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The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention ensemble forecast projects will be 207,000 to 218,000 COVID-19 deaths in the United States by Oct. 10.As of Thursday, 197,364 Americans have already perished from the coronavirus, according to Johns Hopkins University.With the new forecast, that means approximately 9,600 to 20,600 more people could die in the next three weeks.Two previous ensemble forecasts have already been published: one Sept. 3 and another on Sept. 10.The Sept. 3 forecast projected up to 211,000 deaths by Sept. 26. The Sept. 11 one projected up to 217,000 deaths by Oct. 3. 603

The country is heading into a COVID-19 winter without fully deploying widespread testing of sewage for traces of coronavirus, a Newsy investigation has found.Wastewater surveillance is one of the few proven tools able to track community spread of the disease, with the potential to help monitor immunity rates from new vaccines."It is frustrating," said David Larsen, an associate professor of public health at Syracuse University's Falk College. "We're going to see a huge amount of sadness over the next few months. And it's not too late to scale up wastewater surveillance at this time to help us with that."Early on, scientists realized infected people shed the virus in stool.The federal government began a big effort for analyzing the concentration of the virus in community wastewater."It's something I think from a national level we need to pursue," Assistant Secretary for Health ADM Dr. Brett Giroir said during a July webinar.Months later, the government has left it to state and local authorities to launch their own programs.For some, that's been a challenge.Newsy learned New York State, for example, suspended its sewage surveillance pilot after a month in part because of an equipment shortage.As a result, testing stopped in four places including Albany and Erie County, home of Buffalo.The University of Buffalo helped lead the project."UB is in the process of acquiring enough materials to continue the monitoring effort moving forward," university spokesman Cory Nealon said in an emailed statement.As with PPE, there is a global shortage of supplies needed to test sewage for COVID.Other places are struggling with how to pay for sewage analysis, with coronavirus aid from Washington running dry."The biggest factor, the limiting factor, is finances," Larsen said.The result is a patchwork of places examining wastewater across the country, mainly big cities and college campuses."It's not really a unified strategy, unfortunately," said Colleen Naughton, an assistant professor of civil and environmental engineering at the University of California Merced.She and her team plot testing sites on a map."When you zoom out of course the bubbles are big, so it looks like all U.S. is covered," Naughton said. "But when you zoom in you see it's a bit more spread out."Three states, Iowa, Rhode Island and South Dakota, don't have any surveillance sites at all, she said.Biobot Analytics looks for COVID in wastewater for about 200 cities and counties but has the capacity to do much more, said company president and cofounder Newsha Ghaeli."We're at the beginning, let's say that," Ghaeli said. "There hasn't really been a strong coming together yet around a specific approach or even standards."The CDC is still putting together a national wastewater surveillance system, building out a database not available to the public yet."It is, I think, valuable for the public to see that data and take action as a deciding factor for what activities and what risks am I going to take?" Naughton said. 3019

The founder and CEO of a fitness business in Phoenix says he intends to file a lawsuit against Governor Ducey in response to his executive order closing select businesses.The executive order said that as of 8 p.m. Monday night, gyms, bars, waterparks and tubing areas will all have to close to try to help slow the spread of the coronavirus.Tom Hatten, Mountainside Fitness CEO, said during a press conference Monday that the governor’s move is "arbitrary" and lacks clarity.“If this is truly as bad as we are being told, I don’t think health clubs closing tomorrow is going to solve the problem. I don’t think tubing is going to solve the problem,” Hatten said. “I don’t think closing a movie theater that hasn’t been open is going to solve the problem.”Hatten also called for unity from the governor, saying that if the governor is serious about coronavirus, the executive order shouldn't be limited to bars, gyms, and movie theaters.A representative for Mountainside Fitness says several other large gyms are taking part in the lawsuit as well, though that has not been confirmed with the other gyms.Dozens of members showed up to work out at Mountainside Fitness as soon as it opened Tuesday morning.Those like John Kiesewetter say they agree with the CEO's reasoning to remain open if other businesses aren't also forced to close. He says regular physical activity puts them in a better position to beat the virus."It seems to be unfair that things like casinos are still open but gyms, they are not. So, anyone who's healthier, who keep our distance, are the people who go to the gym and clean our equipment, so I think it was the right decision," Kiesewetter said.Governor Ducey said Monday that local authorities will have the ability to enforce the new rules, with a focus on educating the public.This story originally appeared on abc15.com. 1859

The founder and CEO of a fitness business in Phoenix says he intends to file a lawsuit against Governor Ducey in response to his executive order closing select businesses.The executive order said that as of 8 p.m. Monday night, gyms, bars, waterparks and tubing areas will all have to close to try to help slow the spread of the coronavirus.Tom Hatten, Mountainside Fitness CEO, said during a press conference Monday that the governor’s move is "arbitrary" and lacks clarity.“If this is truly as bad as we are being told, I don’t think health clubs closing tomorrow is going to solve the problem. I don’t think tubing is going to solve the problem,” Hatten said. “I don’t think closing a movie theater that hasn’t been open is going to solve the problem.”Hatten also called for unity from the governor, saying that if the governor is serious about coronavirus, the executive order shouldn't be limited to bars, gyms, and movie theaters.A representative for Mountainside Fitness says several other large gyms are taking part in the lawsuit as well, though that has not been confirmed with the other gyms.Dozens of members showed up to work out at Mountainside Fitness as soon as it opened Tuesday morning.Those like John Kiesewetter say they agree with the CEO's reasoning to remain open if other businesses aren't also forced to close. He says regular physical activity puts them in a better position to beat the virus."It seems to be unfair that things like casinos are still open but gyms, they are not. So, anyone who's healthier, who keep our distance, are the people who go to the gym and clean our equipment, so I think it was the right decision," Kiesewetter said.Governor Ducey said Monday that local authorities will have the ability to enforce the new rules, with a focus on educating the public.This story originally appeared on abc15.com. 1859

The CDC is now recommending “universal mask use” both indoors and outdoors whenever someone is not at their own home. This is the first time the agency has included indoor spaces in their recommendations for universal mask wearing.It comes as coronavirus cases in the U.S. continue to surge past 14 million positive cases and deaths climb above 277,000, with many states only beginning to see a potential second spike from Thanksgiving celebrations.In the CDC’s weekly report, they said with more time spent indoors with the colder weather, the ongoing holiday season and silent spread of the disease with about 50 percent of transmission happening from asymptomatic people, “the United States has entered a phase of high-level transmission where a multipronged approach to implementing all evidence-based public health strategies at both the individual and community levels is essential.”These include universal mask use, physical distancing, avoiding nonessential indoor spaces, increased testing, prompt quarantine, enhanced ventilation, and widespread vaccination coverage. The agency stresses “no single strategy can control the pandemic,” and all of these recommendations will be needed to break transmission chains.The CDC warns that indoor spaces and crowded outdoor spaces, especially where distancing is not maintained or consistent use of face masks is not possible, i.e. like when eating or drinking, “have been identified as particularly high-risk scenarios.”“Compelling evidence now supports the benefits of cloth face masks for both source control (to protect others) and, to a lesser extent, protection of the wearer,” the CDC guidelines now read. “Face mask use is most important in indoor spaces and outdoors when physical distance of ≥6 feet cannot be maintained. Within households, face masks should be used when a member of the household is infected or has had recent potential COVID-19 exposure.”Any indoor spaces should also have good ventilation, the CDC says. "For indoor settings, increased room air ventilation can decrease the concentration of small droplets and particles carrying infectious virus suspended in the air and, thereby, presumably decrease the risk for transmission."The World Health Organization recently updated their guidelines that everyone 12 and older should wear a mask outside, inside and even inside people’s own homes if they are poorly ventilated. They recommended that children ages 6-to-11 should wear a mask based on a “risk-based approach.”Earlier this week, the CDC said they recommend against traveling this holiday season to slow the spread of the coronavirus. They made a similar plea before Thanksgiving, however the TSA reported record-high airport screenings since the pandemic started. 2758