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SAN DIEGO (KGTV) — As states continue to count votes, one thing is clear: the pre-election polls were off again.Pollsters underestimated support for President Donald Trump by a wider margin than they did in 2016, prompting a number of theories about what went wrong and why changes adopted after the 2016 election proved ineffective.Heading into Election Day 2020, candidate Joe Biden led Trump nationally by an average of 8.4%, according to FiveThirtyEight’s polling average. We won’t know the final margin until all the votes are counted, but it looks like Trump’s support was underestimated by about 3.5%.That’s wider than the national popular vote miss in 2016, when the polls underestimated Trump’s support by 1.1%.“Polling emerged from 2016 with a black eye. This is fair to say a second black eye in 2020,” said Jay Leve of polling firm SurveyUSA.Leve said the industry thought it had corrected its 2016 mistakes. Polling in the 2018 midterms was very accurate.In 2020, pollsters made sure to weigh for education level and include enough non-college-educated white voters to try to capture a representative sample of the electorate.But state polls show it didn’t work. In Ohio, there was a nearly 8-point miss. In Wisconsin, there was a nearly 10-point miss. In Florida, the polls missed by 5 points and incorrectly showed Biden in the lead.“While pollsters attempted to correct for the mistakes that they made in 2016, President Trump was busy hammering home a narrative that, number one, the media is the enemy of the people. And number two, polls are fake polls,” Leve said.Leve thinks that skepticism and distrust caused Trump supporters to ignore pollsters at a higher rate, causing them to be underrepresented in samples.San Diego State political scientist Dr. Stephen Goggin says there are other theories as well.“Between mail-in balloting, the pandemic, between all the early voting and all the confusion it creates, it’s possible some of that played a role in creating the error we saw this time,” he said.Goggin said the pandemic may have made the models used to predict voter turnout less accurate this cycle. Many surveys heading into the election showed an unusual trend: Biden was polling better among so-called “likely voters” than among registered voters overall. Typically Republicans hold an edge among likely voters, Nate Cohn of the New York Times noted.There’s also some early data suggesting once the pandemic hit, Democrats started responding to surveys more frequently, something that could have shifted the poll numbers.There may have also been issues surveying certain demographic groups. Pre-election polls showed Biden chipping away at Trump’s lead with seniors compared to 2016, but Biden actually did worse than Clinton with that demographic in certain key states. Trump’s support among Hispanic voters in Florida also surprised pollsters. If exit polling data shows that trend continued in other states, it might explain about one-quarter of this year’s polling error, according to the New York Times.“Many of these errors are fixable when they find out what went wrong and you can still get high-quality samples,” Goggin said.Pollsters are planning to do detailed autopsies on the election once they have final turnout data and results by precinct. Polling firms will eventually post detailed data from their results to the Roper Center for more finely tuned analysis.ABC 10News used SurveyUSA this election cycle to poll 11 state and local races. The final polls accurately predicted the winner in all 11 races, although the margins weren’t perfect.The ABC 10News/Union-Tribune scientific polls actually overestimated Trump’s support in California by about 4 points, relative to vote totals as of November 12. 3757

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) — County public health officials are urging locals who attended indoor services and events at a Kearny Mesa church to quarantine for two weeks after a COVID-19 outbreak linked to the location.The county says anyone who attended Awaken Church at 7620 Balboa Avenue between Nov. 15 and 22 should quarantine for 14 days after their last date of visiting the church and watch for coronavirus symptoms.Officials added that anyone who was at the church within that time frame should get tested for the virus.Generally, the county does not reveal the locations of community outbreaks and has long advocated against the practice. In this instance, public health officials say it's necessary to, "prevent the spread and occurrence of additional cases," and that, "in this case, public health has been unable to identify and notify all of those exposed."In a letter to the church, the county said while the community outbreak linked to the church doesn't mean that anyone contracted COVID-19 at the location, everyone who has attended events at the location should quarantine for 14 days.A community outbreak is three or more COVID-19 cases from different households within two weeks at one location."You should review your current plans to prevent COVID-19 at your location and determine if there are actions that you can take to reduce the likelihood that your staff, customers, or visitors could contract this infection," the letter said.The county added that anyone who has attended the church, as well as the public in general, should continue to wear face coverings, practice social distancing, and avoid large gatherings.With the exception of two days, San Diego County has seen new COVID-19 cases spike to more than 1,000 cases a day over the last week. Saturday's update set another daily record with 1,859 new COVID-19 cases reported — a 14% positivity rate out of 12,932 tests.According to the county's data on Saturday, there were 86 active community outbreaks. 1988

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) — County public health officials are urging locals who attended indoor services and events at a Kearny Mesa church to quarantine for two weeks after a COVID-19 outbreak linked to the location.The county says anyone who attended Awaken Church at 7620 Balboa Avenue between Nov. 15 and 22 should quarantine for 14 days after their last date of visiting the church and watch for coronavirus symptoms.Officials added that anyone who was at the church within that time frame should get tested for the virus.Generally, the county does not reveal the locations of community outbreaks and has long advocated against the practice. In this instance, public health officials say it's necessary to, "prevent the spread and occurrence of additional cases," and that, "in this case, public health has been unable to identify and notify all of those exposed."In a letter to the church, the county said while the community outbreak linked to the church doesn't mean that anyone contracted COVID-19 at the location, everyone who has attended events at the location should quarantine for 14 days.A community outbreak is three or more COVID-19 cases from different households within two weeks at one location."You should review your current plans to prevent COVID-19 at your location and determine if there are actions that you can take to reduce the likelihood that your staff, customers, or visitors could contract this infection," the letter said.The county added that anyone who has attended the church, as well as the public in general, should continue to wear face coverings, practice social distancing, and avoid large gatherings.With the exception of two days, San Diego County has seen new COVID-19 cases spike to more than 1,000 cases a day over the last week. Saturday's update set another daily record with 1,859 new COVID-19 cases reported — a 14% positivity rate out of 12,932 tests.According to the county's data on Saturday, there were 86 active community outbreaks. 1988

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) - County officials created a Dia de los Muertos altar to honor the lives of 891 San Diegans who died from the coronavirus, and put a face and heart into the fight.Supervisor Nathan Fletcher and Assemblywoman Lorena Gonzalez championed the altar as a way to send a message."We wanted to honor those families and honor those lives lived and acknowledge the tremendous impact it's had, but also pay particular tribute to the impact that covid has had on the Latino community," Fletcher said.Saying more than half of those who died in the county are Latinos. This is extremely disproportionate considering only 30% of the population is Hispanic, according to the 2019 Census."When we start looking at the actual human toll and our relatives who have moved on now as a result of this virus it becomes more real and reminds us why it's so important to stay so vigilant," Gonzalez said.Vigilance is what Treasure Felder said would have saved her mom Ronda."She was our angel on earth and is now our angel in heaven, that's how we like to refer to her," said Felder. Felder says her mom was a social worker with the county, caring for foster youth and a strong woman in her 60s."She was never really ill, in the hospital, or hurt. Even if she had a little pain she'd always push through. So to see her in a place where she could barely stand up and also having to be put in a chemically induced coma was something that none of us prepared for." she said.She said she walked into her mother's room on July 4th and found she couldn't stand and was breathing heavily. She called an ambulance, even though her mother didn't want to go to the hospital, and never saw her again.Felder said her mother always had her hand out to help others and is so incredibly proud of how her mother led her life. She hopes sharing her story of pain and emptiness, now that her mother is gone, will stir others to take steps like wearing a mask and social distancing to stop the spread of the coronavirus.The altar will stay up through Tuesday morning. 2048

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) — Coaster service through San Diego County will be unavailable for two weekends this month.To give crews time to complete infrastructure improvements along the rail corridor, North County Transit District announced Coaster service from Oct. 19-20 and 26-27 would be shut down.On Fridays before the closures, southbound Amtrak R2R trains A792 and A796 will make their trips to Santa Fe Depot, but Amtrak train A590 will stop at Oceanside Transit Center.During the service shut down, Amtrak Pacific Surfliner and Metrolink will not provide service to Oceanside Transit Center. Trips on connecting buses will need an Amtrak reservation. Amtrak bus services will also need an Amtrak reservation. Rail 2 Rail passes are not eligible.Bus service connecting Coaster stations will not be available, but some passengers may have BREEZE Route 101 or MTS connections available.While no passenger rail service will operate on the corridor during these times, other vehicles and equipment will be in use. Pedestrians and drivers should still look out for equipment in the area.Service will resume on the Mondays after the closures but may experience delays up to 15 minutes. 1186