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President Donald Trump and Former Vice President Joe Biden are squaring off for the first presidential debate in Cleveland. But do debates make a difference when it comes to the actual result? DEBATE HISTORY The first presidential debate between general election candidates on television was in 1960. Immediately, there was an impact with viewers reporting they felt Richard Nixon looked ill compared to the young Sen. John F. Kennedy. Nixon elected to not wear makeup and often had a sweaty lip during much of the debate, while Kennedy wore makeup. The next presidential debate didn't happen until 1976 when sitting President Gerald Ford delivered the first major gaffe in a debate. Ford claimed, "there is no Soviet domination of Eastern Europe." At the time, all of Eastern Europe experienced some influence from the Soviet Union. Humor has often been used in debates as well. In 1984, President Ronald Reagan was criticized for his age during his reelection campaign. Reagan responded to the moderator's question by saying, "I want you to know that also I will not make age an issue of this campaign. I am not going to exploit, for political purposes, my opponent's youth and inexperience."IMPACT ON RESULTSHowever, since 1984, there are few examples of debates dramatically shaping the race. In every election, except 2000 and 2016, the candidate leading going into the debate ended up winning the presidency. As a result, more articles have been written like this in recent years: "Debates don't matter the way people think they do." 1549

President Donald Trump could ask Kirstjen Nielsen, his secretary of Homeland Security, to resign in the coming days, multiple officials familiar with the matter predicted, describing the President's continued frustration at her handling of his signature issue: immigration and border security.It's not clear who would succeed her, or whether the White House has potential replacements lined up. And the timing of her departure would ultimately be up to Trump, who has been known to change his mind on personnel matters in the past.Nielsen is expecting Trump to ask for her resignation at any time, officials said.The Washington Post reported Monday that Trump has told advisers he has decided to remove Nielsen and that he wants her out as soon as possible, citing five current and former White House officials.Trump has vented privately that Nielsen hasn't adequately secured the border or enacted stricter immigration rules, even as she became the face of policies that administration critics called heartless and illegal, according to people familiar with the matter.Asked to comment, Tyler Houlton, a DHS spokesman, said Nielsen "is honored to lead the men and women of DHS and is committed to implementing the President's security-focused agenda to protect Americans from all threats and will continue to do so." The White House did not immediately return CNN's request for comment.Nielsen's potential departure would come after a midterm election campaign in which Trump focused heavily on immigration, often overlooking economic matters in favor of false or fear-mongering language about a crisis at the southern border.Nielsen, who served in President George W. Bush's administration, never overcame internal skepticism about her allegiance to Trump. She joined the administration as chief of staff to John Kelly, who was Trump's first Homeland Security secretary.When Kelly moved to the West Wing as chief of staff, Nielsen followed, becoming a deputy chief of staff tasked with helping Kelly bring rigor to a freewheeling staff.Nielsen is widely viewed as an acolyte of Kelly, the retired Marine general who has his own complicated relationship with the President. Kelly has staunchly defended Nielsen against criticism of her performance on immigration-related matters. He's also been forced to defend her to the President, who has expressed suspicion over the jobs she held in the Bush administration.Trump has angrily aired his frustrations with Nielsen's handling of border security during contentious meetings at the White House, claiming she isn't up to the task of fulfilling the campaign promises he made to curb illegal immigration. That, in turn, has led to an internal dynamic where some officials have griped to the President about Nielsen's performance in order to gain favor with him.The President has not sought to quell that dynamic, believing that pitting camps of aides against each other is a way to produce better results. But the constant arrows have led Nielsen to tell some associates that she is unhappy in her post.The-CNN-Wire 3070

President Donald Trump predicted on Friday that the US would have enough coronavirus vaccines for anyone who wanted one to have one by April 2021.Trump’s timeline is a bit sped up compared to timeframes offered by several government experts, including CDC Director Robert Redfield and Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases. Fauci and Redfield have suggested the a potential coronavirus vaccine would be widely available by the middle of 2021.Trump said that the US would begin distributing vaccines within 24 hours of FDA approval of a vaccine, which he has suggested could happen as soon as the end of October.“We will have manufactured at least 100 million vaccine doses before the end of the year,” Trump said. “And likely much more than that. Hundreds of millions of doses will be available every month and we expect to have enough vaccines for every American by April. Again, I will say even at that later stage, delivery will go as fast as it comes, they can deliver.”Dr. Scott Atlas, a neurosurgeon who recently joined the White House coronavirus task force, agreed with Trump’s timeline. The highest risk Americans could expect to be vaccinated by January.“The people on the prioritized lists, including high risk and first responders will have the ability to take the vaccine. At the latest, in January,” Atlas said.“There will be hundreds of millions of doses delivered for people to take it during the first quarter [of 2021] and so that by April, every single American who wants to be vaccinated will have the ability to be vaccinated. It is not a forced vaccination,” Atlas added.Redfield said it might not be until the middle of 2021 before a vaccine is widely available."I think we're probably looking at third late second quarter, third quarter 2021,” he said on Wednesday.Trump later said that Redfield was “confused” over the timing of a vaccine."I think he made a mistake when he said that,” Trump said. “That's just incorrect information. I called him and he didn't tell me that and I think he got the message maybe confused. maybe it was stated incorrectly.”Trump said on Friday that he thinks the timeline given by Redfield and Fauci can be shortened “considerably.”There are several vaccines in Phase 3 testing. Even though a vaccine could be approved by year’s end, trials will be expected to continue for over a year to monitor for possible side effects.According to the FDA, a typical Phase 3 trial would take one to three years. 2514

President Donald Trump argued Friday that trade wars can be good, even though his promise of steel and aluminum tariffs rattled markets."When a country (USA) is losing many billions of dollars on trade with virtually every country it does business with, trade wars are good, and easy to win," Trump wrote on Twitter.He added, "Example, when we are down 0 billion with a certain country and they get cute, don't trade anymore-we win big. It's easy!"Trump's plan, announced on Thursday, will impose a 25% tariff on steel imports and 10% tariff on aluminum. The announcement caught investors off guard and immediately raised concerns about retaliation from China or other major US trading partners.   718

President Donald Trump couldn't get Obamacare repeal, an infrastructure plan or a border wall, but there's one big wish-list item he's succeeded in conjuring into reality: tax cuts.The greatest policy success of his first year in office was passing a landmark tax reform, something the Republican Party hadn't been able to do despite decades of trying.Now, with only two weeks left before voters go to the polls, he's promising middle-class voters another tax cut, with a plan coming before the midterms -- though his fellow Republicans in Congress, which is in recess through the election, have said they aren't aware of any such proposal already in the works.Speaking in the Oval Office on Tuesday, Trump said a "resolution" would be introduced in Congress next week outlining a "pure 10% tax cut" on top of what middle-class Americans received last year.His comments came a day after he promised at a rally in Texas that the top Republican tax-writer in Congress, House Ways and Means chair Kevin Brady, was already at work: "It's going to be put in next week. Ten percent tax cut. Kevin Brady is working on it. We have been working on it for a few months. That is in addition to the big tax cuts you have already gotten."Brady's office, after initially referring questions to the White House, said in a statement Tuesday that a plan is in development -- and suggested that it would be passed if the GOP can maintain control over both the House and Senate. "We will continue to work with the White House and Treasury over the coming weeks to develop an additional 10% tax cut focused specifically on middle-class families and workers, to be advanced as Republicans retain the House and Senate."So far, the White House has offered no concrete details on the fresh tax proposal or how it would be paid for amid a ballooning federal deficit as a result of last year's .5 trillion tax cut and a massive spending bill. Peter Navarro, one of the President's top trade advisers, told CNN chief business correspondent Christine Romans on Tuesday the White House is considering a proposal that would be "revenue neutral," adding a tax cut for the middle-class would be a "really good thing for this country."Trump's tax comments, starting over the weekend, sent Washington into a frenzy of trying to figure out what he was talking about.Aides on Capitol Hill scrambled to figure out what he meant -- and in the House, sent them scrambling to figure out if they could, or even needed to, draft something that would address what the President was promising. In the Senate, GOP officials said calls and e-mails were sent to their House counterparts for guidance this past weekend, only to find out there wasn't any -- nobody was sure what exactly the President was referencing.With both chambers still under Republican control, legislative proposals can move quickly if prioritized by leadership, including bypassing the committee process altogether. But there are currently no plans to do anything of the sort, the aides said -- primarily because nobody has pinned down what, exactly, the President wants."Your guess is as good as mine," said one senior House GOP aide. As to whether something could eventually happen? "I guess," the aide said. "But it's not like we don't have a lot on our plate after the election."The President's top economic adviser, Larry Kudlow, sought on Tuesday to temper expectations, suggesting a tax cut may not materialize for some time."It may not surface for a while," Kudlow told reporters in a driveway gaggle. "But that's his goal. That's his policy intent. I don't see anything wrong with that."Kudlow nevertheless stressed that Trump managed to get his first tax cut through, too, against expectations."Take him seriously when he comes out with these things," Kudlow said. "That's been his pattern for a long time. People should not underestimate that."The whole episode echoes almost note-for-note the origin of Trump's first tax bill, which originated with a promise by the president to unveil details of a historic tax overhaul plan in "one week" ahead of his 100-day mark in office.At the time, most people knew that staff at Treasury had yet to begin substantial work on anything. The 2017 tax reform was initially introduced as a one-page summary by Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and then-National Economic Council Director Gary Cohn in a hasty April 2017 White House briefing room appearance -- but that document was written into the plan that ultimately passed Congress and landed on Trump's desk in December."Trump benefitted by a lot of work that was done already by the House GOP led by Kevin Brady and Paul Ryan," said Kyle Pomerleau, an economist at the Tax Foundation, a non-profit think tank in Washington. "I am not sure I can give this method credit. Tax reform had been on the minds of Hill staffers for a while by the time Trump announced the details were coming."The President's latest tax pitch appears strategically designed to rally Republican voters ahead of the midterm elections next month. GOP leaders have been increasingly frustrated that last year's tax cuts aren't resonating with Americans as much as they hoped.Messaging by Democrats that the administration's tax law was overly generous to the rich and big corporations appears to have won over public opinion, polls show."If the President had only talked about our actual tax cut for the last year, he wouldn't have to be proposing a fake one now and our members would be in far better shape," a senior Republican congressional aide told CNN late Monday night.Top administration officials have repeatedly tried to sell last year's tax cut as a lift for middle-class Americans' pocketbooks."You know, we've already given the middle class, with an income of ,000, you got about a ,000 tax hike, and you're going to get a wage increase," Council of Economic Advisers chairman Kevin Hassett said Tuesday in a call with reporters. "He's saying ... now, that after the election he's going to pursue giving people an additional 10% tax cut."But comments by Navarro in his CNN interview Tuesday underscored the sweep of the corporate elements in the package."For me, the beauty of the Trump tax cut was on the corporate side," said Navarro in an interview. "As somebody who watched with dismay over a decade have our jobs move off shore in part because of unfair trade practices but also in part because of a high corporate tax rate here, it was really great to get that corporate tax rate down to 21 percent."Trump has in recent days expressed his dissatisfaction that the fallout over dissident Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi's death has eclipsed his efforts on the campaign trail, multiple sources with knowledge of the situation told CNN.The tax idea surfaced publicly over the weekend, with Trump's initial comments on Saturday amplified by Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin in an interview with The New York Times in Israel. Mnuchin said he's been working on a tax plan with Brady that would be unveiled "shortly."He described the new initiative as "different" than a tax bill that that passed the House earlier in the September to make individual tax cuts permanent. They are currently set to expire in 2025.Tax policy analysts were left to surmise possible explanations of what the President meant, with the prevailing view being that Trump was referring to a 0 billion tax cut that would link capital gains taxes to inflation.Earlier this summer, Mnuchin said Treasury was looking into whether the agency could use its regulatory powers to make a unilateral change on capital gains, bypassing Congress.But Trump made clear on Monday, en route to the rally in Houston that he had no intention of bypassing Congress: "We're putting in a resolution sometime in the next week-and-a-half or two weeks." 7835