative sample of people, and weight their results accordingly.Some polls are higher quality than others. Most news outlets tend to favor live interviewers, as opposed to computerized systems, and a mix of landline and cell phone calls. But some outlets are wading into web-based polling. CNN's polling standards preclude reporting on web polls.This fall The New York Times pulled back the curtain by conducting "live polling" and publishing the results in real time, call by call. Working with Siena College, the surveyors made 2,822,889 calls and completed 96 polls of House and Senate races."We wanted to demystify polling for people," said Nate Cohn of The Times' Upshot blog."From our point of view, it's almost a miracle how accurate polls usually are, given all the challenges," Cohn said in an interview with CNN.He emphasized that polls are "very fuzzy things." And the real-time polling showed this to the public. The researchers sought to interview about 500 people for each race that was examined.In Iowa's fourth congressional district, for example, 14,636 calls resulted in 423 interviews.The results showed the incumbent, far-right congressman Steve King, with 47% support, and his Democratic challenger J.D. Scholten with 42%.The Times characterized this as a "slight edge" for King, with lots of room for error. "The margin of sampling error on the overall lead is 10 points, roughly twice as large as the margin for a single candidate's vote share," the Times explained on its website.Cohn's final pre-election story noted that "even modest late shifts among undecided voters or a slightly unexpected turnout could significantly affect results."That's the kind of language that lots of polling experts are incorporating into their stories and live shots, especially in the wake of the 2016 election."With polling, you never actually get to the truth," Cohn said. "You inch towards it, and you think you end up within plus or minus 5 points of it at the end."As Enten put it, "polls are tools," not meant to be perfect. But that message needs to be reinforced through the news media. 6753