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On their surface, a lot polls got the 2016 election wrong. As late as October 23, 2016, an ABC News poll had Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump by 12%.But pollsters say that polls like the one conducted by ABC News do not even tell the whole story.“National polls are very helpful in giving us a sense of who might win the popular vote. In that regard, 2016 polls were relatively accurate,” said Emily Goodman is a principal at EMC Research, a nationwide polling firm.Hilary Clinton won the popular vote by about 2.8 million votes or 2%. In the last week of the election, many polls had tightened to have Clinton winning by about 2 to 5 percent. Goodman says a lot of people don’t understand polls.“One of the most important things to know about polls is that, they’re just a point in time, it’s a snapshot,” she said. There are a few key things you should look for when it comes to polling, the first being you don’t win the presidency by winning the popular vote.“The path to the presidency is by winning 270 Electoral College votes and that is why the state by state polling is incredibly important,” said Goodman. So nationwide polling won’t tell you who will win. Instead, state by state polling is more helpful.There’s also a few other things you should look for if you see a poll on the news, social media or other places.“The first is timeline, when was it conducted? Are you looking at a poll that was very recent, or a poll that was conducted months ago? Who the poll is conducted among. So are you looking at a poll of adults, are you looking at a poll of registered voters, of likely voters, or some other subset of the population? The sample size, that is, how many people were actually included in the poll? That ultimately tells you what the margin of error is. How the poll was conducted, what was the methodology? Was it conducted on telephone and did those phones include landlines and cellphones? Was it conducted online, over text?” Goodman explains. One key thing there, how polling respondents are reached, and it’s one thing that a pollster who got the 2016 election right says is key.“I don’t want the public face, I want what you really think because your real opinions are what go in that voting booth with you, when nobody is looking," said Robert Cahaly, the lead pollster for the Trafalgar Group,In 2016, Trafalgar projected Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Florida for Donald Trump. He says in 2016, there was a group of hidden Trump supporters. He said it’s a result of what’s called the Social Desirability Bias.“When you speak to a live person on the phone, you tend, especially when you know they know who you are, you tend to give an answer to a question that you think will make you look best in the mind of the person you’re talking to versus your true feeling,” he said. Cahaley says to some people, being seen as a Trump supporter is so undesirable, they won’t tell the truth to people conducting polls on the phone. He’s seeing the same exact thing in 2020 he saw in 2016 and that traditional polling may not be accounting for this.However, Goodman says that the industry is expanding how to reach respondents.“What used to be the gold standard of telephone surveys, exclusively landlines, is no longer appropriate. Cellphones, but beyond just having someone just call up a voter on your cellphone, we’re also now including texting, emailing, that includes a link to take a survey online and using a mix of those methodologies really helps get a representative sample of likely voters,”Both pollsters do agree on one thing however, this election will come down to turn out.“A lot of this is really going to come down to turn out,” said Goodman. “This thing has never been a persuasion election, I’ve said that from the beginning, it’s a motivational election. Whichever side turns out their people is going to win this race, and it’s that simple,” said Cahaley. 3923

OCEANSIDE (KGTV) - Three women were injured Sunday evening in a shooting at an Oceanside shopping center, according to Oceanside Police.Police said three Hispanic women were in front of a clothing store in the 3700 block of Mission Boulevard, when three black men suddenly came up to them, shortly after 5 pm. Two of the three suspects shot at the three young women. All the victims suffered non-life-threatening gunshot wounds and went to the hospital. Waitress Angelica Camiro was on her break, treating her nephews to a cup of ice-cream from the shop next door. On their way back, she saw the commotion. "The only thing was, 'Save the kids!' because I don't know what was happening," Camiro said. She immediately ran back into the restaurant and told all the customers to get to the back of the store. Then they called Police. Witnesses said the suspects got away in a dark sedan. If anybody has any information, please contact the Oceanside Police. 995

One of the jurors from Paul Manafort's trial said on Wednesday that although she "did not want Paul Manafort to be guilty," the evidence was "overwhelming.""I thought that the public, America, needed to know how close this was, and that the evidence was overwhelming," Paula Duncan said in an interview on Fox News. "I did not want Paul Manafort to be guilty, but he was, and no one's above the law. So it was our obligation to look through all the evidence."Duncan, who is the first juror to speak publicly, offered a look behind the scenes of the deliberations. She noted that "crazily enough, there were even tears," and detailed some of the jury's conversations with the lone juror who she said was the reason Manafort was not found guilty on all counts."We all tried to convince her to look at the paper trail. We laid it out in front of her again and again and she still said that she had a reasonable doubt. And that's the way the jury worked. We didn't want it to be hung, so we tried for an extended period of time to convince her, but in the end she held out and that's why we have 10 counts that did not get a verdict," Duncan said on "Fox News at Night."Manafort, who served as President Donald Trump's campaign chairman, was found guilty on eight of 18 counts on Tuesday, and is facing up to 80 years in prison. He was found guilty of five tax fraud charges, one charge of hiding foreign bank accounts and two counts of bank fraud.One of the witnesses who testified against Manafort was his longtime deputy, Rick Gates. Duncan described Gates as "nervous," and said the jury ultimately threw away his testimony during deliberation."Some of us had a problem accepting his testimony because he took the plea. So we agreed to throw out his testimony and look at the paperwork, which his name was all over," Duncan said."I think he would have done anything to preserve himself -- that's just obvious in the fact that he flipped on Manafort," she later added.Duncan, who said she is a Trump supporter herself, said the President's name did come up during deliberations because "in the evidence there were references to Trump and his son-in-law and to the Trump campaign," but later added that she didn't think politics played a part in the jury's decision."I think we all went in there like we were supposed to and assumed that Mr. Manafort was innocent. We did due diligence, we applied the evidence, our notes, the witnesses and we came up with the guilty verdicts on the eight counts," she said.Manafort will be on trial again next month on a second set of charges, this time in a Washington federal court. These charges include a failure to register foreign lobbying and a money laundering conspiracy related to Ukrainian political work. 2757

Now that the election is over and the transition has begun, one question is relevant: What could President-elect Biden actually change in this country?HOW MUCH POWER DO DEMOCRATS HAVE?We won't know the true power of a Biden presidency until January 5th, when Georgia will hold two Senate runoff elections. Because Republicans are poised to have 50 seats in the Senate at least, Democrats would have to sweep the Georgia races to also get 50 votes. Vice President-elect Harris would be the tie-breaking vote. If the Democrats sweep, Biden's power would increase greatly, especially if Democrats consider rule changes to the filibuster DIVIDED GOVERNMENTAt this moment, Republicans are favored to win at least one seat in Georgia, which means divided government is likely. That would mean passing major progressive legislation, like D.C. statehood, climate change or the public option, would be impossible under Senator Mitch McConnell's leadership. Immigration reform and COVID-19 economic relief legislation would be possible, though, under divided government. EXECUTIVE ORDERSPresident-elect Biden's greatest power would likely be with executive orders. Biden could issue orders such as re-joining the Paris Climate Agreement and the World Health Organization. DACA would also be temporarily saved. 1308

NOVI, Michigan — A Michigan teenager is being held on million bond after he allegedly made a threat on social app Snapchat to shoot up South Lyon High School.Ryan Robert Debruyne, from Green Oak Township, was arraigned on a charge of making a false report or threat of terrorism.WHMI reports Debryne turns 18 years old today, Feb. 21, 2018.His booking photo on the Oakland County Jail's website shows him being booked in jail on Tuesday and held on million bond.According to police, Debruyne sent a Snapchat to another student, asking if he wanted to join him in shooting up the school similar to the one in Florida last week.The school tells us the student informed local authorities of the threat, and police were able to take him into custody.WHMI reports that a probable cause conference is scheduled for Wednesday, Feb. 28. 864

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