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SAN DIEGO (KGTV) - Californians associate “The Big One” with a devastating earthquake, but U.S. Geological Survey experts say a potentially larger threat could hit the state in the form of an “ARkStorm.”SPECIAL REPORT: Complete coverage of California's winter stormsExperts from every scientific field related to a potentially disastrous weather event gathered in 2010 to create the ARkStorm Scenario report for the USGS, imagining aspects of flooding of biblical proportions reaching the Western United States.“These storms do pose a real risk to California, in some ways far greater than that of earthquakes,” experts said in the study.The ARkStorm Scenario report reads like a Hollywood post-apocalyptic film script. Weeks of rain and snow are followed by catastrophic floods, landslides, and property and infrastructure damage which would cripple California’s economy.While the name “ARk” brings to mind a lifeboat scenario, ARkStorm project manager Dale Cox and chief scientist Lucile Jones coined the abbreviation to represent “atmospheric river.” A common term for meteorologists, these rivers in the sky work like highways for water vapor which comes to a screeching halt when it reaches land.A typical atmospheric river is the Pineapple Express, which pushes moisture from the tropics to the West Coast. It was a Pineapple Express that reached San Diego on Valentine’s Day, bringing warmer rain and lower snow levels, according to National Weather Service meteorologist Alexander Tardy.RELATED: Mega storm could cause billions in damage to California, report showsModels in the ARkStorm report show multiple areas of submergence in central San Diego. Mission Beach, which routinely sees flooding during heavy rain, is underwater in the ARkStorm scenario. Fiesta Island, ordinarily dry, disappears under Mission Bay.West-facing beaches, including those near Highway 1 in North San Diego County, are covered in water. Imperial Beach fares no better in its known run-off spots.“You have this outflow then you have the storm pushing in; it dams up,” says Cox of the coastal flooding impact.RELATED: How to check if your neighborhood is at risk of floodingTiming is critical in the creation of an ARkStorm. The same amount of precipitation predicted in the ARkStorm Scenario fell in 2017, says Cox. What made the difference in the impact, he says, is that the rain fell in 80 days instead of the 23 days imagined in the report.The West Coast will get notice, but not much, Tardy says. The most reliable models could give Californians a three-week warning for heavy rain.“We’re going to see it coming, but not where we can build a new levee,” Tardy said.RELATED: How San Diego's flooding compares to FEMA's historical hazard mapThe timing of the next ARkStorm is uncertain.“It could be next year, or it could be 120 years from now,” said Tardy.San Diego has seen significant rainfall in the 2018-2019 season, but few storms in recent years can compare with the potential disaster envisioned in ARkStorm.RELATED: Photos: Flooding catches San Diego by surprise“How do we help people understand it can get bigger than what they remember,” Jones said. “We prepare for the ones that we remember.”To create the report, experts accessed information from the records of Spanish ships off the coast of San Francisco in the 1600s. Other data were collected from tree rings, and newspaper reports from Sacramento in 1861 and 1862, the years an epic storm submerged California’s Central Valley past the level of telephone poles.As severe as it may seem, the ARkStorm Scenario is not the worst case scenario, said Jones.“If it has happened, it can happen again. And it probably will happen again.” 3695

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) - Businesses are bracing for Governor Gavin Newsom's announcement Monday after San Diego has been on the state's watch-list since July 3, due to a surge in coronavirus cases.Newsom could announce indoor activities, like arcades, restaurant dining, movie theaters and museums will be shut down to contain the spread.This news comes as San Diego restaurants faced a volley of changes over the past four months."I think that the only thing that is constant is the change," Chief Brewing Officer Mike Hess said from his Imperial Beach brewery.He said the lucky thing about most of his locations is they have outdoor space, so they can shift more easily. "I called everybody Friday when we got word when it might change on Monday and everybody was like ‘Okay what do we need to do?’" He said sighing.READ RELATED: Mike Hess Brewing Company serving up a different type of alcoholSome of the changes he's made to be compliant with health orders have come at quite a cost. He said in one pay period his labor costs at the Imperial Beach location are three times the norm because they switched from bar service to table service and have to sanitize more often.Across town at Small Bar, Owner Karen Barnett said they shut down at the beginning of July and don't have any plans to reopen.'At the end of the day a business is a business, people are more important.' Barnett said they have been doing take out since the beginning of the pandemic, but never reopened for dine in.She said the small space at her business and horror stories of other restaurants and bars dealing with enforcing social distancing, wearing a mask and employees testing positive with the virus, helped her stick to her guns.On Friday, she posted this on Instagram, "After much consideration, Small Bar will be closing for the entire month of July (possibly longer). When the global pandemic was declared almost 4 months ago, we decided to quickly switch gears and continue to serve our community as thoughtfully and safely as possible. Unfortunately, Americans both near and far don't seem to be listening as closely to science as we are. We no longer deem our services "essential". We care about our community and feel the best move right now is to take a step back for a few weeks. In the meantime, we will be working on our footprint and how we can safely reopen later. We encourage more businesses to follow our lead to help flatten the curve, yet again. We will be working on ways to serve with as little contact as possible, but until that time we wish you all health and peace in the world. Take care."Monday we will find out if all restaurants will have to shut down inside dining, and wait at least three weeks until reopening. 2725

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) — County health officials say a dead Cooper's hawk found in Ramona has tested positive for West Nile Virus.The hawk is the second bird to test positive for the virus in San Diego County in 2019. Two county residents have also tested positive for the virus this year, but officials say both were bitten and contracted the virus in other counties. Across the state, 184 people have tested positive for the virus and five people have died this year.County health officials are now reminding the public to protect themselves from mosquitoes that may be carrying the potentially deadly virus.West Nile virus is mainly a bird disease but can be transmitted to humans via mosquitoes who feed off an infected animal. Symptoms include headache, fever, nausea, fatigue, skin rash or swollen glands.Locals can prevent mosquitoes from breeding by removing any water that is sitting outside of homes or by using mosquito fish to control the bugs in stagnant water sources, like pools, ponds, or fountains. Mosquito repellent that contains DEET, picaridin, oil of lemon eucalyptus, or IR3535 is also recommended. 1123

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) - Cal Fire is battling a brush fire near East San Diego County on the U.S.-Mexico border. The flames broke out after 11 a.m. near the Cottonwood Creek area off SR-94, not far from Barrett Junction. 100 acres burned in the U.S., with the fire spreading to 650 acres in total by 7:30 p.m. It is 10 percent contained.The fire has a moderate rate of spread and was burning light brush, Cal Fire confirmed to 10News. There is no immediate threat to structures, officials said.Images from an SDG&E camera appeared to show heavy smoke over the area.Check 10News Pinpoint Weather conditionsEast County is under an Excessive Heat Warning due to high pressure. Fire danger is also high through the weekend due to the threat of dry lightning, according to 10News meteorologist Megan Parry.Cal Fire has not determined the cause of the brush fire. 859

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) — City Councilman Scott Sherman is throwing his hat in San Diego's race for the next mayor.Sherman (District 7) pulled candidate intention papers this week, signaling his impending run in 2020, according to documents.Sherman becomes one of the only GOP candidates in the race to replace Mayor Kevin Faulconer, who's also a Republican. Bay Park resident Richard Hansen, a former Democrat who left the party in 2016, entered the race in September as a Republican.In 2020, both Faulconer and Sherman will term out of their respective positions.RELATED: Poll: Gloria pulls early lead in San Diego mayoral raceSan Diego's top Democratic mayoral candidates square off in debateThe Republican councilman will enter the race against several Democratic candidates, including councilwoman Barbara Bry, Assemblyman Todd Gloria, and community activist Tasha Williamson. In a September 10News/Union-Tribune poll, of these three candidates, 46 percent of respondents were undecided on who they'd support, while 36 percent sided with Gloria, 15 percent supported Bry, and 8 percent favored Williamson. That poll was also based on whether these three names were the only ones on the ballot.Candidates have until Dec. 5 to file their nomination papers with the city. The position is technically listed as "non-partisan."Sherman's district covers Miramar, Tierrasanta, Serra Mesa, Linda Vista, Mission Valley, Grantville, Allied Gardens, Del Cerro, San Carlos, and Lake Murray. 1484