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The polling industry has a lot on the line heading into Tuesday's midterm election.Critics blamed pollsters when voters were caught off guard by Donald Trump's election in 2016. Old cries of "don't believe the polls" became fevered shouts. And the president has encouraged distrust by calling certain polls "fake" and claiming they are used to "suppress" the vote.Although there is no evidence to suggest that is true, there is persistent and widespread suspicion about polling, according to, you guessed it, a McClatchy-Marist poll. And it exists on both sides, albeit in different forms."I think Democrats may have felt let down by the polls but don't think it was an intentional error. I think many Republicans believe the polling errors of 2016 were intentional," GOP pollster and co-founder of Echelon Insights Kristen Soltis Anderson told CNN.So can the industry regain trust?Since 2016 there's been a whole lot of self-reflection in the polling world. Pollsters have tweaked their techniques; pundits have become more cautious when talking about polls; and news outlets have conducted some fascinating experiments.On Tuesday, all the efforts are being put to the test."Some pollsters would disagree with this, but the way that the public generally views whether or not polling is accurate is whether or not it gets the results of the election right," CNN analyst Harry Enten said on "Reliable Sources.""I'm not necessarily sure that's fair," Enten said, "but I do think that there is more pressure on pollsters this year to get it right given the president's rhetoric and given what happened in 2016."Many, though not all, 2016 polls underestimated support for Trump. This effect was particularly pronounced at the state level, where there were embarrassing "misses," showing Hillary Clinton with safe leads in states Trump actually carried.Most national polls accurately showed Clinton winning the popular vote. But reporters and commentators made lots of mistakes in their interpretations of the polls. Readers and viewers did, too. Many people discounted the margin and other factors and made faulty assumptions that Trump would lose to Clinton.There were other problems, too. Predictive features on websites gained lots of traffic before the election but caused lots of consternation afterward. HuffPost's model infamously showed Clinton with a 98 percent chance of winning. "We blew it," the site admitted afterward.But just as importantly, HuffPost's Natalie Jackson tried to explain why.Other news outlets have also tried to be more transparent and remind voters of what polls cannot convey.In special elections since 2016, Democrats have repeatedly outperformed polls of their races.The top example was the Virginia governors' race. "Ralph Northam was favored by three points. He ended up winning by nine," Enten said.But past outcomes are not an indicator of future results."I think many pollsters and forecasters have tried to be much more intentional about explaining uncertainty and being humble about what data can and can't tell us," Anderson said. "Because I think there was a big sense that in 2016, there was more certainty conveyed than may have been justified by the available data."So political pros and reporters are communicating poll results differently this time. Time magazine's Molly Ball, who has a no-predictions rule for herself, said that even people who do make predictions are adding more caveats: There's "less of the, 'Well, the needle shows this' and more of, 'Here's what it doesn't show, here's what we should always remember can happen about probabilities.'"Early voting has been explosive in the midterms, indicating above-average enthusiasm among both Democrats and Republicans. Pollsters have to make assumptions about turnout when contacting "likely voters," and this is a difficult election to forecast.The 2018 electorate is "a universe that doesn't exist yet," Democratic pollster Margie Omero said. "I mean, people don't know whether they're going to vote, some people."They may tell a pollster that they're sure to vote, but never make it to the ballot box. Or they might change who they're voting for.Conversely, certain subsets of voters may have a big impact on the final results without really showing up in the pre-election polling. If pollsters assume relatively low youth turnout, but lots of young people vote for the first time, that could cause big surprises in certain races.The vast majority of people who are called by pollsters decline to participate, so the researchers have to make a huge number of phone calls, bend over backwards to reach a representative sample of people, and weight their results accordingly.Some polls are higher quality than others. Most news outlets tend to favor live interviewers, as opposed to computerized systems, and a mix of landline and cell phone calls. But some outlets are wading into web-based polling. CNN's polling standards preclude reporting on web polls.This fall The New York Times pulled back the curtain by conducting "live polling" and publishing the results in real time, call by call. Working with Siena College, the surveyors made 2,822,889 calls and completed 96 polls of House and Senate races."We wanted to demystify polling for people," said Nate Cohn of The Times' Upshot blog."From our point of view, it's almost a miracle how accurate polls usually are, given all the challenges," Cohn said in an interview with CNN.He emphasized that polls are "very fuzzy things." And the real-time polling showed this to the public. The researchers sought to interview about 500 people for each race that was examined.In Iowa's fourth congressional district, for example, 14,636 calls resulted in 423 interviews.The results showed the incumbent, far-right congressman Steve King, with 47% support, and his Democratic challenger J.D. Scholten with 42%.The Times characterized this as a "slight edge" for King, with lots of room for error. "The margin of sampling error on the overall lead is 10 points, roughly twice as large as the margin for a single candidate's vote share," the Times explained on its website.Cohn's final pre-election story noted that "even modest late shifts among undecided voters or a slightly unexpected turnout could significantly affect results."That's the kind of language that lots of polling experts are incorporating into their stories and live shots, especially in the wake of the 2016 election."With polling, you never actually get to the truth," Cohn said. "You inch towards it, and you think you end up within plus or minus 5 points of it at the end."As Enten put it, "polls are tools," not meant to be perfect. But that message needs to be reinforced through the news media. 6753

The number of high school seniors applying for U.S. federal college aid plunged in the weeks following the sudden closure of school buildings this spring — a time when students were cut off from school counselors, and families hit with financial setbacks were reconsidering plans for higher education.In the first weeks of the pandemic, the number of new applications fell by nearly half compared to last year’s levels, fueled by a precipitous decline among students at low-income schools, according to an Associated Press analysis of federal data. The numbers have risen as states and schools have launched campaigns urging students to apply for aid, but they remain down overall from last year.It’s raising alarms among education officials who say thousands of students may be opting to delay or forgo college, with potentially dire consequences for their job prospects and future earnings.“The consequences are that kids are going directly into the workforce. They’re closing the door on post-high school learning,” said David Nieslanik, principal of Southridge High School in Beaverton, Oregon, where he saw only more affluent students file for aid once instruction moved online.The FAFSA, short for Free Application for Federal Student Aid, is required for students to be eligible for federal Pell grants and student loans. It’s also often a requirement for state aid. Students who complete the form are far more likely to enroll in college, studies have found, and those who receive aid are more likely to stay in college.In the four weeks starting March 13, the number of completed applications was down 45% compared to the same period the year before, according to the AP analysis. It was sharpest at Title I schools, a federal designation for public schools that have larger shares of low-income students, which saw a 52% decrease, compared to a 39% slide at other public schools.Overall, applications were down by 70,000 as of June 19, representing a 3.7% drop for the entire application cycle.Even before the pandemic, some states had been expecting to see decreases as demographic shifts result in fewer high school seniors, and plenty of individual schools saw filings hold steady or increase. However, as the coronavirus started to spread, every state saw numbers slide compared to last year’s levels, even states that had more high school seniors this year.Schools say the pandemic contributed to the slide in several ways. Separated from their schools, students lost touch with counselors who typically guide them through the complex financial aid process. Families without reliable internet access struggled to complete the online form. And amid economic turmoil, some students took jobs and put college plans on hold.The pandemic’s timing worsened its impact on low-income students, experts say: While more affluent students typically submit the FAFSA earlier in the application cycle, low-income students are more likely to wait until March or April, the time when schools were shutting down.Gregory Cole, principal of the Mojave High School in North Las Vegas, Nevada, said it came at “the very worst time.”Many parents lost jobs as the region’s gaming industry shut down, and some students took jobs in groceries or fast food chains. Compounding the problem, many students come from families that had never filed the form, which requires a range of tax and Social Security records.“We’re the lifeline for a lot of our kids,” Cole said. “Without us there to help them through the process, I think it’s inevitable that some of them are going to fall through the cracks.”Once schools closed, counselors could no longer pull students into their offices to talk, or invite families to school to navigate the FAFSA. Instead, schools were left sending emails that often went unanswered, or they relied on unwieldy video chats to help families with paperwork.There’s hope that the decrease is partly tied to students who plan to attend community colleges and are waiting to file until closer to those schools’ deadlines, which are often later, said Justin Draeger, president and CEO of the National Association of Student Financial Aid Administrators. Still, he worries that the drop-off may be more than a “temporary blip.”“During recessions, traditionally more people go back to school to retool. But this just feels very different because of the pandemic, the illness, the job loss, and then the quarantines that might reappear this year,” he said. “All of this says to me, there are a lot of things to be worried about.”Education officials are encouraging students to apply over the summer, even if only to see how much financial aid they could receive. North Carolina recently launched a “FAFSA Frenzy” campaign, while Kentucky is hosting “FAFSA Fridays” urging students to apply.Although deadlines for some state scholarships have passed, students can still apply for federal aid for the 2020-21 school year through June 2021.In Louisiana, one of several states where students are required to file the FAFSA in order to graduate from high school, state officials waived that rule because of the pandemic. But state education officials are still calling and texting students in districts with lower completion rates.As of June 19, applications among the state’s low-income students were down by nearly 9%.“We are not going to stop,” said Sujuan Boutté, executive director of the Louisiana Office of Student Financial Assistance. “We’ve got to be that rock that says, ‘I do understand that there’s a lot of uncertainty, but this is a ticket to your future and you don’t want to put that on hold.’”Officials in Kentucky say they’re working hard but aren’t optimistic they’ll catch up with last year’s numbers. Even if they do, they worry that many students who filed will ultimately not enroll in college.“We may reach the same percentage, but I’m not optimistic that all of those students will be going to college,” said Aaron Thompson, president of the Kentucky Council on Postsecondary Education. “If I’m wrong about this, I will be shouting hallelujah.”___ Binkley reported from Boston. Fenn reported from New York. 6143

The popular video-sharing app TikTok, its future in limbo since President Donald Trump tried to shut it down earlier this fall, is asking a federal court to intervene. TikTok’s Chinese owner, ByteDance, has until Thursday to sell off its U.S. operations under an executive order that Trump signed in August. Trump in September gave his tentative blessing to a ByteDance proposal that would place TikTok under the oversight of American companies Oracle and Walmart. But TikTok said this week it’s received “no clarity” from the U.S. government about whether its proposals have been accepted.ByteDance is now asking the U.S. Court of Appeals to review the actions of the Trump administration's Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS), who is overseeing the sale.“For a year, TikTok has actively engaged with CFIUS in good faith to address its national security concerns, even as we disagree with its assessment,” TikTok says in a statement to The Verge. “In the nearly two months since the President gave his preliminary approval to our proposal to satisfy those concerns, we have offered detailed solutions to finalize that agreement – but have received no substantive feedback on our extensive data privacy and security framework.”“Facing continual new requests and no clarity on whether our proposed solutions would be accepted, we requested the 30-day extension that is expressly permitted in the August 14 order. Today, with the November 12 CFIUS deadline imminent and without an extension in hand, we have no choice but to file a petition in court to defend our rights and those of our more than 1,500 employees in the US. We remain committed to working with the Administration — as we have all along — to resolve the issues it has raised, but our legal challenge today is a protection to ensure these discussions can take place.” 1863

The new iPhones have officially debuted. And yes, facial recognition software is no longer just science fiction — it’s real and it’s on the X.Apple unveiled the iPhone 8, the iPhone 8 Plus and the iPhone X in a Sept. 12 keynote address at the new Steve Jobs Theater.What should you do now that the waiting game is over? Here are three options. 366

The Internal Revenue Service says its processing systems are back up and running after they went down on Tuesday, which was the filing deadline for 2018.The IRS said in a statement it has accepted more than 14 million tax submissions since processing systems reopened.The Tuesday morning system outage was caused by a hardware issue. Teams worked through the night to get the systems going again, Acting Commissioner David Kautter said. 444

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