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As the Summer of COVID draws to a close, many experts fear an even bleaker fall and suggest that American families should start planning for Thanksgiving by Zoom.Because of the many uncertainties, public health scientists say it’s easier to forecast the weather on Thanksgiving Day than to predict how the U.S. coronavirus crisis will play out this autumn. But school reopenings, holiday travel and more indoor activity because of colder weather could all separately increase transmission of the virus and combine in ways that could multiply the threat, they say.Here’s one way it could go: As more schools open for in-person instruction and more college students return to campuses, small clusters of cases could widen into outbreaks in late September. Public fatigue over mask rules and other restrictions could stymie efforts to slow these infections.A few weeks later, widening outbreaks could start to strain hospitals. If a bad flu season peaks in October, as happened in 2009, the pressure on the health care system could result in higher daily death tolls from the coronavirus. Dr. Robert Redfield, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, has said that scenario is his biggest fear.One certainty is that the virus will still be around, said Jarad Niemi, a disease-modeling expert at Iowa State University.“We will not have a vaccine yet and we will not have enough infected individuals for herd immunity to be helpful,” Niemi said.Fall may feel like a roller coaster of stop-and-start restrictions, as communities react to climbing hospital cases, said University of Texas disease modeler Lauren Ancel Meyers. Everyone should get a flu shot, she said, because if flu spreads widely, hospitals will begin to buckle and “that will compound the threat of COVID.”“The decisions we make today will fundamentally impact the safety and feasibility of what we can do next month and by Thanksgiving,” Meyers said.The virus is blamed for over 180,000 deaths and 6 million confirmed infections in the U.S. Worldwide, the death toll is put at almost 850,000, with over 25 million cases.The U.S. is recording on average about 900 deaths a day from COVID-19, and newly confirmed infections per day are running at about 42,000, down from their peak in mid-July, when cases were topping out at over 70,000.Around the country, a chicken processing plant in California will close this week for deep cleaning after nearly 400 workers got sick, including eight who died. And college campuses have been hit by outbreaks involving hundreds of students, blamed in some cases on too much partying. Schools including the University of North Carolina, Michigan State and Notre Dame have moved instruction online because of clusters on their campuses.Several vaccines are in advanced testing, and researchers hope to have results later this year. But even if a vaccine is declared safe and effective by year’s end, as some expect, there won’t be enough for everyone who wants it right away.Several companies are developing rapid, at-home tests, which conceivably could be used by families before a Thanksgiving gathering, but none has yet won approval.More than 90 million adults are over 65 or have health problems, putting them in higher danger of severe consequences if they get sick with the coronavirus. Many of them and their families are starting to decide whether to book holiday flights.Cassie Docking, 44, an urgent care nurse in Seattle, is telling her parents — both cancer survivors — that Thanksgiving will be by FaceTime only.“We all want to get to 2021,” she said, “and if that’s what it takes, that’s what we’ll do.”Caitlin Joyce’s family is forging ahead with a holiday feast. They plan to set up plywood tables on sawhorses in a large garage so they can sit 6 feet apart.“We’ll be in our coats and our sweaters,” said Joyce, 30, of Edmonds, Washington, who plans to travel to her grandparents’ home in Virginia. “It will be almost like camping.”One widely cited disease model projects 2,086 U.S. deaths per day by Thanksgiving, more than double compared with today.“In our family we will not have our extended family get-together. We will stick to the nuclear family,” said Dr. Christopher Murray of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, one of the few models making a prediction for November.Uncertainty is huge in Murray’s model: Daily deaths could be as low as 1,500 by Thanksgiving or as high as 3,100. In a more optimistic scenario, daily deaths could range from 510 to 1,200 if nearly everyone wears masks. A more pessimistic scenario? From 2,700 to 6,500 daily deaths if social distancing rules continue to be lifted and are not reimposed.With all the uncertainty, most disease modelers aren’t looking that far ahead — at least officially.Jeffrey Shaman, a public health expert at Columbia University, thinks the virus will spread more easily as the weather forces people indoors: “But what level of a bump? That’s hard to say.”At Carnegie Mellon University in Pittsburgh, computer scientist Roni Rosenfeld’s team uses machine learning to project COVID-19 deaths. The team’s computer algorithm learns from patterns it finds in state and county data to improve its forecasts.A five-time winner of a CDC competition for predicting flu season activity, Rosenfeld thinks his model’s COVID-19 projections aren’t very useful beyond four weeks because of the wild card of human behavior, including that of government officials.“What happens very much depends on us,” he said. “People, myself included, don’t always behave rationally.” Presented with the same facts, “the same person might behave differently depending on how sick and tired they are of the situation.”Like other disease modelers, Rosenfeld said the virus will still be with us at Thanksgiving, readily spreading at family gatherings. While his plans may yet change, he said he is going to travel with his wife to visit their adult children. They will wear masks and keep a safe distance during the visit.___The Associated Press Health and Science Department receives support from the Howard Hughes Medical Institute’s Department of Science Education. The AP is solely responsible for all content. 6201

At least 14 people were injured Saturday when a deck collapsed at a tap house in Savannah, Georgia, the city's fire department said on Twitter."A total of 14 were ultimately transported to local hospitals for treatment, 2 serious injuries," a tweet read.The Rogue Water Tap House deck fell 12 feet, collapsing onto a seating area below around 4:30 p.m., according to another fire department tweet.CNN affiliate WTOC reported that the bar later reopened.The Georgia port city is home to a famous St. Patrick's Day parade, the second-largest in the United States and third-largest in the world.Savannah's event started more than 190 years ago. About 280 units, including bands, soldiers and floats, now march through the downtown streets of Georgia's oldest city each year on March 17.With this year's parade on a Saturday, the Savannah St. Patrick's Day Parade Committee was expecting more than 500,000 people to show up, said Brian Counihan, general chairman of city's parade committee. 1014

Attorney General Jeff Sessions revealed Thursday that Utah's top federal prosecutor, John Huber, has been examining a cluster of Republican-driven accusations against the FBI and has decided that no second special counsel is needed -- at least for now.Huber has been looking into allegations that the FBI abused its powers in surveilling a former Trump campaign adviser, and more should have been done to investigate Hillary Clinton's ties to a Russian nuclear energy agency, but his identity had remained a secret.But Sessions' decision to stop short of formally appointing a special counsel like Robert Mueller, detailed in a lengthy written response to threeRepublican chairmen on Capitol Hill, will likely anger those in the GOP who have recently ramped up calls to investigate claims of political bias at the nation's top law enforcement agencies.It also comes one day after the Justice Department's internal watchdog office confirmed?it would review how the FBI obtained a warrant to monitor Trump foreign policy aide Carter Page, as well as the bureau's relationship with Christopher Steele, the author of the Trump dossier.Huber, who currently serves as the US attorney in Utah, may now find himself thrust into the middle of a fierce partisan struggle -- with Republicans arguing anything short of a special counsel is insufficient because the Justice Department cannot investigate its own people, and Democrats maintaining that any allegations of bias are an unfounded ploy to distract from Mueller's investigation into possible coordination between Trump campaign associates and Russian officials.Originally appointed by President Barack Obama in 2015, Huber, along with many other US attorneys, resigned after President Donald Trump took office early last year, but was reappointed by Trump shortly thereafter. 1845

Attorney General William Barr took aim at his own Justice Department on Wednesday, criticizing prosecutors for behaving as “headhunters” in their pursuit of prominent targets and politically charged cases.The comments at a speech at Hillsdale College in Michigan amount to a striking and unusual rebuke of the thousands of prosecutors who do the daily work of assembling criminal cases across the country.Barr described the prosecutors as part of the “permanent bureaucracy” and said they were in need of supervision from “detached,” politically appointed leaders who are accountable to the president and Congress.“The men and women who have ultimate authority in the Justice Department are thus the ones on whom our elected officials have conferred that responsibility — by presidential appointment and Senate confirmation,” Barr said, according to his prepared remarks. “That blessing by the two political branches of government gives these officials democratic legitimacy that career officials simply do not possess.”As Attorney General, Barr has been aggressive in pursuing certain categories of prosecution himself, including seeking federal charges against those arrested in protests following the death of George Floyd. In fact, later on Wednesday, Barr said wants prosecutors to be aggressive in charging demonstrators who cause violence.So far, more than 300 people have been charged with federal crimes in the protests that erupted following the death of George Floyd.An Associated Press analysis shows that many are accused of serious crimes like hurling Molotov cocktails, burning police cars and seriously injuring law enforcement. Others are not accused of serious crimes, prompting criticism that the effort is a politically motivated effort to stymie demonstrations. 1790

As we're all focused on the current rollout of the COVID-19 vaccine, a technology known as thin-film freezing is getting a lot of attention. It's groundbreaking and could change the way we administer drugs or use medicine in general.You've probably heard about the need to keep the COVID-19 vaccine cold. It has to be so cold, in fact, that the shipment and transport are challenging. Well, what if that vaccine could be turned into powder?“What we’ve most recently been working on is the elimination of cold chain by storing as a powder, a dry powder where the drug is much more stable than if it was stored as a liquid or as a frozen liquid,” said co-inventor Dr. Robert Williams.Williams said it would eliminate the need for extreme cold storage and transport. The technology isn't new. He got a research grant and came up with it about 15 years ago.Williams, who is also a pharmacy professor at the University of Texas in Austin, said they were working on the technology and its multiple uses when the pandemic hit. And all of a sudden, they got a lot of attention.“We have published over 70 papers on the technology and using it for different products- it’s quite a mature process," Williams said. "We developed it because with other vaccines, the majority of the vaccine cost is in wastage because of this cold chain issue, so we published several key papers where we showed our thin-film freezing technology would protect vaccines - and you wouldn’t need cold chain storage.”Glenn Mattes, President, and CEO of TFF Pharmaceuticals added that the powders can be converted to topical preparations and they are currently working with the US Army to take some of the preparations and would then administer them directly through the eye.TFF is launching thin-film freezing into development through the FDA process. “I use the term ubiquitous because it is and disruptive because it is,” Mattes said. He added that they've explored their technology in the cannabinoid realm. But, as for the COVID vaccine, they're aiming for a second-generation usage.“To truly eradicate the pandemic, you have to have a global response," Mattes said. "The companies we’ve been speaking to certainly recognize the broad utilization of the technology but the application to the developing world, rural area, remote areas, where you can take a powder and inhale it or take the powder and reconstitute it has tremendous potential."Experts say it is only just the beginning as they launch their technology into a new world. 2511

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