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BEIJING, May 3 (Xinhua) -- Decoupling from the world, and the economic downturn much of it is experiencing, has proven impossible for China. But its resilience is receiving more recognition, with many leading financial institutions upgrading their 2009 growth forecasts since mid-April.     The adjustments for gross domestic product (GDP) growth, ranging from 0.5 to 2.3 percentage points, were based on signs of a turnaround in the first quarter. These indicators included stronger-than-expected real GDP growth, recovering property investment, a pick-up in power consumption and a surge in bank lending.     Merrill Lynch & Co. said it expected China's GDP to grow 7.2 percent in the second quarter and 8 percent this year, while Goldman Sachs raised its projection from 6 percent to 8.3 percent, the most optimistic forecast so far. Other forecasts include UBS, which raised its estimate by 0.5 point to 7 percent and CLSA Asia-Pacific, which lifted its outlook by 1.5 point to 7 percent.     China's policymakers can take heart from these forecasts. Every upward revision, big or small, given the global economic slowdown, might point to a better chance for the nation to achieve its 8-percent growth target. That level of growth is considered necessary to raise living standards while maintaining social stability.     But there's still the question of whether rapid growth is sustainable. Some analysts believe it isn't unless China can rebalance its economy and achieve higher efficiency, lower environmental costs and a more reasonable balance among investment, trade and consumption.     QUANTITY OR QUALITY?     In an interview with Xinhua, Stephen Roach, chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia, urged Chinese authorities to get more serious about stimulating private consumption because the global economy remains "pretty weak" and might only achieve a weak recovery.     "China has responded to the crisis the way it has always responded to global problems. That is, using proactive fiscal stimulus mainly in the infrastructure area to provide temporary support in the downturn until the global economy comes back. It worked in the 1997 Asian financial crisis and the 2000-2001 mild recession. But this is a different sort of problem," said Roach.     "Once the stimulus wears off and if there is no follow-through, the Chinese economy will weaken again. I don't think exports will recover in the weak global economy."     Domestic economists voice similar worries, saying that the speed of growth doesn't matter as much as the quality. Liu Shangxi, deputy dean of the Research Institute for Fiscal Science at the Ministry of Finance, said that the 6.1-percent year-on-year growth in the first quarter had been "fairly good" for China. But, he said, "sometimes, it's worth slowing down a bit to have the economy move more stably."     Wang Xiaoguang, an economist with the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), the chief planning agency. said that the government's annual growth target had become mostly symbolic.     For five years in a row, the target was 8 percent, and for five years in a row, the growth rate overshot the target. Wang said the government had faced a dilemma: a cut in the target might undermine public confidence while a rise might tempt local governments to over-invest to meet a high growth target.     The turnaround signs mostly reflected the impact of the 4-trillion-yuan (586 billion U.S. dollars) stimulus package. Meanwhile, retail sales still trailed investment in contributing to growth. Local economists warned that the economy remained unbalanced and vulnerable.     "Historical records show that adjustments in the Chinese economy would take two to three years, on average. Seven months have passed since the impact of the global financial crisis began to tell on the local economy.     "With a turnaround in sight, recovery might come earlier than expected but there are still risks of a further slowdown," Chen Dongqi, deputy chief of the Macro-Economic Research Institute under the NDRC, told a business development forum in Guangdong in late April.     BUYING CURE     It's widely accepted among economists that China should boost domestic private consumption by leading individuals to buy more and save less. The key question is: how?     "Two big programs" Roach advocates call for doubling the investment in social security immediately to 150 billion U.S. dollars and establishing a goal of raising consumption as a share of the economy from 36 percent to 50 percent within five years.     "What I think is missing here is the social safety net, social security pension and unemployment insurance. Because of the absence of the safety net, China has seen a high level of precautionary saving," he said.     Roach suggested that China develop a private pension system in particular so total employee compensation could rise in tandem with productivity. "Chinese companies need to partner with their workers and provide medical care [and] retirement investing for their workforce. Chinese workers' total pay package should have both wages and benefits," he said.     Liu agreed that the primary task in expanding consumption was to raise incomes. "Securing the legitimate interests of workers is particularly significant when the economy slumps. It would be like drinking poison to quench one's thirst if businesses sought to expand corporate earnings at the cost of workers' pay and benefits," he said.     Low labor costs and massive capacity have propped up China's prosperity over the past decades. But the proportion of wages to national income has been on a long decline since the 1990s.     Between 2002 and 2006 alone, economists estimate the figure dropped from 62.1 percent to 57.1 percent. Meanwhile, the contribution of consumption to GDP growth fell from 43.6 percent to 38.9 percent.     "A more meaningful index to judge the sustainability of China's economic growth would be the proportion of wages to national income," Liu said. "If this ratio did not rise, people would remain poor, and thus expanding consumption would be empty talk."     Chinese are far from wealthy. Only 4 percent of the workforce, and just 10 percent of the urban workforce, earn more than 2,000 yuan a month, the threshold for individual income tax.     As Chinese residents hold 2.43 trillion yuan in aggregate deposits, economists say one immediate way to boost consumption would be to stabilize spending on staple property -- including housing and automobiles -- and support tourism and cultural activities.     "People spend much of their money on housing and food. The government should encourage people to entertain themselves more," Wang said.     CHINA 'NO LOCOMOTIVE'     Although China might be the first major economy to recover from the downturn, economists disagree on when China will return to sustained high growth.     Morgan Stanley, for example, has forecast a firm recovery by mid-year, but said sustainable growth through 2010 would still hinge on what happens in other countries.     "China will be stronger. But will that strength be enough to allow others to follow in its footsteps? I don't think so," said Roach.     "Most of China's resilience comes from infrastructure building, roads, property consumption ... [this] won't have an impact on the United States and Europe. This resilience is only temporary while its stimulus is local rather than global."     Central bank governor Zhou Xiaochuan also warned in late April during World Bank-IMF meetings in Washington that the rebound in China's economy had to be consolidated. He said conditions in China would permit rapid economic development again, once macroeconomic policies such as the stimulus plan took effect.     Challenging internal and external conditions, he said, included continuously shrinking external demand, a relatively large decline in exports, overcapacity in some industries, falling government revenue and lingering employment pressure.     As China emerges from the shadow of the downturn, together with many of its Western partners, the world is closely watching the socialist market economy that it is still trying to develop.     It was interesting to see that there was much "the ideologically-constrained West" could learn from China, just as there was much China could learn from the West, said Roach.     "China has gone slow in many areas, especially in the opening up of its financial market. But China made the right choice," he said.     "Focusing on stability is a huge plus for China. But the nation must be vigilant in its financial policies, especially monetary and regulatory policies, and not allow asset bubbles and financial innovations it doesn't understand," said Roach.

BEIJING, May 3 (Xinhua) -- China developed a new diagnostic reagent to test for A/H1N1 flu virus in pigs and the new method could provide test results in five hours, the Ministry of Agriculture said Sunday.     The ministry has organized experts soon after the outbreak of A/H1N1 to develop new diagnostic reagents to test for A/H1N1 virus. The method could also provide references for the virus in humans, the ministry said.     The ministry has urged local branches to strengthen efforts on the storage and management of emergency materials for the influenza A/H1N1 prevention and control.

BEICHUAN, Sichuan, May 10 (Xinhua) -- The quake-devastated Beichuan county seat in southwest China's Sichuan Province reopened Sunday to residents to mourn the dead ahead of the first anniversary of the disaster.     Some 21,000 people, or two-thirds of the county seat's population, were dead or missing in the 8.0-magnitude earthquake on May 12 last year, making the county the worst hit in the quake.     The county will be open for four days till Wednesday.     Mourners brought flowers, incense and candles and set off firecrackers in the ruins of former bus stations, county government buildings and homes. The police distributed bottled water to the crowd for free. A mother mourns for her child who was only 67 days old when killed in last year's May 12 earthquake in Beichuan, the hardest-hit area in the disaster, in southwest China's Sichuan Province, on May 10, 2009. Parents who lost their children came back to Beichuan as the first anniversary of the disaster approaches"I come here today to tell my mom that dad, sister and I will live a better life. I miss her and I will often come to see her," said Zheng Chengrong, a student who returned from a vocational college in Mianyang City and dedicated flowers to her mother.     Zheng's younger sister studies at Beichuan Middle School, where more than 1,000 students were dead or missing in the quake. Construction of the new school will begin on May 12.     "I wish my sister can study hard to enter the senior high school. My mom would be very happy then if she knew that," Zheng said.     Cheng Piyi and Huang Guiqiong, a couple who lost their daughter, brought their 16-month son to Beichuan. A mother mourns for her child who was killed in last year's May 12 earthquake in Beichuan, a hardest-hit area in the disaster, in southwest China's Sichuan Province, on May 10, 2009. Parents who lost their children came back to Beichuan as the first anniversary of the disaster approaches."We wish she could see the flowers," Cheng said. "When our son grows up, we will tell him that he had a sister who liked him very much."     The town has been closed since May 20 last year. It reopened to former residents during Qingming, or tomb-sweeping day, in April.     A new county seat will be built 23 km from the former one. The new town is expected to have 58,000 residents in 2010 and 110,000 in 2020.

WASHINGTON, April 25 (Xinhua) -- Zhou Xiaochuan, governor of the People's Bank of China, said on Saturday that positive changes have taken place in the Chinese economy, whose overall performance is better than expected.     "Facing the impact of the financial crisis, the Chinese government has promptly introduced a policy package to expand domestic demand and maintain financial stability, striving to respond to the impact of the financial crisis," said Zhou at the International Monetary and Financial Committee (IMFC) meeting held here on Saturday. Chinese Central Bank Governor Zhou Xiaochuan attends a meeting of the International Monetary and Financial Committee (IMFC) in Washington April 25, 2009. "Positive changes have appeared in the operation of the national economy, and overall performance is better than expected," said the Chinese central bank governor.     The slowdown in GDP growth has been contained, with GDP growth in the first quarter of 2009 reaching 6.1 percent, while the growth rate in industrial production has also rebounded, with industrial added value growing 5.1 percent over the same period last year, said Zhou, adding that "there are signs of gradual stabilization."     Meanwhile, Zhou warned that the Chinese economy is still facing challenges. "It should be recognized that the rebound in China's economy remains to be consolidated," he said.     "The internal and external environments are still challenging, external demand continues to shrink, the decline in export volume is relatively large, some industries have excess capacity, government revenue is falling, and employment pressures continue," he noted.     The Chinese government will continue its implementation of an aggressive fiscal policy and a moderately accommodative monetary policy, and implement the package plan in response to the crisis, said Zhou.     He stressed that the long-term economic development trend in China has not changed.     "As macroeconomic policies gradually take effect, China's economy has the conditions for maintaining relatively rapid development," he said

CAIRO, June 21 (Xinhua) -- China's new special envoy on the Middle East issue Wu Sike said here on Sunday that China is willing to push forward the peace process with all the parties concerned under new circumstances in the region. "The Chinese government and its people are very concerned about the situation of the Middle East, which has witnessed positive developments recently," Wu said during his talks with Egyptian Foreign Minister Ahmed Abu Gheit.     "China, together with the parties concerned and the international community, is willing to push forward the Middle East peace process under the current new circumstances," he added.   Arab League Secretary General Amr Mahmoud Moussa (R) meets with visiting China's special envoy on the Middle East issue Wu Sike in the headquarters of the Arab League in Cairo, capital of Egypt, on June 21, 2009    "Negotiation is the only and the best way to solve the conflicts in the region and China will support all the efforts in this regard," he said.     For his part, Abu Gheit said that Egypt appreciates China's efforts in facilitating the peace process, hoping that the Chinese government, along with the special envoy, would play a bigger role on the issue.     Earlier in the day, Wu also met with the Cairo-based Arab League Secretary General Amr Moussa.     Wu, former Chinese ambassador to Egypt, was appointed as the special envoy in March this year to replace Sun Bigan.     He has been director of the Department of West Asian and North African Affairs of the Foreign Ministry, ambassador to Saudi Arabia and Egypt, and also the first Chinese plenipotentiary to the Arab League.     Egypt is the first stop of Wu's regional trip which will also take him to the Palestinian territories, Israel, Jordan, Syria, Lebanon and Russia.

来源：资阳报