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SEATTLE, Wash. – Models show a “second wave” of coronavirus deaths beginning in the United States in September, the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation said Thursday.The IHME has extended its COVID-19 forecasts through Oct. 1 and the institute says they show 169,890 deaths in the US by October 1, with a possible range between 133,201 and 290,222.IHME says deaths nationwide are predicted to remain fairly level through August and begin to rise again at the end of the month, with a more pronounced increase during September. However, the institute says some states will see the increase earlier due to increased mobility and relaxation of social distancing mandates.“We’re now able to look ahead and see where states need to begin planning for a second wave of COVID-19,” said IHME Director Dr. Christopher Murray. “We hope to see our model proven wrong by the swift actions governments and individuals take to reduce transmission.”Based on IHME’s models, these states are estimated to have the highest numbers of deaths by Oct. 1:· New York: 32,310 (range between 31,754 and 33,241)· New Jersey: 13,177 (12,881–13,654)· California: 8,821(7,151–12,254)· Michigan: 8,771 (7,098–14,743)IHME says the states with the earliest uptick in deaths, according to current modeling, are Florida, Arizona, Georgia, and Colorado.“If the US is unable to check the growth in September, we could be facing worsening trends in October, November, and the following months if the pandemic, as we expect, follows pneumonia seasonality,” Dr. Murray said.According to IHME, increasing travel in some states and the overlap with the flu season are likely to impact hospital demand for services in fall and winter.The IHME is an independent population health research center at the University of Washington School of Medicine. The institute’s models have been cited by many hospitals and government bodies, including the White House. The institute will continue to forecast four months into the future, updating the timeframe for the forecast at the beginning of each month.On Wednesday, the U.S. reached a grim milestone in the pandemic. COVID-19 cases in country surpassed 2 million, with more than 113,000 deaths from the illness, according to a tally by Johns Hopkins University.Although many states are continuing to relax COVID-19 restrictions, it’s still important to take simple measures to prevent the spread of the virus, like washing your hands, keeping your distance from others, and wearing a mask when out in public.“Based on IHME’s analysis, mask use results in up to 50% reduction in transmission of COVID-19,” the institute said Thursday.Click here to learn more from the Center for Disease Control and Prevention about preventing the spread of COVID-19. 2765

SAN FRANCISCO (AP) — Two girls who were lost in a dense Northern California forest for nearly two days say they survived frigid nights by huddling under a tree branch and a huckleberry bush and by thinking "happy thoughts."Leia Carrico, 8, and her 5-year-old sister Caroline, said in an interview Monday they went on a hike last Friday past a marker that their parents told them not to pass because they wanted an adventure but lost their way home."I just wanted a little more adventure, I said to go a little farther," Caroline said.Leia said her sister cried the entire first night and she told her to think happy thoughts as they huddled under a tree branch close to the ground."I thought of going to the park with mommy and daddy. I thought of going to the ocean. I thought of everything I remembered, but it didn't work," Caroline said.Leia kept watch both nights and thought about the good memories from a family vacation to Monterey, California, she said.She said she also remembered what she learned from watching movies of people surviving in the wilderness, going camping every summer and the training with their local 4-H club. She also thought of her father's advice to stay put if she ever got lost."I knew dad would find us eventually," she said.Two volunteer firefighters who joined hundreds looking for the sisters found them Sunday in a wooded area about 1? miles (2.3 kilometers) from their home in the small community of Benbow, about 200 miles (320 kilometers) northwest of Sacramento.Delbert Chumley, a Piercy volunteer firefighter, said he and fellow volunteer firefighter, Abram Hill, found the girls after calling out their names during a long hike through rugged terrain."I thought we heard someone say 'dad' and so then we called out again and they said yes we are right here," Chumley said.The girls' mother, Misty Carrico, said she is trying not to punish them."They might have wandered off but they stuck together and they pulled themselves through," she said. "They saved each other."For now, the girls are not allowed to go far away from their house until they have a GPS trackers, which their mother has already ordered. 2160

SAN MARCOS, Calif. (KGTV) — The City of San Marcos is taking action after 10News highlighted concerns by residents in a senior community who said their homes were at greater risk of a wildfire because of untrimmed brush near a creekbed.The city has cleared brush every year along Discovery Road near Lakeview Mobile Estates, but with an upcoming road-widening project scheduled for the area, the city initially told residents it would delay brush trimming along the San Marcos Creek until crews begin grading work, according to HOA Vice President Jim Woodard.That work is scheduled to begin in December."To save a few dollars and put us in this kind of risk, we're completely vulnerable," he said. "It's just a ticking timebomb."The brush, which is now taller than six feet in some spots, is just a few feet from the mobile home community's entrance."This is the only way in and out of the park, so if there's a fire on this side of the park, we're trapped," Woodard said.Resident Lee Katola said many of her neighbors are disabled and would have difficulty evacuating during a fire."I'm fearful. I'm fearful," she said.Woodard added, "It's perfect fuel for a fire. One spark coming over from that grass hits that fence, and we're toast."San Marcos Communications Manager Robin Rockey said the city was aware of the concerns."The City of San Marcos Fire Department spoke with residents at Lakeview Mobile Estates and is working to address their concerns and clear brush along Discovery Street," said Rockey. "The fire department is working on setting a time for the next clearing."Late Thursday, Rockey said the city would clear the brush by Wednesday of next week.The 214-acre San Marcos Creek Project will include two new bridges, a park, and will widen Discovery Road to four lanes. The project is scheduled to be completed in 2022 1842

Saudi Arabia regards the failed ballistic missile attack on Riyadh's international airport Saturday as an act of war by Iran and will take "appropriate" measures when the time is right, the country's Foreign Minister Adel bin Ahmed al-Jubeir told CNN Monday.Yemen's Houthi rebels have claimed responsibility for firing the projectile on Saturday, which was intercepted by Saudi defense forces before it hit the ground. Saudi Arabia and its Gulf allies accuse Iran of providing material support to the rebels."It was an Iranian missile, launched by Hezbollah, from territory occupied by the Houthis in Yemen," al-Jubeir told CNN, referring to Shia militias in Lebanon and Yemen closely allied to Tehran. 710

SELMA, Ala. (AP) — The late U.S. Rep. John Lewis crossed Selma’s Edmund Pettus Bridge for the final time Sunday as remembrances continue for the civil rights icon.A processional with Lewis’ casket was carried across the Selma bridge where he and other civil rights marchers were beaten 55 years ago on “Bloody Sunday,” a key event in the fight for voting rights for African Americans.Lewis will lie in repose at the Alabama Capitol on Sunday afternoon.He will lie in state at the U.S. Capitol next week before his private funeral Thursday at Atlanta’s historic Ebenezer Baptist Church, which the Rev. Martin Luther King Jr. once led. 641