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A key forecasting model that’s been cited by the White House and state officials now predicts the COVID-19 death toll in the United States will surpass 410,000 by January 1.The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington released its latest forecast Friday, saying the U.S. and other countries in the Northern Hemisphere should prepare for a seasonal rise in COVID-19 cases.COVID-19 has already killed at least 186,800 people in the U.S., according to an ongoing tally from Johns Hopkins University.“I would call the surge in the winter that we’re forecasting a second wave,” said IHME Director Dr. Christopher Murray in a call with reporters Friday.The IHME says COVID-19 has followed seasonal patterns similar to pneumonia and if that correlation continues to hold, northern countries can anticipate more cases in the late fall and winter months.“The worst is yet to come,” warned Murray. “I don’t think perhaps that’s a surprise, although I think there’s a natural tendency as we’re a little bit in the Northern Hemisphere summer, to think maybe the epidemic is going away.”The IHME’s prediction of 410,000 U.S. deaths by Jan. 1 is its most likely scenario, but it also provided a worst-case scenario. If mask usage stays the same and states continue to relax social distancing requirements, the IHME model predicts over 620,000 Americans could die from the virus by the new year.The IHME’s best-case scenario, where mask usage is universal and governments impose social distancing requirements, shows more than 286,000 people dying across the nation by the end of the year.“We are facing the prospect of a deadly December, especially in Europe, Central Asia, and the United States,” said Murray in a statement. “But the science is clear and the evidence irrefutable: mask-wearing, social distancing, and limits to social gatherings are vital to helping prevent transmission of the virus.”Globally, the IHME predicts that nearly 770,000 lives could be saved between now and Jan. 1 through proven measures such as mask-wearing and social distancing.Across the world, deaths expected by Jan. 1 total 2.8 million, about 1.9 million more from now until the end of the year, the IHME says. Daily deaths in December could reach as high as 30,000.Under the most likely of IHME’s scenarios, the nations with the highest per capita total deaths would be the U.S. Virgin Islands, the Netherlands, and Spain.The IHME says these five countries will most likely have the highest cumulative death tolls by Jan. 1:India: 659,537U.S.: 410,451Brazil: 174,297Mexico: 138,828Japan: 120,514IHME says its projections are based on an epidemiological model that includes data on cases, deaths, and antibody prevalence, as well as location-specific COVID-19 testing rates, mobility, social distancing mandates, mask use, population density and age structure, and pneumonia seasonality, which shows a strong correlation with the trajectory of COVID-19. 2977

A family is grieving after their loved one died when her home collapsed during a tornado in Kentucky."It's just like it flattened everything," Tammy Brown said.Brown said she is devastated and in disbelief after the force of a tornado brought down her parent's home on Dot Road in Logan County."He lost everything in 12 minutes," Brown said.She visited them just moments before the tornado struck."I mean, I left here yesterday at 3:15 p.m., and this place was picture perfect," Brown said. "And you look at it today, and you've got metal in all the trees. They've been walking around in the fields, and they went all the way to the river and they were finding my daughter's toys."Dallas Combs, 79, who went by Jane, was inside the home when it collapsed."Dad's not coping… he was the one that found her," Brown said.John Combs was outside putting down sandbags when the tornado hit."So when it took the roof off, it sucked him back through the basement, so he immediately went up the steps, and he started calling for her," Brown said. "He moved a big thing of bricks, and he knew the minute he saw her she was gone."The woman he loved was taken from him. They had lived in that home for 30 years."All he can tell me is, 'The love of my life is gone' and 'I can't live by myself because I've never been by myself,'" Brown said.Jane and John were just months away from celebrating their 60th wedding anniversary."She was a very Christian woman, and her last words to you every single time was, 'I love you.' Because she never knew if when she saw you, it was going to be the last time," Brown said.On Saturday, Tammy Brown's mother said "I love you" for the last time.She said it's upsetting that her parents had no warning."My phone went off after she was dead," Brown said.According to the National Weather Service's report, the EF-2 tornado touched down at 3:54 p.m. on Saturday. The tornado warning was issued at 4:06 p.m. according to the NWS survey team from Louisville, Kentucky.For this family, it was too late, and now they begin the process of rebuilding without Jane by their side."I'm like, we'll make it through it, dad," Brown said. "We'll make it through it."The couple had made plans to move to Lexington this year and lease out their farm.According to family, the funeral will be held there. 2351

A California utility company said its crews found a damaged transmission tower and holes in a power pole at separate locations near the site where the Camp Fire started.More than a month after the deadliest and most destructive wildfire in the state's history broke out, Pacific Gas & Electric Co. released a more detailed account of outages it experienced that day.In a letter to the California Public Utilities Commission, PG&E said one of its employees called 911 on November 8 -- the day the deadly wildfire began -- after spotting flames in the vicinity of a high-voltage tower near the town of Pulga in Butte County.That fire was reported almost 15 minutes after the utility experienced a transmission line outage at the same location, the company said. It was also around the same time the Camp Fire broke out.The electric utility had disclosed in a regulatory filing last month that it "experienced an outage" on a transmission line in Butte County about 15 minutes before the wildfire began but had not released additional details.PG&E said in its Tuesday letter that inspectors later discovered that a hook connecting part of the transmission line and the transmission tower was broken. They also found a flash mark on the tower.The company also detailed a second outage at another location. That incident was reported a few miles away from the first outage and about 15 minutes after the wildfire started.When crews went to check the outage a day later, the letter states, they "observed that the pole and other equipment was on the ground with bullets and bullet holes at the break point of the pole and on the equipment."Meredith E. Allen, PG&E's senior director of regulatory relations, explained that details about the incidents are preliminary and they remain under investigation."The cause of these incidents has not been determined and may not be fully understood until additional information becomes available, including information that can only be obtained through examination and testing of the equipment retained by CAL FIRE," Allen wrote to regulators.The Camp Fire burned through more than 153,000 acres in Butte County, killing at least 85 people and destroying thousands of structures. It was contained November 25 after becoming the deadliest and most destructive wildfire in California history.Cal Fire, the state's forestry and fire protection agency, has said the cause of the Camp Fire is still under investigation.On Tuesday, PG&E said "the loss of life, homes and businesses in the Camp Fire is truly devastating.""Our focus continues to be on assessing our infrastructure to further enhance safety, restoring electric and gas service where possible, and helping customers begin to recover and rebuild. Throughout our service area, we are committed to doing everything we can to further reduce the risk of wildfire," the company said in a statement.PG&E made its findings public weeks after a federal judge ordered the company to explain any potential role it played in causing the deadly Camp Fire and any other major wildfires in the state.The company has until Dec. 31 to submit written answers to federal officials, according to court documents.The-CNN-Wire? & ? 2018 Cable News Network, Inc., a Time Warner Company. All rights reserved. 3311

A Black man who says he was unjustly arrested because facial recognition technology mistakenly identified him as a suspected shoplifter is calling for a public apology from Detroit police. And for the department to abandon its use of the controversial technology.The complaint by Robert Williams is a rare challenge from someone who not only experienced an erroneous face recognition hit, but was able to discover that it was responsible for his subsequent legal troubles.The Wednesday complaint filed on Williams' behalf alleges that his Michigan driver license photo — kept in a statewide image repository — was incorrectly flagged as a likely match to a shoplifting suspect. Investigators had scanned grainy surveillance camera footage of an alleged 2018 theft inside a Shinola watch store in midtown Detroit, police records show.That led to what Williams describes as a humiliating January arrest in front of his wife and young daughters on their front lawn in the Detroit suburb of Farmington Hills.Related: Detroit demonstrators calling for city to cease use of facial recognition technology“I can’t really even put it into words," Williams said in a video announcement describing the daytime arrest that left his daughters weeping. "It was one of the most shocking things that I ever had happen to me.”The 42-year-old automotive worker, backed by the American Civil Liberties Union, is demanding a public apology, final dismissal of his case and for Detroit police to scrap its use of facial recognition technology. Several studies have shown current face-recognition systems more likely to err when identifying people with darker skin.The ACLU complaint said Detroit police “unthinkingly relied on flawed and racist facial recognition technology without taking reasonable measures to verify the information being provided." It called the resulting investigation “shoddy and incomplete," the officers involved “rude and threatening,” and said the department has dragged its feet responding to public-information requests for relevant records.Detroit police and Wayne County prosecutors didn't immediately return emailed requests for comment Wednesday.Related: Detroit police board votes to approve DPD's use of facial recognition technologyDataWorks Plus, a South Carolina company that provides facial recognition technology to Detroit and the Michigan State Police, also couldn't immediately be reached for comment.Police records show the case began in October 2018 when five expensive watches went missing from the flagship store of Detroit-based luxury watchmaker Shinola. A loss-prevention worker later reviewed the video footage showing the suspect to be a Black man wearing a St. Louis Cardinals baseball cap.“Video and stills were sent to Crime Intel for facial recognition,” says a brief police report. “Facial Recognition came back with a hit" — for Williams.At the top of the facial recognition report, produced by Michigan State Police, was a warning in bold, capitalized letters that the computer's finding should be treated as an investigative lead, not as probable cause for arrest.But Detroit detectives then showed a 6-photo lineup that included Williams to the loss-prevention worker, who positively identified Williams, according to the report. It took months for police to issue an arrest warrant and several more before they called Williams at work and asked him to come to the police department. It's not clear why.Williams said he thought it was a prank call. But they showed up soon after at his house, took him away in handcuffs and detained him overnight. It was during his interrogation the next day that it became clear to him that he was improperly identified by facial recognition software.“The investigating officer looked confused, told Mr. Williams that the computer said it was him but then acknowledged that ‘the computer must have gotten it wrong,’” the ACLU complaint says.Prosecutors later dismissed the case, but without prejudice — meaning they could potentially pursue it again.The case is likely to fuel a movement in Detroit and around the U.S. protesting police brutality, racial injustice and the death of George Floyd at the hands of police in Minneapolis. Detroit activists have presented reforms to the city's mayor and police chief that include defunding the police department and ending its use of facial recognition.Providers of police facial recognition systems often point to research showing they can be accurate when used properly under ideal conditions. A review of the industry’s leading facial recognition algorithms by the National Institute of Standards and Technology found they were more than 99% accurate when matching high-quality head shots to a database of other frontal poses.But trying to identify a face from a video feed — especially using the ceiling-mounted cameras commonly found in stores — can cause accuracy rates to plunge. Studies have also shown that face recognition systems don't perform equally across race, gender and age — working best on white men and with potentially harmful consequences for others.Concerns about bias and growing scrutiny of policing practices following Floyd's death led tech giants IBM, Amazonand Microsoft to announce earlier this month they would stop selling face recognition software to police, at least until Congress can establish guidelines for its use. Several cities, led by San Francisco last year, have banned use of facial recognition by municipal agencies. 5490

A driver was life-flighted to Cleveland Clinic Akron General Medical Center after leading troopers on a chase that caused him to miss a stop sign, before going airborne in Medina County on Wednesday morning.Troopers attempted to initiate a traffic stop on a white 2009 Mazda 6 for a speed violation of going 76 miles per hour in a 35 mph speed zone on US 42 near Grafton Road.Authorities said the driver attempted to get away from troopers by traveling westbound on Grafton Road in Medina County when he missed the stop sign at Marks Road, causing him to go airborne for about the length of a football field. The car cut off the top of two trees that were about 15-20 feet in the air before coming to a stop in a front yard.The driver sustained non-life threatening injuries as a result of the crash. Authorities said alcohol is suspected at this time, but it's unclear why the driver was evading police. 942

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