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SAN DIEGO (KGTV) — After the polls close on Election Night, ABC News and the other major networks will start projecting winners and “calling” races, in some cases well before the official vote counts are finalized.They’ll do it by relying on data from a New Jersey-based company called Edison Research.Edison provides exit polls, survey data, and vote counts for ABC, NBC, CBS and CNN. The company has provided data for this group of networks, known as the National Election Pool, since 2004.“We know what we're doing is really, really important,” said the company’s president Larry Rosin.In certain races, networks will project a winner shortly after the polls close, sometimes before state election officials report any official vote totals. Such a projection is nicknamed an “insta-call” in the news business.Networks only make insta-calls in races where Edison’s exit polls and telephone surveys in the days leading up to the election show a decisive winner, Rosin said.ABC News only issues a projection when statistical models overseen by a team of mathematicians and elections experts show a winner with 99.5 percent confidence.Each network has its own team of experts that crunch Edison’s numbers. Fox News makes projections based on data provided by the Associated Press.When a race is close, the network decision teams turn to more complicated math.“It’s a matter of looking at that historical vote all the way down to the precinct or county level and comparing how the vote is coming in, in that state up to that point,” said Rosin.On Election Night, Edison has thousands of employees fanned out in virtually every county across the nation, monitoring the vote count as it comes in and manually reporting the totals when necessary. There are other employees whose job is to check the numbers for accuracy.Edison’s data helps networks understand how preliminary vote totals compare to the way regions voted in the past, which is an important metric in an election forecast.“If every precinct was just a little bit more Republican than it had been four years ago, you have a good sense that all the other precincts that are similar will likely be a little more Republican, and the Republican will do a little better than four years ago,” Rosin said as an example.Using those kinds of trends, the networks then forecast how many ballots are still left to be counted, and what kind of ballots those are -- either in-person early votes, in-person votes on Election Day, or mail-in votes.At that point it comes down to a formula, comparing the known reported votes to the outstanding votes a candidate is likely to gain.“It’s a very high pressure project, but I’m proud to say that no network has made an incorrect call since the 2004 cycle,” which was Edison’s first year providing election data to the networks, Rosin said.The company started doing this after the debacle in 2000, when networks incorrectly called the race in Florida between George W. Bush and Al Gore. Rosin said a lot of things have changed since then.“The pressure to make calls correctly really superseded the pressure to call quickly,” he said.This year could be a challenging one to forecast, Rosin said, with so many more mail-in ballots because of the pandemic. Mail-in ballots take longer to process because election workers have to compare the signature on the mail-in ballot against the signature a voter has on file.For that reason, Rosin said it may take a while for the networks to call races in certain key battleground states that start their counting process late, like Pennsylvania and Michigan. 3594
SAN DIEGO (KGTV) – Adapting to new restrictions is now routine for businesses in the age of coronavirus. The latest set of rules handed down by Governor Newsom is not sitting well with salon owner Shanelle Cedeno.“Now it just feels like a target," Cedeno says.As hospitals become overwhelmed with surging cases, ICU capacity is the state’s newest metric for tightening restrictions.RELATED: Gov. Newsom: New California stay-at-home order triggered by ICU capacityOnce available capacity falls below 15%, only schools that have received waivers can stay open along with critical infrastructure.Retail can stay open at 20% capacity and restaurants will be restricted to take out and delivery. Bars wineries, salons, and barbershops will have to close their doors completely.Cedeno says her "Beautiful You" salon in Barrio Logan is already implementing every safety measure asked of them.RELATED: San Diego hospitals react to Newsom’s regional stay-at-home order“Everybody who comes in is one on one, how we run our business is very clean very sanitized,” said Cedeno.She says the new rules are unfair since the county’s numbers indicate salons and barbershops only make up 2.5% of community exposure settings.“A lot of these cases are just coming from people’s personal lives and not following the rules outside of where they come into businesses,” said Cedeno.The timeline is still uncertain for when salons will have to close. Until then, Cedeno says they’re moving up appointments before it’s too late.“We are making our reach-outs to have them come in today and tomorrow,” said Cedeno. “We’re San Diego, we got this. We’re all in this together.” 1655
SAN DIEGO (KGTV) -- A VA hospital specialty clinic in La Jolla was evacuated Thursday afternoon due to a gas leak, the San Diego Fire-Rescue Department confirmed. According to the Department, the VA San Diego Healthcare System hospital's spinal cord facility on the 3300 block of La Jolla Village Drive was evacuated just before 3 p.m. The gas leak happened inside the two-story building, the department said. By 3:45 p.m., the situation was under control and evacuees were allowed to return.It’s unclear what caused the gas leak at this time. 10News will continue to keep you updated as soon as we receive more information. 633
SAN DIEGO (KGTV) - A three-day conference is underway at the University of San Diego and its partner schools around the county.It's the 7th Annual Conference on Civility & Civic Dialogue. Moderators and local journalists are discussing the serious threat fake news and deliberate disinformation poses on the country's democracy."Journalism is called the fourth estate of American democracy, without a free press and a believed and trusted press our democracy simply is not going to survive," said conference moderator and political science professor, Dr. Carl Luna.Public trust of the media has hit historic lows in recent years and panelists discussed ways organizations can earn back the public's trust. The San Diego Public Library system offers the public media literacy courses, offering tools to recognize the difference between real news and "fake" news.The Society of Professional Journalists also offers online tools for public use. 958
SAN DIEGO (KGTV) — An Ocean Beach man was injured after two men stormed his home, beat him, and robbed him.Police say the 34-year-old victim was at his home on Cape May Ave. with a woman, possibly an ex-girlfriend, when there was a knock at the door at about 10 p.m.The woman answered the door and two men forced their way inside, one wielding an expandable baton and the other with a knife, police said.A struggle began between the victim and two suspects and the two men beat the victim several times, before ordering him to open a safe.After the suspect was unable to open the safe, the suspects rummaged through the home and stole several items, including credit cards. The two men then fled.The woman fled shortly after as well.The victim was treated at a nearby hospital for non-life threatening injuries.Police described the suspect with a baton as a 20- to 25-year-old white male, 5-foot 10-inches, with thin build. He was wearing dark clothing and may have had his face painted black, police added. The man with the knife was described as a 25- to 30-year-old Hispanic man, 6-feet tall, weighing about 220 pounds, and wearing a black sweatshirt and jeans. The woman was fled was described as a 20- to 21-year-old black female, 5-foot 5-inches, and with thin build.Anyone with information is asked to call San Diego Police at 619-531-2000 or Crime Stoppers at 888-580-8477. 1389