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SAN DIEGO (KGTV) — As states continue to count votes, one thing is clear: the pre-election polls were off again.Pollsters underestimated support for President Donald Trump by a wider margin than they did in 2016, prompting a number of theories about what went wrong and why changes adopted after the 2016 election proved ineffective.Heading into Election Day 2020, candidate Joe Biden led Trump nationally by an average of 8.4%, according to FiveThirtyEight’s polling average. We won’t know the final margin until all the votes are counted, but it looks like Trump’s support was underestimated by about 3.5%.That’s wider than the national popular vote miss in 2016, when the polls underestimated Trump’s support by 1.1%.“Polling emerged from 2016 with a black eye. This is fair to say a second black eye in 2020,” said Jay Leve of polling firm SurveyUSA.Leve said the industry thought it had corrected its 2016 mistakes. Polling in the 2018 midterms was very accurate.In 2020, pollsters made sure to weigh for education level and include enough non-college-educated white voters to try to capture a representative sample of the electorate.But state polls show it didn’t work. In Ohio, there was a nearly 8-point miss. In Wisconsin, there was a nearly 10-point miss. In Florida, the polls missed by 5 points and incorrectly showed Biden in the lead.“While pollsters attempted to correct for the mistakes that they made in 2016, President Trump was busy hammering home a narrative that, number one, the media is the enemy of the people. And number two, polls are fake polls,” Leve said.Leve thinks that skepticism and distrust caused Trump supporters to ignore pollsters at a higher rate, causing them to be underrepresented in samples.San Diego State political scientist Dr. Stephen Goggin says there are other theories as well.“Between mail-in balloting, the pandemic, between all the early voting and all the confusion it creates, it’s possible some of that played a role in creating the error we saw this time,” he said.Goggin said the pandemic may have made the models used to predict voter turnout less accurate this cycle. Many surveys heading into the election showed an unusual trend: Biden was polling better among so-called “likely voters” than among registered voters overall. Typically Republicans hold an edge among likely voters, Nate Cohn of the New York Times noted.There’s also some early data suggesting once the pandemic hit, Democrats started responding to surveys more frequently, something that could have shifted the poll numbers.There may have also been issues surveying certain demographic groups. Pre-election polls showed Biden chipping away at Trump’s lead with seniors compared to 2016, but Biden actually did worse than Clinton with that demographic in certain key states. Trump’s support among Hispanic voters in Florida also surprised pollsters. If exit polling data shows that trend continued in other states, it might explain about one-quarter of this year’s polling error, according to the New York Times.“Many of these errors are fixable when they find out what went wrong and you can still get high-quality samples,” Goggin said.Pollsters are planning to do detailed autopsies on the election once they have final turnout data and results by precinct. Polling firms will eventually post detailed data from their results to the Roper Center for more finely tuned analysis.ABC 10News used SurveyUSA this election cycle to poll 11 state and local races. The final polls accurately predicted the winner in all 11 races, although the margins weren’t perfect.The ABC 10News/Union-Tribune scientific polls actually overestimated Trump’s support in California by about 4 points, relative to vote totals as of November 12. 3757

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) - As winter approaches, doctors are worried about more than the novel coronavirus."When winter comes we all tend to go indoors, and [viruses are] more likely to spread between us in school, in workplaces it's just going to happen," Dr. Davey Smith, Chief of Infectious Diseases at UC San Diego, said.If you develop a cough, fever, chills and you're achy, Dr. Smith said it could be a variety of viruses."We are going to have multiple viruses running around in the community at the same time. Double triple, it's not just the flu it's RSV that kids oftentimes get, adenoviruses and other seasonal viruses and they all look the same," he said.Dr. Smith is urging San Diegans to get a flu shot, especially this year, concerned about the hospital being overrun, "it's not just the PPE, it's the hospital beds, the doctors and the nurses, and everybody who has to take care of them."Cajon Valley Union School District has had students on campus since July. Poway is bringing students back on campus as part of a phased reopening plan.Vista Unified School District plans to reopen Tuesday.According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, one million Americans returned to work in September.That combined with local COVID-19 cases rising, we could be in for a rough Fall and Winter.Dr. Davey said vigilance is key, "that means masks, washing our hands, staying at a safe distance, and if we can't do that then we're going to have problems in San Diego." 1467

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) -- Authorities have identified one of the teens killed after he was believed to have mistakenly jumped from a bridge following a crash on a Carmel Valley freeway. According to the medical examiner, 18-year-old Ruben Ortiz Jr., died after jumping from the bridge on State Route 56 near Carmel Valley Road around 11 p.m. Tuesday. The other teen who died after jumping from the bridge was a 17-year-old male California Highway Patrol says was the driver of the vehicle. A family friend says the 17-year-old was Jesse Garcia. A gofundme page has been started for him here. Two teenage girls were also seriously injured. RELATED: 2 dead, 2 teen girls injured after jump from San Diego bridge following car crashAccording to the CHP, a Nissan Altima was traveling on the road when the car spun out for unknown reasons and crashed into a barrier. CHP says when the car came to a stop, it was facing oncoming traffic. Witnesses told CHP that six people got out of the car, running across the freeway lanes toward the right shoulder to avoid oncoming traffic. Four people from the group then jumped over the right shoulder, not realizing they were jumping off the bridge, CHP says. The four fell 50-75 feet from the structure, and CHP officials said two males died at the scene.A 14-year-old girl and 15-year-old girl were taken to Scripps La Jolla Hospital with injuries of unknown severity.The two others from the group, who reportedly fled the scene after the crash, were located by police late Tuesday night, according to CHP. One of the teenagers is 14-years-old while the other is 15. RELATED: Man falls from SR-125 after crashAccording to Escondido police, the vehicle involved in the crash was involved in two separate police chases on July 9. Police say the responded to a crash on Broadway and North Avenue. Although the Altima wasn't involved in that crash, officers reported that they saw people getting into the vehicle who may have been involved in the crash.When officers tried to pull the Altima over, the driver sped away. The second pursuit happened later in the day around 12:30 p.m., police say.Both chases were terminated after police determined speeds were too high. 2204

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) — As counties across the state are able to reopen, some are seeing COVID-19 case numbers bounce back up.There's concern from business owners that the state's current approach to restrictions could put them in a constant state opening and closing. Forty miles east of San Diego is the small community of Descanso."I was born and raised in Descanso," said Melanie Schlumpberger.Staying true to her roots, Descanso is where Schlumpberger opened her small business, Americutz Salon."It was going great," Schlumpberger said. "I was super busy getting new clients all the time."Then came COVID-19 and the stay at home order."It was very hard not knowing how long we were going to be closed down for," she said.Schlumpberger said savings got her through until she could reopen, but that ended up being short-lived. Cases in San Diego County spiked, and a few weeks later, her doors closed again.She said after being closed for another six weeks, she could reopen under the new state's guidelines."It was really exciting when we got to open back up," said Schlumpberger.Then college started, some county metrics spiked, and business could once again be impacted."I don't want to close down again cause it's so hard," she said. "I don't want to lose all the stuff that I've worked for."Schlumpberger said her operation is safe, and there have been very few cases of COVID-19 in Descanso and the surrounding areas.According to the County of San Diego's COVID-19 dashboard cases by residence, San Diego has more than 19,000 confirmed cases. The county's data show Descanso has 12."If the county numbers go up, unfortunately, the businesses countywide have to adjust," said San Diego County Supervisor Jim Desmond.He says you can look at any county across the state and find a similar issue. Desmond says instead of ping-ponging people's lives, some decisions should be made at the local level."If a business is able to operate safely and follow all the safety protocols and we can enforce those safety protocols, then they should be able to open," he said.Reporter Adam Racusin asked California's Health and Human Services Agency Secretary Dr. Mark Ghaly if there should be a different approach for areas in counties not as impacted by COVID-19."Something we've long considered," Ghaly said. "You know we work very closely at the countywide level. We have throughout this entire response had many counties step forward and highlight exactly what your statement highlighted that we have differential levels of transmission throughout the different parts of the county. We continue to work with the county to figure out where those trends, especially those upward trends, where we might intervene, but certainly our approach has been county by county, countywide. We look forward to continuing to work with the San Diego leadership both on the health and the elected side to make sure that we do make the right decisions for that county broadly speaking, and we'll be looking forward to the upcoming week and those conversations."Ghaly said the state does empathize with the concern of the business owners and the idea of opening up just a few weeks ago to close back down.Schlumpberger is worried if her businesses is impacted again, it might not survive."I've put so much money and time into building my business and to just lose it because they keep closing us down again is not fair," she said.San Diego officials formally asked the governor to not include SDSU case numbers in the county’s overall total, however during a press conference Wednesday, Gov. Newsom said a special exemption would not be considered."You can't isolate, as if it's on an island, the campus community that is part of a larger community. So the answer is no," Newsom said. 3764

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) — As a woman lay paralyzed from a horrific accident, police say someone was inside her car, stealing from her.  The search for that thief is now turning to San Diego County."She was the nicest, most wonderful person I've ever known," said Don Nelson.Nelson says his wife of 27 years, Terri, was on her way to pick up her father for a hospital trip in August when a truck rear-ended her car at a stoplight in Riverside.  As she lay with her neck broken, amid the commotion of bystanders and first responders coming to her aid, police say someone got into her car and stole her purse.Detectives say within days of the accident, surveillance images show her using Terri's credit cards and writing checks in her name. Nelson says as some ,000 worth of purchases were made at various businesses, from fast food restaurants and Albertsons to Costco."I think that's the lowest form of life that could possibly be. You have to be a sorry person to do something like that," said Nelson.For three months, Terri was paralyzed and on a ventilator, until she passed last week from complications from the accident.  Her husband's grief is not the only emotion that consumes him. There is also anger. He's still dealing with collection agencies seeking money from the thief's shopping spree.  During that crime spree, police believe the woman rented a Nissan Rogue in Terri's name, before the CHP pulled that car over on a highway in San Diego County. The two men inside the car have yet to lead detectives to the woman, but police hope tips from the public will."I just can't believe a lightning bolt didn't strike the person. I hope they never run into me, and I know who they are," said Nelson.Nelson believes the rented car was pulled over near downtown San Diego, but the CHP has not confirmed that. If you have any information on the case, call the Riverside Police Department at 951-353-7115. 1936