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One might assume, waking up to discover the name of Texas Sen. Ted Cruz trending in the hundreds of thousands early Tuesday morning, that Sept. 12 was shaping up to be a good day for the one-time Republican presidential candidate and all-time Princess Bride fan.It was not.At some point between midnight and 1 a.m. Eastern, a new entry had appeared under the ‘Likes’ tab, which usually houses dutiful shoutouts and #TexasStrong tweets, on Cruz’s Twitter account. It was swiftly unliked nearly an hour later, and we couldn’t post it here even if it was still up.Because it was a minute-and-a-half clip of pornography involving three people.With one?presidential?exception, few politicians run their own social media pages, so there are many suspects in the case of the errant like. Could it have been an intern or staffer who forgot to log out of the account on their private time? A hacker attempting to strike a quick, precise blow against a candidate who prided himself on a family values platform and strict reproductive healthcare policy? Ted Cruz himself? All are possible, but Cruz's communication adviser didn't have much to say about the incident."The offensive tweet posted on @tedcruz account earlier has been removed by staff and reported to Twitter," tweeted Catherine Frazier?, Cruz's senior communications adviser, according to CNN.One thing is certain, though: Twitter is having a very good time at Cruz’s expense. 1447

OCEANSIDE, Calif. (KGTV) - A sales tax increase approved by voters in November took effect Monday in the City of Oceanside. The city put Measure X on the ballot last fall to raise the tax rate from 7.75 to 8.25 percent. Voters passed the measure, 55 percent to 44 percent. The estimated revenues are expected to bring in million annually, according to city officials.New tax revenues, minus a state administrative fee, will go to the city. The half-cent sales tax was designed to provide money for first responders, pothole maintenance, graffiti clean-up, and public infrastructure projects. The tentative spending plan for the revenues includes an additional Homeless Outreach team, Crime Suppression team, road repairs, and a new police station at the beach."We are grateful to the Citizens of Oceanside for approving Measure X and are working to ensure that they receive tangible enhanced public safety services and infrastructure improvements," said Assistant City Manager Deanna Lorson in a statement to 10News.Measure X is set to expire in seven years. Any extension would require another vote, according to the city’s website. 1145

On their surface, a lot polls got the 2016 election wrong. As late as October 23, 2016, an ABC News poll had Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump by 12%.But pollsters say that polls like the one conducted by ABC News do not even tell the whole story.“National polls are very helpful in giving us a sense of who might win the popular vote. In that regard, 2016 polls were relatively accurate,” said Emily Goodman is a principal at EMC Research, a nationwide polling firm.Hilary Clinton won the popular vote by about 2.8 million votes or 2%. In the last week of the election, many polls had tightened to have Clinton winning by about 2 to 5 percent. Goodman says a lot of people don’t understand polls.“One of the most important things to know about polls is that, they’re just a point in time, it’s a snapshot,” she said. There are a few key things you should look for when it comes to polling, the first being you don’t win the presidency by winning the popular vote.“The path to the presidency is by winning 270 Electoral College votes and that is why the state by state polling is incredibly important,” said Goodman. So nationwide polling won’t tell you who will win. Instead, state by state polling is more helpful.There’s also a few other things you should look for if you see a poll on the news, social media or other places.“The first is timeline, when was it conducted? Are you looking at a poll that was very recent, or a poll that was conducted months ago? Who the poll is conducted among. So are you looking at a poll of adults, are you looking at a poll of registered voters, of likely voters, or some other subset of the population? The sample size, that is, how many people were actually included in the poll? That ultimately tells you what the margin of error is. How the poll was conducted, what was the methodology? Was it conducted on telephone and did those phones include landlines and cellphones? Was it conducted online, over text?” Goodman explains. One key thing there, how polling respondents are reached, and it’s one thing that a pollster who got the 2016 election right says is key.“I don’t want the public face, I want what you really think because your real opinions are what go in that voting booth with you, when nobody is looking," said Robert Cahaly, the lead pollster for the Trafalgar Group,In 2016, Trafalgar projected Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Florida for Donald Trump. He says in 2016, there was a group of hidden Trump supporters. He said it’s a result of what’s called the Social Desirability Bias.“When you speak to a live person on the phone, you tend, especially when you know they know who you are, you tend to give an answer to a question that you think will make you look best in the mind of the person you’re talking to versus your true feeling,” he said. Cahaley says to some people, being seen as a Trump supporter is so undesirable, they won’t tell the truth to people conducting polls on the phone. He’s seeing the same exact thing in 2020 he saw in 2016 and that traditional polling may not be accounting for this.However, Goodman says that the industry is expanding how to reach respondents.“What used to be the gold standard of telephone surveys, exclusively landlines, is no longer appropriate. Cellphones, but beyond just having someone just call up a voter on your cellphone, we’re also now including texting, emailing, that includes a link to take a survey online and using a mix of those methodologies really helps get a representative sample of likely voters,”Both pollsters do agree on one thing however, this election will come down to turn out.“A lot of this is really going to come down to turn out,” said Goodman. “This thing has never been a persuasion election, I’ve said that from the beginning, it’s a motivational election. Whichever side turns out their people is going to win this race, and it’s that simple,” said Cahaley. 3923

Older women with excess body fat, even if they have what's considered a normal body-mass index, could be at greater risk for breast cancer, according to a study published Thursday in the medical journal JAMA Oncology."We do find that excess body fat in those who are post-menopausal with a normal body mass index is associated with about a doubling in the risk of estrogen-dependent breast cancer," said Dr. Andrew Dannenberg, one of the study's authors and director of cancer prevention at the Sandra and Edward Meyer Cancer Center at Weill Cornell Medicine.The American Cancer Society says estrogen-dependent cancers, called ER-positive breast cancer in the study, occur when the receptor proteins in or on cells attach to the hormone estrogen and rely on it to grow.The researchers studied 3,460 American women between the ages of 50 and 79 who had gone through menopause. The women were part of the Women's Health Initiative and had their body composition measured at the beginning of that program, Dannenberg said. Of those women, 146 developed ER-positive breast cancer, and the researchers looked for a relationship between excess body fat and the development of this cancer. 1190

Oklahoma teachers have been rallying at the state Capitol for eight days, but on Wednesday, many showed up for a new reason -- to register to run for office.The window to file candidacy opened at 8 a.m. as dozens of people lined up to turn in their paperwork.Laura Griesel, who was at the Capitol for most of last week, feels that many legislators are not hearing her concerns. The best way to change that, she believes, is to become a representative herself."If nothing else I would listen to the people that live in my district, and what they want to do," she told CNN. "And be open to what it is that they want to see happen in Oklahoma, and not necessarily what my own personal standpoint is on things."They say a change is neededGriesel teaches seventh and eighth grade science at El Reno Public Schools. She feels frustrated that there are not enough textbooks for students to take home and study with. She also has to apply for grants and donations in order to get basic lab equipment for her classroom."And it seems insane to me that we have to go to those lengths to get basic supplies. Things that every student across the world should have -- textbooks," the 32-year-old added.With a 3-year-old child and another on the way, Griesel also worries about making ends meet on her and her husband's teacher salaries. They desperately believe a change is needed.So her sister-in-law, a legislative assistant at the Capitol, encouraged her to join the race when a state representative seat opened in District 41. Griesel created a GoFundMe to cover filing costs, and in seven days, 24 donors gave her more than the 0 needed to file as a representative. 1667