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When experts look at the economy and its rebound, they go through an alphabet soup of letters, with a “V” shape recovery being the best-case scenario. It’s a fast decline with a fast recovery. Letters like “W” or “L” mean a much slower and painful path forward.A resurgence of more COVID-19 cases is shifting the likely shape of our economic recovery, and having economists evaluate the likelihood of a recovery in the shape of the more dreaded letters.“The fact that the virus has increased in a number of states shows that it is still very much a threat not only to one’s health but the economy,” said Michelle Meyer, who heads U.S. Economics at Bank of America. “The initial stage of the recovery was quite robust. It felt quite ‘V’ like, the economy was digging its way out of what was a very deep hole.”According to Bank of America, about a third of the jobs lost during the pandemic have been recovered. However, the recovery has slowed down into more of a “U” shape, and now data is showing a stall with concern of a higher chance of a “W” or “L” shape recovery.“The ‘W’ trajectory would be the worst-case scenario. That would show real fragility on the economy if we dipped back into a recession,” added Meyer.Experts say it would lead even higher unemployment, and more permanent job loss and business closures. In addition, to come out of a “W” or “L” shape recovery, we would need even more stimulus money from the federal government, which may not even improve the economic downturn as much as it did the first time.“Stimulus in Washington provides a really nice band-aid and I think it helped tremendously in the first stage of this recovery but at the end of the day, we need the economy to fundamentally improve,” said Meyer.The good news is unless there is a significant or full shutdown again, a “W” shape recovery is still less likely to occur than a “U” shape.“Our analysis projects that a 'U' shape recovery with rather steep losses and growth this year and rather flat next year and then recovering subsequently is the most likely outcome,” said David Turkington, the Senior Vice President at State Street Associates.A recent State Street study based on 100 years of historical data shows that the U.S. still has 30.1% chance of a “U” recovery, and a combined 24.4% chance of a “W” or “L” shape recovery which include stagflation and depression outcomes.“The real economy I think is what determines the recovery and how that plays forward,” said Turkington.The real economy is jobs, businesses and consumer spending. Providing stability there could determine which way the economy goes. 2615

WILLIAMSVILLE, NY — Rep. Chris Collins, who was charged with insider trading Wednesday, has announced in a statement that he will be suspending his campaign for re-election to Congress in New York's 27th District. Collin's Statement: 266

With just eight days until election day and despite attempts at parliamentary roadblocks by Democrats, Senate Republicans easily confirmed Judge Amy Coney Barrett to the Supreme Court on Monday.On Sunday afternoon, the Senate voted 51-48 to advance Barrett's confirmation, which opened a final 30 hours of Senate debate. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell directed the Senate to work overnight to complete the process by Monday evening. According to CNN, President Donald Trump is expected to swear-in Barrett at a ceremony at the White House at 9 p.m.Sen. Susan Collins, R-Maine, was the only Republican Senator set to vote against Barrett's confirmation. The final tally was 52-48.Meanwhile, Democrats' repeated attempts to delay the process have proven futile. On Thursday, Democrats on the Senate Judiciary Committee chose to boycott a vote that sent the vote to the Senate floor. And since Senate Republicans changed parliamentary rules to prevent the filibuster of Supreme Court nominees in 2017, Democrats have little recourse to further block Barrett's confirmation.The push to fill the Supreme Court seat vacated by the death of Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg stands in stark contrast to 2016, when Republicans chose not to hold confirmation hearings for President Barack Obama's nominee to replace Justice Antonin Scalia for more than six months prior to a presidential election, saying that the American people should decide who fills the vacancy.Barrett's confirmation would give conservative judges a 6-3 voting edge on the court, which could significantly shape policies and precedents for a generation. 1626

West Virginia legislators scrambled Monday to see whether there is enough money to meet teacher pay demands and end a strike that has dragged into its eighth day.A legislative conference committee appointed to resolve differences between the state Senate and House is scheduled to meet at 4 p.m."We recognize the urgency of this situation," said Delegate Paul Espinosa, chair of the House Education Committee and co-chair of the conference committee on House Bill 4145, the pay raise legislation.Gov. Jim Justice and the union leaders last week agreed that teachers and service personnel would receive a 5% pay raise. The House approved the proposal, but the Senate passed a 4% raise. Union leaders say the teachers won't return to work until they get a 5% raise.Espinosa said he has been speaking with his counterpart in the Senate, Majority Leader Ryan Ferns, "on how we would like to proceed with the committee's work to resolve the differences" between the Senate and the House of Delegates.Democrats in the Legislature say new revenue projections show the money is there and that a 5% raise would amount to million more in spending than a 4% bump."This situation has evolved very quickly in recent days, and we want to make sure committee members have a full array of accurate information available to make a well-informed decision," Espinosa said.."To accomplish that, we have instructed our respective Finance Committee staffs to pull data and put together the necessary fiscal information, and have separately reached out to the Governor's Office staff to ask for more budgetary information from the executive branch."West Virginia public school teachers are continuing their strike because the Legislature didn't meet their demand for higher pay and better benefits over the weekend. All 55 counties announced school closures for Monday. About 20,000 teachers walked out February 22, keeping almost 277,000 students out of class.West Virginia public school teachers earn an average salary of about ,000, making them among the lowest paid educators in the United States. School service personnel are also walking out.The pay raise must be passed as a law, since West Virginia is not a collective bargaining state.The House bill with the 5% raise quickly passed Wednesday, but Senate lawmakers expressed concern about how the state will fund the raise and passed the 4% version on Saturday after hours of debate and discussion.The House voted not to adopt the 4% version of the bill. With no agreement between the chambers, the conference committee was created. Three members from the House and three from the Senate -- two Republicans and one Democrat -- were selected.The group has until Tuesday to come to a decision about the bill. The House and the Senate could extend that deadline. If a meeting of the minds eventually fails, an earlier law specifying a 2% raise for teachers' pay would kick in, and then 1% over two years.The issue of teachers' pay isn't restricted to West Virginia. In Oklahoma, public school teachers are considering a statewide strike over their salaries.West Virginia teachers are equally unhappy with their employee health insurance program. Tentative agreements on pay did not include a fix to the Public Employees Insurance Agency (PEIA), which employees say requires them to pay premiums that are too high.A task force on the health insurance issue meets March 13. 3419

With a growing number of Americans getting tattoos, there is also a larger number getting them removed. New technology is allowing the process to be more complete with less scarring and blistering.  In some ways, users believe it can undo bad choices.A recent Harris Poll shows tattoos are particularly prevalent among younger generations. About half of millennials and a third of Gen Xers say they have at least one, compared to just 13 percent of Baby Boomers. One in eight millennials have regrets about at least one tattoo. The men who own and run "ReversaTatt" David Cope and Wesley Henderson, say they are helping people erase those regrets, one laser session at a time.When a person gets a tattoo, it's a memory of the start of a chapter in life.  They can remember the whole experience of choosing the design and the placement.  In some ways, the laser can offer a page turn into a new chapter: one without that tattoo.Two women, Stephanie Goodman and Stephanie Gray, each came to ReversaTatt recently seeking tattoo removal assistance."They all came from different places and they all have different meanings, but I'm going to keep all these ones, they're not going anywhere," explained Gray.  Gray came to ReversaTatt for her first session to remove a design along her neck.  She says the story why it's coming off is private, but she would like this tattoo to disappear."It was a name, yeah, so it's going to be gone," said Gray.After a consultation, Cope points the PiQo laser at her neck and says, "here comes the heat." In 13 seconds, he backs off. The first treatment is done.  While the pain is a bit more intense than getting the tattoo, according to Gray, it's over quickly. "It was nothing," said Gray."The red from this little stripe here is completely gone," said board certified physician assistant David Cope, pulling up his sleeve and pointing at part of his tribal arm band.  Cope said he got his own tattoo when he was in a medical program as part of a pact to finish. Now, years later, he was encouraged by patients to remove the tattoo to understand the procedure better, so he agreed. "This is kind of an ink explosion kind of feeling in your skin, so it's not just something you've felt before," said Cope.Now, on his second session, parts of the tattoo have completely disappeared and others have started to fade. Getting a tattoo removed by their PiQo laser requires short sessions, a month or so apart, five to 12 times over. Laser tattoo removal clients are 70 percent female, according to recent studies. A Harris Poll of U.S. adults surveyed online in 2015 showed 47 percent of millennials and 36 percent of Gen Xers have at least one, and they're exponentially more likely than their elders to have multiple.  Tattoo removal clinics have grown by 400 percent in the last decade.Click here for FDA suggestions regarding health and safety regarding tattoo removal.ReversaTatt says the laser they use does not cause blistering or scarring like previous methods. The results are more complete too.  Cope claims his clients' tattoos will disappear 98 percent to 99 percent. ReversaTatt has seven locations in Florida including Delray Beach, Boca Raton, Jupiter and Port St. Lucie. 3415