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SAN DIEGO (KGTV) — The latest ABC News national polling average shows former Vice President Joe Biden leading President Donald Trump by 8 points.But a lot of people are wondering, can we trust the polls after what happened in 2016?The last time Donald Trump was on the ballot in 2016, the polls had him trailing former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton by an average of 3.2 percentage points, and we know what happened.However, pollsters weren’t off by as much as you might think.“At the national level, the polling was, remarkably, given all things, precise,” said Jay Leve, CEO of the polling firm SurveyUSA.Trump lost the popular vote by 2.1 points instead of 3.2, the most accurate these national polls had been in 80 years, according to an analysis by the American Association for Public Opinion Research.Where the polls did miss badly was at the state level, particularly in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, three states that were critical in the Electoral College.Leve said there were several reasons for the polling problems at the state level.“Polling is a very expensive undertaking and so it is not possible for the handful of media organizations with pockets deep enough to afford a public opinion poll to be able to poll in every critical battleground state,” he said.Another reason? “Some of it has to do with what’s called ‘weighting,’” he added.To understand weighting, you have to know the two R’s of a good poll: it needs to be representative and random.Random samples are critical to the accuracy of polling, and you can look to your kitchen for an example why. Picture adding salt to a soup. If you mix it right, you can check the taste with any one spoonful -- you don’t have to eat the entire pot. That’s because each spoonful is a truly random sample.If you don’t mix the salt in, you could easily wind up sampling a part of the soup without any salt.When you’re trying to sample the American public with a political poll, either over the phone or most of the time now online, it’s more challenging to get a perfectly random spoonful.“The challenge is to find the individuals in the right numbers and secure their cooperation. Those two things don’t automatically work in sync,” Leve said. “People don’t want to be disturbed. They want privacy and a pollster by definition is an interruption.”It turns out, certain people tend to resist taking polls, while others are more willing. Research shows people with college degrees are more likely to respond to surveys than high school grads.That means surveys run the risk of not being representative of the voter population at large, and Leve said that kind of imbalance played a big role in 2016.To make a sample representative, pollsters gather up as many responses as they can, then adjust them with a process called weighting -- basically boosting or shrinking responses from people with certain demographics to match census data and the expected turnout.“The weighting criteria that was in issue in 2016 was whether you had enough non-college educated white voters in your sample,” Leve said. “If you did, you got the Trump forecast correct.”State polls that didn’t weight by education level missed badly, because to an extent far greater than in previous elections, voters with a college education broke for Clinton while voters with a high school education backed Trump.There’s some evidence that pollsters have learned from their 2016 mistakes. Polling in the 2018 midterms was very accurate -- a full point better than the average over the last 20 years.So can we trust the polls this time around?Leve says yes, as long as you remember that polls are just a snapshot in time and Donald Trump is difficult to predict.“Don’t be surprised if something happens in the final four, five, six days of the election, right before November 3rd, that’s so unforeseeable that neither you nor I nor anyone watching us could have imagined. And if so, that’s going to throw all the polls off,” he said. 3979

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) -- The all-clear was given after a suspicious device forced the evacuation of a building at San Diego City College Monday. The device was reported Monday afternoon in or near Building A, according to the school. The building serves as administrative offices. The college says no classes were affected by the evacuation. The building, as well as a cafeteria will remain closed for the remainder of the day. 431

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) — The City of San Diego could go to court to invalidate a landmark pension reform measure that voters overwhelmingly supported in 2012.The City Council is expected to meet in closed session the week June 10 to decide whether to ask a judge to throw out Measure B. The measure switched most new hires from pensions to 401(k) style retirement plans. More than 65 percent of San Diego voters supported Measure B in 2012. The problem, however, is that the measure got to the ballot via a citizens initiative, but then-Mayor Jerry Sanders campaigned on its behalf. Labor unions challenged the initiative in court, contending the mayor's involvement meant the city needed to meet and confer with them. The state Supreme Court agreed, and an appellate court ordered the city to make its employees whole, plus pay them 7 percent interest. The courts, however, did not invalidate Measure B, instead directing the city to work out a compromise with the unions. On Thursday, City Councilman Scott Sherman and former Councilman Carl DeMaio held a news conference pushing the city to protect Measure B."Right now we are being asked to go against what our bosses told us, and I don't think we should do that," Sherman said, adding that the city spends 0 million a year now meeting its minimum pension obligations. DeMaio said he would work with a coalition to go to court to protect Measure B. "I'm talking about putting the City of San Diego back on the brink of bankruptcy, let alone telling voters that they don't have a say on where their tax dollars go," he said. Early estimates indicate the amount needed to make employees whole ranges from negligible to million.Michael Zucchet, who heads the Municipal Employees Association, said the only rational way to move forward is to invalidate Measure B."It is time for the City and its citizens to move forward by ending the Prop B debacle with the least amount of additional litigation and expense, and at the same time help address the City’s severe recruitment and retention challenges brought about because San Diego is the only City in California with no defined benefit pension nor Social Security benefits for newly hired employees," Zucchet said in a statement.Mayor Kevin Faulconer said in a statement he would oppose any effort to get rid of Measure B. "Voters demanded pension reform and we should respect that, plain and simple," Faulconer said. The mayor cannot vote, however, in the decision facing the City Council. 2500

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) - The coronavirus pandemic is preventing many seniors in skilled nursing facilities from seeing their families. UC San Diego students are working to help combat their loneliness with their Sunshine 4 Seniors project. Students would spend their weekends visiting seniors as part of a volunteer project before classes were canceled at UC San Diego. The pandemic halted their visits. "We came up with this project, which was creating cards for seniors at St. Paul Senior Services," says student Olivia Michael. The goal of the project is for students to "step in and fill the loneliness and isolation that the senior citizen communities are feeling, especially during this pandemic," says Morgan Montoya. The students say loneliness in seniors can have damaging effects on the brain. "Olivia and I are near-cognitive science majors," says Montoya. "Our majors really helped us to understand the problems that loneliness poses. With senior citizens having an abundance of isolation and loneliness, it can actually deregulate the brain and cause a progression of Alzheimer's or depression."The Sunshine 4 Seniors project launched nearly a month ago. So far, more than 200 cards have been sent to seniors in skilled nursing facilities. The students say there are thousands of seniors who are not allowed to see their loved ones during this time. They hope to spread some sunshine to as many seniors as they can. "The goal is just to get as many people writing cards as possible," says Michael. "Any means that you have to do it, I just encourage you to get started." 1586

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) - The father whose two children died in a Rancho Bernardo home fire in 2017 was found guilty on all counts Monday. Jurors found Henry Lopez guilty of two counts of child endangerment, recklessly causing a fire causing great bodily injury, and two counts of involuntary manslaughter in the death of his two children.Prosecutors argued Lopez fell asleep with a lit cigarette, starting the fire that killed 7-year-old Isabella and 10-year-old Cristos and destroyed his condominium. Lopez’ attorney said a defective cell phone was the likely ignition source. Lopez woke up to find his home on fire and tried to escape but passed out from smoke, investigators said. Firefighters later found him and took him to the hospital. Deputy District Attorney Kyle Sutterley said Cristos died of burns to more than 80 percent of his body and Isabella died of smoke inhalation. "A parent has a responsibility to care for their children, a responsibility to protect their children, and if need be, to sacrifice themselves for their children. And Henry Lopez, on Oct. 28, 2017, he failed his children, and as a result, one of them burned to death, and one of them went to sleep and never woke up,'' Sutterley said in his closing argument. Lopez faced up to 16 years and 8 months in prison. 1296

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