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The University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation now projects that 67,000 American lives would be saved between now and December 1 by near universal wearing of masks.The IHME released the updated model on Thursday. As part of the update, the IHME said that four states, Arizona, Florida, Mississippi, and South Carolina, have hit an important metric of a daily death rate of eight per one million residents, and that those states should re-impose statewide closures of non-essential businesses.The IHME’s coronavirus projections have been frequently cited in the past by the White House’s coronavirus task force. The group uses state data along with other metrics to create projections on the number of coronavirus-related deaths throughout the US.The model projects with inconsistent use of masks, the US death toll for the coronavirus will be up to 295,000 by December 1, an increase from the current figure of 158,000, per Johns Hopkins University data. The IHME’s projections drops considerably to 228,000 if masks are worn universally outside of the home.IHME director Dr. Christopher Murray said at a news conference on Thursday that mask wearing mandates work, but communities also respond when they see cases are spreading.“People do respond to the circumstances in their community,” Murray said. “Mandates have an important effect.”One thing the model does not take into account is the use of therapeutics of a possible vaccine. Murray said that the IHME is closely monitoring the effectiveness of two potential therapeutics – remdesivir and dexamethasone – and may adjust future models as more is learned about those drugs.The model expects the number of coronavirus-related deaths to ebb and flow into the fall, but begin to increase by November. "November is a month we expect the spread to increase due to seasonality," Murray said. We are expecting considerable daily deaths. That pushes up our projections."“We expect it rise later in the fall,” Murray added.One cause for concern comes at the end of November when families begin to travel for holidays such as Thanksgiving.Murray said that while mask-wearing is not necessary when around family members of the same household, he said mask-wearing may be necessary for holiday gatherings. Murray said his family is taking the recommendation one step further, and is simply not gathering with extended relatives this fall.What’s built into the IHME’s projection is that a number of states will need to implement stricter closures in order to slow the spread. As part of the IHME’s recommendation, states implement closures of non-essential businesses when there is a threshold of eight deaths a day per million. Also part of the modeling is based on 50% of schools being closed in each state for the upcoming year. Murray said with many schools opening or implementing hybrid models, more will be learned in the coming weeks on how easily the virus spreads within schools.Recent measures in Arizona, California, Florida, and Texas has allowed a small decline in cases, but deaths in those states have not dropped off, according to Murray.“We have been seeing cases peaking and hospitalizations peaking and deaths not quite yet peaking, but we expect them to peak in the near future but we don’t expect a sharp decline," Murray said.To see a state-by-state breakdown of the IHME’s projections, click here. 3403
The United States has set another record for new coronavirus cases. More than 50,000 new cases were reported Wednesday, a single day record.For comparison, it took over two months to record that number of cases nationwide when the pandemic started.New cases have increased in at least 37 states over the past week. But Dr. Anthony Fauci says it's not too late to turn the surge around."It does not have to be 100,000 cases a day,” said Dr. Anthony Fauci, Director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases. “I used that number because I wanted to jolt people. If you leave the virus to its own devices, it will take off on you."The stark numbers have prompted state officials to issue warnings about gatherings for the Fourth of July weekend. Doctors say it could be a “perfect storm” for another spike.The mayor of Houston fears hospitals could reach capacity by mid-July if people don't help change the trajectory."Unless the behavior changes and people will engage in social distancing and wearing their masks and proper hygiene, there could reach a point where they are really at their limit," said Mayor Sylvester Turner. 1153
The White House is again rejecting calls for a national mask-wearing mandate.White House chief of staff Mark Meadows says in an appearance on “Fox and Friends” Monday morning that the president sees the issue as a “state-to-state” matter.He says that, “certainly a national mandate is not in order” and that “we’re allowing our local governors and our local mayors to weigh in on that.”New Jersey’s Democratic Gov. Phil Murphy has said he’d like to see a national strategy on the coronavirus, including a mask requirement. He says his state is seeing “small spikes in reinfection” from residents coming back from Florida, South Carolina and other virus hotspots, and the U.S. is “as strong as our weakest link right now.”Vice President Mike Pence has also rejected the idea of a national mandate, saying that’s up to governors and local health officials. 862
The Trump campaign has dropped a central part of its lawsuit that seeks to delay the certification of election results in Pennsylvania, the state which proved to be the tipping point for Joe Biden in clinching the presidency.On Sunday, the Trump campaign dropped a portion of a lawsuit that alleged that more than 600,000 mail-in and absentee ballots were processed without Republican poll-watchers present. The claim has been a central part of President Donald Trump's argument that the 2020 election has been beset by widespread voter fraud.The Trump campaign's lawsuit now only focuses on claims that Republicans were "illegally disadvantaged" because some voters in Democratic-leaning counties were afforded the ability to fix mistakes on their mail-in ballots, a process called "curing." The Washington Post reports that the issue would likely only affect a small number of votes.Ballot curing is a process that takes place in several states. According to The Associated Press, there is no provision in Pennsylvania state law that prevents counties from affording voters the opportunity to cure ballots.Biden currently holds a lead of about 70,000 votes over Trump, with nearly all of the votes counted.Despite his campaign's altered lawsuit, Trump on Sunday continued to claim on Twitter — without providing evidence — that poll watchers "were thrown out of vote counting rooms in many of our States."Late Sunday evening, Trump tweeted, "I WON THE ELECTION!" a claim that quickly prompted Twitter to add a clarification to his message clarifying that "official sources have called this election differently." 1622
The US Coast Guard was searching Friday for a passenger who reportedly went overboard from a cruise ship about 35 miles south of the Florida Keys.The 26-year-old man was on the Carnival Victory cruise ship below Islamorada when the incident occurred, officials said.Vance Gulliksen, a spokesman for Carnival Cruise Line, said the vessel was headed back to Miami, its home port, when the man disappeared."All appropriate authorities, including the United States Coast Guard, were notified, and the ship has joined in the search and rescue efforts," Gulliksen said in a statement.Carnival Victory was completing a four-day cruise.A Coast Guard plane, helicopter and cutter were involved in the search. 707