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Predicting the outcome of elections can sometimes be easy. Other years, it is not. Professor Allan Lichtman has predicted every election since 1984, using a model he developed alongside Soviet Union scientists.One of Lichtman's proudest achievements was accurately predicting the 2016 election. President Donald Trump signed a Washington Post article about Lichtman in recent years with his autograph and the phrase "good call."THE METHODLichtman doesn't look at polls."Polls are not predictors, they are misused as predictors," Lichtman said.Instead, Lichtman looks at the political party currently controlling the White House. Then he uses 13 keys to gauge whether the party controlling the White House will lose or not.They are: midterm gains, no contest in the primary, incumbency, no third party, strong short-term economy, strong long-term economy, major policy change, no social unrest, no scandal, no overseas failure, major overseas achievement, charismatic incumbent, uncharismatic opponent."If six or more, any six more, turn against the party holding the White House, they are a predicted loser," Luchtman said.2020 PREDICTIONLichtman says before 2020, Trump appeared to be heading to a reelection. However Trump has now lost seven keys.In Lichtman's opinion, Trump has lost midterm gains, short term economy, long-term economy, no social unrest, no scandal, major overseas achievement, and charismatic incumbent."Could I be wrong? Of course human beings are wrong. But my keys have quite a track record," Lichtman said. 1541

POWAY, Calif., (KGTV) — Six days after the City of Poway issued a Boil Water Order, some restaurants are reopening, after getting special permits from the Health Department. On her first day back to work, a server at Mainstream Bar & Grill got the surprise of a lifetime when she received a ,000 tip from a regular customer. It's been a while since hungry customers walked into the Mainstream Bar & Grill. Six days after receiving Poway's food facility closure notice, Mainstream is one of a few restaurants that are reopened. Mandated by the Health Department, they now have a modified eight-item menu with ingredients not prepared on-site, a boiled water hand-washing station, and disposable cups and utensils. RELATED: Poway could face fines as water boil advisory continues"We submitted a payroll today," restaurant manager Brian Harvey said. "Employees, we want them to get back to work as quickly as possible. Especially this time of year."It's a time when a lack of cash could be the difference between holiday cheer and holiday drear. "You do really want to budget," server Sarah Klein said. "You really want to figure out what you want to do for the holiday or how you are going to spend your money, so that was scary."Klein, a six-year veteran server, was out of a job for five days. But Thursday morning, she was back on her feet. She greeted and served her regulars without a hitch. She even chatted with one of them about how the water outage was affecting her family. RELATED: Poway school district sends parents action plan after water boil advisory issuedNext thing she knew, she was given what he called a "donation.""He came back with an envelope and 00 cash was inside for me!" Klein said. At first, she did not want to accept it. But she said the donor insisted that she take it. "Poway is like a family. And they come together in times of need, and it's definitely one of those times," Harvey said. RELATED: Poway small business owners worry as boil water advisory continuesKlein says she has no idea how she will spend the money but hopes to pay it forward somehow. "Gosh, I don't know. You know, just spend it on my son's birthday, it's this month. And the holidays. So now there is so much more we can do. So I'm just really proud to be in Poway," Klein said.Klein said the donor is also a Poway resident, going through the same water crisis, which is why this gift is even more precious. The City of Poway said they are working to restore the water by Friday. 2505

President Donald Trump announced Wednesday a "surge" of federal forces to cities around the country as part of Operation Legend: an initiative to reduce violent crime in several cities across the country.President Trump announced the Department of Defense will immediately send federal law enforcement agents to Chicago and Albuquerque. He said offices and agents from several federal agencies will head to Chicago to help local efforts. He said officers were headed to other cities, but only mentioned those two cities by name on Wednesday.He also announced M available in grants for municipalities to hire officers as part of Operation Legend. "We will not defund the police, we will hire more great police," President Trump said. On July 8, Attorney General William Barr launched the initiative by sending federal agents to Kansas City, where violent crime is up 40% since last year. At least 100 murders have taken place in the city so far this year.Among those murdered in Kansas City was 4-year-old LeGend Taliferro, who was killed by a bullet as he slept in his bed. Operation Legend is named for him. LeGend's family attended Wednesday's press conference and shared their endorsement of Operation Legend."We want justice for our son, and for others," LeGend's mother, Charron Powell, said at Wednesday's press conference. "Operation Legend is not to harm, harrass ... it's to solve crimes." Barr said Operation Legend is the result of more than a year of work to create anti-crime task forces in large cities around the country. He said these officers are "classic crime fighters" and are not part of efforts to protect federal property. However, not all cities have been receptive to the Trump administration's plan. Chicago Mayor Lori Lightfoot has signaled she would not welcome the agents, and New York Mayor Bill de Blasio has threatened to file a lawsuit to keep the agents out.On Wednesday, mayors from 13 major U.S. cities signed a letter asking Barr and Acting Homeland Security Sec. Chad Wolf to remove the agents from their cities.The Trump administration has already deployed federal agents to the streets of Portland in the hopes of quelling anti-police brutality protests in the city. The agents' presence in the city has ratcheted up the intensity of protests in recent days, as agents have deployed tear gas and have been seen hitting and punching protesters.According to Customs and Border Patrol, its agents were sent to Portland as part of President Donald Trump's executive order aimed at protecting monuments and statues — not as a part of Operation Legend. 2597

PORT CHARLOTTE, Fla. — Susie Kelly teased her husband Doug as they played a game of rummy at Consulate Health Care, a rehabilitation center in Port Charlotte, Florida. Something they said wouldn’t be able to do if it wasn’t for Home Depot employees giving Susie CPR when she had a massive heart attack.“This is my early Christmas present. I got my wife back,” Doug Kelly said.Susie Kelly had a massive heart attack while riding in the car with her husband last month. He quickly pulled over to a nearby Home Depot.“I immediately thought of the time I had before the brain damage would kick in,” he said. “Those gals at Home Depot played a large part in saving my wife’s life.” 689

President Donald Trump reacted to the news that Michael Cohen pleaded guilty to making false statements to Congress about the Russia investigation, calling his former lawyer "very weak.""He's a weak person," Trump told reporters on the White House South Lawn before departing for Buenos Aires, Argentina."He was convicted with a fairly long-term sentence with things unrelated to the Trump Organization," Trump said, citing Cohen's legal issues with mortgages and the IRS.Trump speculated that "what he's trying to do is get a reduced sentence."Cohen admitted in federal court Thursday that Trump spoke with him more extensively about the proposed Trump Tower project in Moscow than Cohen previously told Congress.Cohen, Trump's former lawyer, pleaded guilty Thursday to making false statements to Congress about the Russia investigation in a charge brought by special counsel Robert Mueller.Cohen had previously said talks about the Moscow project ended in January 2016 just prior to the Iowa caucuses.Trump later reiterated his disparagement of Cohen: "What he's trying to do -- because he's a weak person and not a very smart person.""What he's trying to do -- and it's very simple, he's got himself a big prison sentence and he's trying to get a much lesser prison sentence by making up a story," Trump said.Trump was emphatic that Cohen was "lying," but it is unclear what he believes Cohen is lying about."Michael Cohen is lying and he's trying to get a reduced sentence for things that have nothing to do with me," he said.The President defended the deal for a possible Trump real estate venture in Moscow. The project, Trump said, "lasted a short period of time," adding that he decided not to do it because he wanted to focus on running for President.However, he maintained that "there would've been nothing wrong if I did do it."Asked why he worked with Cohen for so long, Trump said, "Because a long time ago he did me a favor. A long time ago he did me a favor."Trump denied that Cohen is a threat to his presidency when asked by CNN's Kaitlan Collins."No," Trump said. "Not at all. I'm not worried at all about him." 2137