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The polling industry has a lot on the line heading into Tuesday's midterm election.Critics blamed pollsters when voters were caught off guard by Donald Trump's election in 2016. Old cries of "don't believe the polls" became fevered shouts. And the president has encouraged distrust by calling certain polls "fake" and claiming they are used to "suppress" the vote.Although there is no evidence to suggest that is true, there is persistent and widespread suspicion about polling, according to, you guessed it, a McClatchy-Marist poll. And it exists on both sides, albeit in different forms."I think Democrats may have felt let down by the polls but don't think it was an intentional error. I think many Republicans believe the polling errors of 2016 were intentional," GOP pollster and co-founder of Echelon Insights Kristen Soltis Anderson told CNN.So can the industry regain trust?Since 2016 there's been a whole lot of self-reflection in the polling world. Pollsters have tweaked their techniques; pundits have become more cautious when talking about polls; and news outlets have conducted some fascinating experiments.On Tuesday, all the efforts are being put to the test."Some pollsters would disagree with this, but the way that the public generally views whether or not polling is accurate is whether or not it gets the results of the election right," CNN analyst Harry Enten said on "Reliable Sources.""I'm not necessarily sure that's fair," Enten said, "but I do think that there is more pressure on pollsters this year to get it right given the president's rhetoric and given what happened in 2016."Many, though not all, 2016 polls underestimated support for Trump. This effect was particularly pronounced at the state level, where there were embarrassing "misses," showing Hillary Clinton with safe leads in states Trump actually carried.Most national polls accurately showed Clinton winning the popular vote. But reporters and commentators made lots of mistakes in their interpretations of the polls. Readers and viewers did, too. Many people discounted the margin and other factors and made faulty assumptions that Trump would lose to Clinton.There were other problems, too. Predictive features on websites gained lots of traffic before the election but caused lots of consternation afterward. HuffPost's model infamously showed Clinton with a 98 percent chance of winning. "We blew it," the site admitted afterward.But just as importantly, HuffPost's Natalie Jackson tried to explain why.Other news outlets have also tried to be more transparent and remind voters of what polls cannot convey.In special elections since 2016, Democrats have repeatedly outperformed polls of their races.The top example was the Virginia governors' race. "Ralph Northam was favored by three points. He ended up winning by nine," Enten said.But past outcomes are not an indicator of future results."I think many pollsters and forecasters have tried to be much more intentional about explaining uncertainty and being humble about what data can and can't tell us," Anderson said. "Because I think there was a big sense that in 2016, there was more certainty conveyed than may have been justified by the available data."So political pros and reporters are communicating poll results differently this time. Time magazine's Molly Ball, who has a no-predictions rule for herself, said that even people who do make predictions are adding more caveats: There's "less of the, 'Well, the needle shows this' and more of, 'Here's what it doesn't show, here's what we should always remember can happen about probabilities.'"Early voting has been explosive in the midterms, indicating above-average enthusiasm among both Democrats and Republicans. Pollsters have to make assumptions about turnout when contacting "likely voters," and this is a difficult election to forecast.The 2018 electorate is "a universe that doesn't exist yet," Democratic pollster Margie Omero said. "I mean, people don't know whether they're going to vote, some people."They may tell a pollster that they're sure to vote, but never make it to the ballot box. Or they might change who they're voting for.Conversely, certain subsets of voters may have a big impact on the final results without really showing up in the pre-election polling. If pollsters assume relatively low youth turnout, but lots of young people vote for the first time, that could cause big surprises in certain races.The vast majority of people who are called by pollsters decline to participate, so the researchers have to make a huge number of phone calls, bend over backwards to reach a representative sample of people, and weight their results accordingly.Some polls are higher quality than others. Most news outlets tend to favor live interviewers, as opposed to computerized systems, and a mix of landline and cell phone calls. But some outlets are wading into web-based polling. CNN's polling standards preclude reporting on web polls.This fall The New York Times pulled back the curtain by conducting "live polling" and publishing the results in real time, call by call. Working with Siena College, the surveyors made 2,822,889 calls and completed 96 polls of House and Senate races."We wanted to demystify polling for people," said Nate Cohn of The Times' Upshot blog."From our point of view, it's almost a miracle how accurate polls usually are, given all the challenges," Cohn said in an interview with CNN.He emphasized that polls are "very fuzzy things." And the real-time polling showed this to the public. The researchers sought to interview about 500 people for each race that was examined.In Iowa's fourth congressional district, for example, 14,636 calls resulted in 423 interviews.The results showed the incumbent, far-right congressman Steve King, with 47% support, and his Democratic challenger J.D. Scholten with 42%.The Times characterized this as a "slight edge" for King, with lots of room for error. "The margin of sampling error on the overall lead is 10 points, roughly twice as large as the margin for a single candidate's vote share," the Times explained on its website.Cohn's final pre-election story noted that "even modest late shifts among undecided voters or a slightly unexpected turnout could significantly affect results."That's the kind of language that lots of polling experts are incorporating into their stories and live shots, especially in the wake of the 2016 election."With polling, you never actually get to the truth," Cohn said. "You inch towards it, and you think you end up within plus or minus 5 points of it at the end."As Enten put it, "polls are tools," not meant to be perfect. But that message needs to be reinforced through the news media. 6753

The plans were hatched, the eggs were boiled. It's time for the 140th White House Easter Egg Roll, taking place Monday on the South Lawn.Orchestrated by the East Wing, the festivities are Melania Trump's second crack at the Egg Roll as first lady and her first as a full-time White House resident. Last year, Trump, who was living in New York through the completion of the school year, oversaw the event, which marked a scaling-down and return to basics for the annual eggstravaganza. But this year's Egg Roll will showcase a first lady who has more fully embraced the role of White House hostess, just weeks before the White House holds its first formal state visit with France.This year's Egg Roll will feature activity stations, including the first lady's new addition of lawn bowling, as well as the egg rolling, egg and cookie decorating stations, a state egg display, cards for troops and costumed characters. The White House is expecting nearly 30,000 attendees at the event, which will feature entertainment from the US Marine, Army, Air Force and Navy Bands. Readers at the reading nook will include the first lady, director of national intelligence Dan Coats, Secretaries Elaine Chao and Betsy DeVos, and director of legislative affairs Marc Short. 1271

The mother of mail bomb suspect Cesar Sayoc writes that she is estranged from her son but hurt by his alleged attacks, and she calls on the country -- specifically, President Donald Trump -- to tone down the nasty rhetoric.She further warned that the political vitriol -- particularly talk of "war" against the media and political parties — could resonate with the mentally ill, like her son, and inspire them to "violently act out in our country," Madeline Sayoc wrote in an open letter to television network ABC, which published the correspondence Sunday night.Madeline Sayoc also said that her 56-year-old son's relatives had tried, to no avail, to get him help, and that American families need better laws to allow families to "compel and require" treatment, when necessary.Here is the full text of the letter: 822

The pilots of?Lion Air Flight 610 were engaged in a futile tug-of-war with the plane's automatic systems in the minutes before it plunged into the ocean, killing all 189 people on board.But investigators say they are at a loss to explain why the pilots didn't follow the same procedure performed by another flight crew the previous day when they encountered a similar issue.A preliminary report into the crash released Wednesday by Indonesia's National Transportation Safety Committee (NTSC) reveals more details about the final moments of Flight 610, but acknowledges many questions remain.Data retrieved from the flight recorder shows the pilots repeatedly fought to override an automatic safety system installed in the Boeing 737 MAX 8 plane, which pulled the plane's nose down more than two dozen times. 820

The last time Tiger Woods won a major tournament, George W. Bush was the President, the iPad had not been invented yet and smartphones were only for wealthy. When Woods won the 2008 US Open, he not only needed to defeat Rocco Mediate in a sudden death playoff, he needed to rehab his knee due to a stress fracture, which caused him to miss the rest of the season. In the decade that followed, Woods' game slowly declined. Even though he was the PGA Tour's Player of the Year in 2009 and 2013, golf's four majors still eluded Woods. After having a successful 2013, Woods' health has declined. His declining health was evident last May when he was arrested near his Florida home for DUI. Woods was unable to balance his prescriptions, which caused him to fall asleep behind the wheel. Woods said last year that his goal was to be able to walk comfortably again. After several failed attempts at rehabbing his back, he is finally able to play pain free. Being able to play pain free has allowed Woods to be considered the favorite, according to Vegas, of winning the Masters. Woods has been in contention in both of his last two tournaments. He was just a putt away from forcing a playoff at last month's Valspar Championship. But it has been 13 years since Woods left Augusta with a Green Jacket, causing many to doubt if Woods would ever win the Masters again, let alone a Major. Among those who doubted Woods was the golfer himself. That was until last December, his first tournament back after missing a year to rehab his back. "After a few tournaments in, I felt more comfortable," Woods said. "I started getting used to what I could do, and then I started putting the pieces together that started preparing to play events, started competing and keeping score and posting numbers, and all of a sudden I started getting my feels back, and here we are."One person who is happy to see Woods back at Augusta is Phil Mickelson, once a bitter foe of Woods. Mickelson and Woods played together in a practice round on Tuesday. "I think that nobody respects and appreciates what he's done for the game more because nobody's benefited from what he's done for the game of golf more than I have," Mickelson said. "I've always had that appreciation and respect for him. To see him back out playing is incredible. We all feel that."I texted him a while ago when he was playing at Valspar that it felt like it was a different time continuum because I found myself pulling so hard for him. It was unusual."Odds makers list Woods as a 10-to-1 favorite to win this weekend. Given that Woods was barely able to walk a year ago due to pain in his back, winning the Masters would complete an incredible comeback to the sport Woods once dominated. But Woods said there have been bigger comebacks in the sports than the one he is trying to attempt. "I think that one of the greatest comebacks in all of sport is the gentleman who won here, Mr. Hogan," Woods said. "I mean, he got hit by a bus and came back and won major championships. The pain he had to endure, the things he had to do just to play, the wrapping of the leg, all the hot tubs and just the?? how hard it was for him to walk, walk period, and he ended up walking 36 holes and winning a U.S. Open."One thing standing in Woods' way is not his health, but the amount of talent that has developed in golf in recent years. Arguably, Woods is a big reason why there are so many golfers competing at a high level. "A lot of these kids have?? some of their first memories are of when I won my last major championship," Woods said. "That's what's crazy. Like, for instance, we're talking about Thomas Pieters today, he was born only a couple months before Fred won here. So it just puts in perspective for us, and for me especially, hearing some of these guys." 3894

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