濮阳东方医院看妇科评价好很专业(濮阳东方医院妇科价格比较低) (今日更新中)

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) — The latest ABC News national polling average shows former Vice President Joe Biden leading President Donald Trump by 8 points.But a lot of people are wondering, can we trust the polls after what happened in 2016?The last time Donald Trump was on the ballot in 2016, the polls had him trailing former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton by an average of 3.2 percentage points, and we know what happened.However, pollsters weren’t off by as much as you might think.“At the national level, the polling was, remarkably, given all things, precise,” said Jay Leve, CEO of the polling firm SurveyUSA.Trump lost the popular vote by 2.1 points instead of 3.2, the most accurate these national polls had been in 80 years, according to an analysis by the American Association for Public Opinion Research.Where the polls did miss badly was at the state level, particularly in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, three states that were critical in the Electoral College.Leve said there were several reasons for the polling problems at the state level.“Polling is a very expensive undertaking and so it is not possible for the handful of media organizations with pockets deep enough to afford a public opinion poll to be able to poll in every critical battleground state,” he said.Another reason? “Some of it has to do with what’s called ‘weighting,’” he added.To understand weighting, you have to know the two R’s of a good poll: it needs to be representative and random.Random samples are critical to the accuracy of polling, and you can look to your kitchen for an example why. Picture adding salt to a soup. If you mix it right, you can check the taste with any one spoonful -- you don’t have to eat the entire pot. That’s because each spoonful is a truly random sample.If you don’t mix the salt in, you could easily wind up sampling a part of the soup without any salt.When you’re trying to sample the American public with a political poll, either over the phone or most of the time now online, it’s more challenging to get a perfectly random spoonful.“The challenge is to find the individuals in the right numbers and secure their cooperation. Those two things don’t automatically work in sync,” Leve said. “People don’t want to be disturbed. They want privacy and a pollster by definition is an interruption.”It turns out, certain people tend to resist taking polls, while others are more willing. Research shows people with college degrees are more likely to respond to surveys than high school grads.That means surveys run the risk of not being representative of the voter population at large, and Leve said that kind of imbalance played a big role in 2016.To make a sample representative, pollsters gather up as many responses as they can, then adjust them with a process called weighting -- basically boosting or shrinking responses from people with certain demographics to match census data and the expected turnout.“The weighting criteria that was in issue in 2016 was whether you had enough non-college educated white voters in your sample,” Leve said. “If you did, you got the Trump forecast correct.”State polls that didn’t weight by education level missed badly, because to an extent far greater than in previous elections, voters with a college education broke for Clinton while voters with a high school education backed Trump.There’s some evidence that pollsters have learned from their 2016 mistakes. Polling in the 2018 midterms was very accurate -- a full point better than the average over the last 20 years.So can we trust the polls this time around?Leve says yes, as long as you remember that polls are just a snapshot in time and Donald Trump is difficult to predict.“Don’t be surprised if something happens in the final four, five, six days of the election, right before November 3rd, that’s so unforeseeable that neither you nor I nor anyone watching us could have imagined. And if so, that’s going to throw all the polls off,” he said. 3979

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) — The July Fourth holiday weekend is expected to bring large crowds to San Diego's beaches.Los Angeles beaches will be closed this weekend, and that has some concerned that even more people will flock to San Diego's beaches.Debra Moore lives in Encinitas. She'd like the beaches closed indefinitely."I think they opened way too soon, and we all saw this coming. They told us it was going to come, and I'm sorry so many more people had to get sick," said Moore.She said young people in her neighborhood aren't taking the pandemic seriously."Nobody is wearing a mask, nobody is social distancing. People are walking around my neighborhood all the time, or on the beach, just like it's normal, and nothing is normal anymore," said Moore.Del Mar Councilman Dave Druker also has concerns."People are very worried about lifeguards being overwhelmed and the whole city being overwhelmed with visitors, cause there's nowhere else to go," said councilman Druker.Tuesday, San Diego county supervisor Nathan Fletcher said it's up to officials in coastal communities to decide whether beaches should close this weekend.Fletcher also said all of the coronavirus outbreaks have been linked to indoor settings. He said he doesn't think closing beaches is necessary right now. 1285

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) - Students from around San Diego are using a modern medium to learn and inspire.The Cesar Chavez Service Clubs, which has chapters at 22 local schools, has launched the "Chavistas Podcast."Once a month, they interview a local leader, learning that person's story. They hope it can inspire other kids to reach for the stars."We feel that, as a community of Chavistas, that we can get a good message of community out there," say Ariana Gallegos, the club supervisor.Gallegos has a background in radio broadcasting and uses that to help the kids craft their interviews."It's a beautiful experience that I get to bring the students to a setting that sometimes is hard to be at," says Galleos. "But it allows them to see that if I can do it, you can do it."Students in the club say it's been a fun experience. They hope other kids will listen and learn."When it turnes out good, it's really nice, just feeling like you accomplished something good," says Wilson Elementary 7th Grader Mecklin Montgomery. "I like getting other people's information out there, and I want people to hear their story and possibly be inspired by it."To listen to the podcast, click here. 1184

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) - The mother of a missing San Diego State graduate is offering a ,000 reward to find him.Wesley Billingsly, 24, was last seen in June. A San Diego Police flyer indicated he was prepared to meet friends and never arrived.Billingsly earned a degree in business administration and marketing from SDSU. He traveled to his native Sacramento and earned money for his return to San Diego, his mother Christel told 10News.Christel Billingsley said her son was looking for a job and wanted to save on rent. After June 1, he did not have a permanent address and started couch-surfing at friends’ homes in Pacific Beach.Wesley and his Ford Expedition disappeared June 12. “It’s completely out of character,” said his mother.Christel paid her son’s phone bill and described him as a social media junkie. About two months ago, the phone stopped showing activity.“Everything stopped on June 12. He just vanished off the face of this earth,” Christel said.Christel is employed as a school officer manager in Sacramento and recently returned to her job after summer break. She plans to take time off to search for her son.“Somebody knows something and I need somebody to tell me where my son is,” she said.Wesley Billingsly is 5’8”, 130 pounds with brown hair and brown eyes. He was last seen driving a black Ford Expedition with a license plate 6HIN781.Anyone with information please call SDPD Missing Persons Unit at 619-531-2277. 1448

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) — The deadline to register to vote in the upcoming election is this Monday, Oct. 19, but unlike most states, California offers a backup option for people who miss the deadline.It’s called conditional voter registration or same-day voter registration, a process that allows California voters to register in person through the last day to vote on Nov. 3. Voters who register conditionally must cast a provisional ballot, which takes longer to verify and appear in the final tally.In the November 2018 midterm election, 2,353 voters used the conditional registration process, according to the San Diego County Registrar of Voters Office.Starting Oct. 20, voters in San Diego County can register conditionally by visiting the Registrar’s Office in Kearny Mesa at 5600 Overland Avenue.“They would register, and then go over and receive their ballot and vote that same day,” said Registrar Michael Vu.Beginning Oct. 31, polling places will open, and voters can register conditionally and cast a ballot there. However, you will want to go to the polling place assigned to your address, which you can find at sdvote.com.Voters who go to the wrong polling place will be allowed to vote for certain offices, like president, but they could have selections for local offices like city council invalidated if the polling place is located in a different district.California started allowing conditional or same-day registration in 2017. It is one of 21 states to allow the practice.Individuals seeking to register conditionally must provide their driver’s license number or the last four digits of their Social Security number to prove they’re eligible, along with their address and other information.Voters do not need to show ID or proof of residency, except in rare circumstances.Once conditionally registered, the voter will be given a provisional ballot. A provisional ballot is just a ballot that’s placed in an extra envelope with a little more information from the voter so election workers do an added layer of verification before the ballot is counted. That takes time.“Generally they are counted last,” Vu said.There are other instances when voters might have to cast a provisional ballot: like if you’re registered but go to the wrong polling place, or if you want to vote in person and forget to bring your mail-in ballot to surrender. In some cases, poll workers can electronically view the status of your mail-in ballot without the need to surrender it, but in other cases the voter may have to vote provisionally.With conditional voters, election officials will first verify that the person is eligible to vote, then they’ll make sure that person hasn’t voted already before adding their ballot to the tally.Voters who successfully complete a conditional registration will automatically be considered registered for future elections. 2860

来源：资阳报