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SAN DIEGO (KGTV) — After the polls close on Election Night, ABC News and the other major networks will start projecting winners and “calling” races, in some cases well before the official vote counts are finalized.They’ll do it by relying on data from a New Jersey-based company called Edison Research.Edison provides exit polls, survey data, and vote counts for ABC, NBC, CBS and CNN. The company has provided data for this group of networks, known as the National Election Pool, since 2004.“We know what we're doing is really, really important,” said the company’s president Larry Rosin.In certain races, networks will project a winner shortly after the polls close, sometimes before state election officials report any official vote totals. Such a projection is nicknamed an “insta-call” in the news business.Networks only make insta-calls in races where Edison’s exit polls and telephone surveys in the days leading up to the election show a decisive winner, Rosin said.ABC News only issues a projection when statistical models overseen by a team of mathematicians and elections experts show a winner with 99.5 percent confidence.Each network has its own team of experts that crunch Edison’s numbers. Fox News makes projections based on data provided by the Associated Press.When a race is close, the network decision teams turn to more complicated math.“It’s a matter of looking at that historical vote all the way down to the precinct or county level and comparing how the vote is coming in, in that state up to that point,” said Rosin.On Election Night, Edison has thousands of employees fanned out in virtually every county across the nation, monitoring the vote count as it comes in and manually reporting the totals when necessary. There are other employees whose job is to check the numbers for accuracy.Edison’s data helps networks understand how preliminary vote totals compare to the way regions voted in the past, which is an important metric in an election forecast.“If every precinct was just a little bit more Republican than it had been four years ago, you have a good sense that all the other precincts that are similar will likely be a little more Republican, and the Republican will do a little better than four years ago,” Rosin said as an example.Using those kinds of trends, the networks then forecast how many ballots are still left to be counted, and what kind of ballots those are -- either in-person early votes, in-person votes on Election Day, or mail-in votes.At that point it comes down to a formula, comparing the known reported votes to the outstanding votes a candidate is likely to gain.“It’s a very high pressure project, but I’m proud to say that no network has made an incorrect call since the 2004 cycle,” which was Edison’s first year providing election data to the networks, Rosin said.The company started doing this after the debacle in 2000, when networks incorrectly called the race in Florida between George W. Bush and Al Gore. Rosin said a lot of things have changed since then.“The pressure to make calls correctly really superseded the pressure to call quickly,” he said.This year could be a challenging one to forecast, Rosin said, with so many more mail-in ballots because of the pandemic. Mail-in ballots take longer to process because election workers have to compare the signature on the mail-in ballot against the signature a voter has on file.For that reason, Rosin said it may take a while for the networks to call races in certain key battleground states that start their counting process late, like Pennsylvania and Michigan. 3594

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) — An infectious disease expert at San Diego State University says early research suggests the COVID-19 pandemic could cause a spike in another, more deadly respiratory disease: tuberculosis.An estimated one in four people on the planet is already infected with TB without knowing it. The bacterium that causes the disease can lie dormant for years, even decades, waiting for the right moment to strike.San Diego State University professor Dr. Faramarz Valafar says SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, could be just the right pathogen to trigger more TB cases to activate, both worldwide and in the U.S. And the symptoms of COVID-19 could help spread the TB bacteria more efficiently.“COVID-19 could act as a vehicle for transmission of tuberculosis,” he said. “This is a significant public health risk.”In the early 1900s, TB was the number one cause of death in the U.S. Today, it remains one of the top 10 causes of death worldwide with about 1.5 million deaths each year, although deaths in the U.S. are now rare. There were 515 deaths in the U.S. in 2017, the most recent data available.Although the tuberculosis is mostly curable and preventable with antibiotics, some strains have become drug-resistant.“I believe it's naive to think that because there is not much tuberculosis here in the United States, it’s going to remain that way,” said Valafar. “We now have a vehicle for the transmission of all sorts of tuberculosis strains from around the world to the United States.”The CDC estimates up to 13 million people in the U.S. have latent TB. Studies have shown the disease can activate when the immune system is weakened, including by HIV.“If COVID-19 comes in and keeps the immune system busy or overburdened, then my first worry is that tuberculosis in those people could activate,” he said.A small study out of China that has not yet been peer-reviewed suggests people with latent TB are at a higher risk of developing severe COVID symptoms. Other experts have raised concerns about the pandemic could exacerbate TB infections.Valafar said his second worry is that the symptoms of COVID-19 could help spread tuberculosis. Both pathogens take hold in the lungs and cause coughing.“If the person has tuberculosis, all it takes is for COVID-19 to make that person cough or sneeze and there will be a much higher risk of tuberculosis transmission,” he said.Valafar and his team are already studying the effects of TB and HIV in South Africa. They plan to soon expand their study to examine the effects of COVID-19 as well, with results expected in about a year.In the meantime, he’s sounding the alarm to urge people to heed public health warnings. Masks, hygiene and social distancing don’t just protect against COVID-19. They protect against TB as well.“It's so much more important that people really follow those instructions,” he said. 2881

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) -- A San Diego man was arrested Saturday after allegedly assaulting an elderly woman at a Central Coast beach parking lot in San Luis Obispo, law officials said.Morro Bay Police Officers responded to a disturbance call at around 1 p.m. at the Morro Rock parking lot on Coleman Drive, authorities said.Witnesses told officers that the suspect assaulted an elderly woman and knocked her to the ground. Numerous people witnessed the attack and went to help the victim, according to police.Officials said the woman was treated by first responders for moderate injuries.In a press release, officials said Brian Robert Sprinkle, 39, of La Jolla, "was participating in a surf competition when he exited the water and assaulted the woman without provocation."Sprinkle was booked in the San Luis Obispo County Jail on felony charges of elder abuse and battery, according to Morro Bay police.Officers also found a firearm with Sprinkle's property and seized it.It is believed the suspect was under the influence of marijuana and hallucinogenic drugs, police said in a statement.Anyone with information regarding this incident is asked to contact the Morro Bay Police Department (805) 772-6225.While police say Sprinkle was taking part in the Big, Bad and Ugly surf competition, surf contest organizers tell KSBY News he was not registered with the contest and is not affiliated with any of the surf clubs that participated.ABC 10News affiliate KSBY News contributed to this report. 1497

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) - A young woman who stopped to check on other drivers involved in a multi-vehicle collision on state Route 94 Thursday morning was struck by an SUV and killed.Family and friends held a vigil for Bertha Estrada Thursday evening near the E-94 onramp on F Street. 290

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) - An ash-filled stolen trailer in Miramar contained heartbreak for more than 100 military families in the form of hand-carved model aircraft burned and damaged. Many of the coveted items are simply too far gone from the damages."They are hand-carved, hand-painted and personalized," said John Pineda, who owns Squadron Toys.He says his model aircraft are ordered by service members and veterans - and their loved ones to commemorate service. Many of them are gifts for a retirement or Christmas.Those gifts disappeared overnight, in minutes."We are heartbroken," said Pineda. He showed 10News the surveillance video.Just past 1 a.m. on Nov. 3, a U-Haul truck drives into the parking lot. Five minutes later, you can see it again, this time hauling Pineda's trailer, filled with more than a hundred model aircraft to be shipped out the next morning.The discovery of his trailer missing was followed a week later by a call from the CHP.The trailer was found on fire on a street in Vista. He towed it back Thursday.Pineda looked in the trailer and found about 60 of the models were missing. There were also burned model planes and helicopters. The others have scratches and water damage from the firefight. All are ruined.Since each aircraft takes four months to make, they won't be done in time for Christmas."Whoever is responsible actually stole Christmas from a lot of people," said Pineda.Each model cost several hundred dollars and is personalized with a name, call sign and squadron markings.If you have any information on the case, call Crime Stoppers at 888-580-8477. 1618