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SAN DIEGO (KGTV) — The CDC is making plans to distribute millions of doses of a coronavirus vaccine by late next month, but government officials have gotten these predictions wrong in the past.Doctors and scientists say there are reasons to be skeptical of the timelines laid out by Operation Warp Speed based on the lessons of 2009 and 1976.During the height of the H1N1 Pandemic in 2009, San Diegans waited in long lines to get vaccinated only to find there were not many doses to go around.The CDC initially projected there would be 120 million doses of vaccine ready by October 2009. Then federal officials scaled back the projection to 45 million.By the end of October, only 23 million doses would become available due to delays in the manufacturing process.“The lesson of H1N1 is that you may make all the plans on paper, but the actual nuts and bolts of rolling it out is really challenging and not to be underestimated,” said Dr. Peter Chin-Hong, an infectious disease specialist at UC San Francisco.Manufacturers had trouble growing the H1N1 vaccine in chicken eggs, the most common method for producing flu vaccines. There were also issues with testing the vaccine’s potency and problems switching production lines from the seasonal flu vaccine to the H1N1 strain, according to an after-action report by the Department of Health and Human Services.A lot goes into making a vaccine, said Dr. Rahul Gupta of March of Dimes.“It's not just the vaccine but also the syringes, and the needles, and the stoppers, and the alcohol pads,” he said. “There are so many other things that go along when we talk about a vaccine.”By the time the vaccine was widely available, the pandemic had petered out.Experts say there are also some parallels to what happened in 1976.During the height of an election cycle, President Gerald Ford fast-tracked a vaccine after some soldiers on a military base in New Jersey got sick with a strain of H1N1, then called Swine Flu, that was genetically similar to the strain that killed millions in 1918.“Some scientists were telling Gerald Ford that this was going to be as bad as Spanish Flu,” said Dr. Chin-Hong.The U.S. launched a huge media campaign, urging Americans to get vaccinated.President Ford rolled up his sleeve and got the vaccine, along with one-quarter with the U.S. population, beginning in October of 1976.However, the viral strain they were worried about never spread beyond the military base, and there were rare side effects linked to the vaccine. Of the 45 million people inoculated, about 450 people developed Guillain–Barré syndrome and about 30 people died.One month after the vaccinations began, Ford lost the election and the episode became known as the “Swine Flu Affair.”Experts say it’s normal to have adverse reactions and production delays on the road to a vaccine.“We have to understand that’s a process. And we learn as we go along. And people have to trust the process as well,” Dr. Gupta said.But doctors say it’s a process that takes a lot of coordination, and there are aspects you just don’t want to rush. 3081

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) -- The man accused of opening fire into a Hillcrest business has been found incompetent to stand trial. Stefano Markell Parker, 29, was facing attempted murder charges in San Diego in connection with the shooting at Golden Dragon Asian Bistro in February of 2019. Witnesses in the area that night described a man they say stood outside the restaurant armed with a rifle and opened fire. No one was shot. RELATED: San Diego police arrest man suspected of shooting into Asian Bistro restaurant in HillcrestAfter the shooting, witnesses described seeing the suspect shooter walk away. Witnesses say the gunman then changed clothes, providing a description. Police arrested Parker in the area later in the night. A spokesperson at the Jefferson County Jail in Alabama previously confirmed to 10News that Parker was in custody in recent years. In 2016, he was arrested in Alabama for possession of marijuana and drug trafficking charges. In 2017, he faced charges of distributing methamphetamine and possession of marijuana. Court records also show that Parker faced capital murder charges when he was a teenager in connection with a shooting from a vehicle. RELATED: Team 10: Suspected Hillcrest shooter faced murder charges in AlabamaA spokesperson with the Jefferson County District Attorney’s Office said he pleaded guilty to felony murder and was sentenced to twenty years, but part of the sentence was suspended. He served four years. 1461

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) — The California Center for the Arts, Escondido will host drive-in live concerts and a movie series this month.The concerts and movie screenings will be held at the former Nordstrom parking lot at Westfield North County at 8 p.m. Spaces for more than 250 vehicles will be made available and spaced apart to keep listeners distanced.The scheduled shows start on Aug. 14 with a showing of the classic musical Grease and continue on Aug. 15 and 16 with a performance by Jersey Boys stars Christian Hoff and Travis Cloer. Hoff, a Tony Award-winning actor, is best known for his portrayal of the role Tommy Devito from the Four Season’s and Cloer is the longest-running actor to play the role Frankie Valli in Jersey Boys.Tickets to the general public will go on sale on Aug. 1 at 1 p.m. here or by calling 800-988-4253. Tickets start at per car.A portion of ticket proceeds will benefit the Escondido Community Foundation and The Central San Diego Black Chamber of Commerce Foundation.The drive-in series may extend into the fall, the center says. 1072

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) - The government is sweetening the deal for investors who put their money into San Diego's most under-served neighborhoods, but the offer could be having a negative effect on the people who live in them.A new study from Zillow says prices in so-called opportunity zones grew 20 percent in a year after they received the government designation. That designation, part of 2017 tax reform, offered investors capital gains tax breaks for investing in the areas, which the IRS deems "economically distressed."San Diego County has about 30 of these zones, most of them concentrated in the city of San Diego's inner core. Zillow says the Colina del Sol neighborhood near City Heights, parts of Golden Hill and University Heights are the areas that could see the most investment. RELATED: San Diego's top neighborhoods to get more rental space for the money"It's been expensive to live here, but it's expensive to live anywhere," said Tomi Barnett, who lives in Colina del Sol. "It's starting at ,200 or ,300 (a month) for a one-bedroom."The steep price increases have led to concerns that the opportunity zones could ultimately price people out of their own neighborhoods. Erik Tilkemeier, who does economic development for the City Heights Community Development Corporation, said his group is working with officials to make sure the investments also benefit the community.RELATED: Making It In San Diego: How housing got so expensive"Our sidewalks are deplorable in a number of neighborhoods, the walk-ability is not what it should be," he said. "The challenge is all of those same improvements tend to cause gentrification."Tilkemeier added that the government shut down earlier this year delayed getting answers to some key questions on the program. 1775

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) — The Food and Drug Administration has released new guidelines to vaccine makers with added safety measures that experts say will push back the timeline, making the release of a COVID-19 vaccine before the election highly unlikely.The guidelines lay out what it will take for companies to secure a fast-tracked authorization for a vaccine, known as an emergency use authorization or EUA.The new guidelines require vaccine makers to follow the volunteers in their clinical trials for a median of two months after their final dose.It’s an important step to see if anyone has a bad reaction, says Dr. Christian Ramers of Family Health Centers of San Diego.“Some of the safety issues that people like me are concerned about might take months actually to develop,” Dr. Ramers said. “My analysis of this is that it's the FDA standing up and saying, ‘We're going to adhere to our rigorous scientific process.’”The White House had resisted the new guidelines from the FDA for more than two weeks. After their release, President Trump described them as a “political hit job.”“New FDA Rules make it more difficult for them to speed up vaccines for approval before Election Day. Just another political hit job!” the president wrote on Twitter Tuesday night.It’s hard to gauge exactly how the two-month buffer affect the vaccine timeline because clinical trials do not start all at once; volunteers are enrolled on a rolling basis. But Dr. Sydney Wolfe of the consumer group Public Citizen said the drug makers have offered clues.“The companies one-by-one are saying, ‘We can’t get anything in until the end of November or the end of December or the beginning of January,’ and that’s a relief,” he said.In a clinical trial, half of the volunteers get the vaccine and half get a fake drug called a placebo.The updated guidelines require companies to have an estimated effectiveness of at least 50 percent, meaning there are 50 percent fewer cases of infection in the group receiving the vaccine compared to the placebo group.The guidelines also instruct companies to have a plan to continue collecting data in their clinical trial even after they get an EUA and the vaccine hits the market.“The worst thing that could happen here is something meets that minimum bar of 50% efficacy, meaning it works pretty well, but then the bottom just falls out from these clinical trials and we don't get the information we need,” he said.Dr. Ramers was initially skeptical of fast-tracking a vaccine with an EUA rather than waiting for full approval since it’s only been done once before, but he’s supportive of the process under the updated guidelines.“I think that's the best way to balance speed and safety,” he said.Still, experts like Dr. Wolfe think going with an EUA over a full approval could backfire. He points out the new guidelines allow up to half of the people in the clinical trial to be tracked for less than two months after their final dose.“All things aren’t equal [between an EUA and full approval] because you don’t have all the information and B, people know that,” he said.Dr. Wolfe is concerned the public will be reluctant to roll up their sleeves and embrace the vaccine if it just has an emergency authorization. Now that the FDA has made the EUA guidelines more rigorous, he thinks waiting for full approval might take just a few more months.The FDA’s new guidance notes that an Oct. 22 meeting of its Vaccines and Related Biological Products Advisory Committee will not be to discuss specific vaccine candidates.Trump previously said he would consider overruling the FDA on its vaccine guidelines in hopes of speeding up the process. There is both health and economic pressure for a vaccine to be developed as the coronavirus continues to claim an average of 800 US lives a day, according to Johns Hopkins University data.However, Dr. Wolfe said the possibility of the president overruling the FDA is unlikely to have an impact now because the vaccine developers themselves have indicated they will follow the FDA guidelines.Additional reporting by Justin Boggs 4090

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