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The polling industry has a lot on the line heading into Tuesday's midterm election.Critics blamed pollsters when voters were caught off guard by Donald Trump's election in 2016. Old cries of "don't believe the polls" became fevered shouts. And the president has encouraged distrust by calling certain polls "fake" and claiming they are used to "suppress" the vote.Although there is no evidence to suggest that is true, there is persistent and widespread suspicion about polling, according to, you guessed it, a McClatchy-Marist poll. And it exists on both sides, albeit in different forms."I think Democrats may have felt let down by the polls but don't think it was an intentional error. I think many Republicans believe the polling errors of 2016 were intentional," GOP pollster and co-founder of Echelon Insights Kristen Soltis Anderson told CNN.So can the industry regain trust?Since 2016 there's been a whole lot of self-reflection in the polling world. Pollsters have tweaked their techniques; pundits have become more cautious when talking about polls; and news outlets have conducted some fascinating experiments.On Tuesday, all the efforts are being put to the test."Some pollsters would disagree with this, but the way that the public generally views whether or not polling is accurate is whether or not it gets the results of the election right," CNN analyst Harry Enten said on "Reliable Sources.""I'm not necessarily sure that's fair," Enten said, "but I do think that there is more pressure on pollsters this year to get it right given the president's rhetoric and given what happened in 2016."Many, though not all, 2016 polls underestimated support for Trump. This effect was particularly pronounced at the state level, where there were embarrassing "misses," showing Hillary Clinton with safe leads in states Trump actually carried.Most national polls accurately showed Clinton winning the popular vote. But reporters and commentators made lots of mistakes in their interpretations of the polls. Readers and viewers did, too. Many people discounted the margin and other factors and made faulty assumptions that Trump would lose to Clinton.There were other problems, too. Predictive features on websites gained lots of traffic before the election but caused lots of consternation afterward. HuffPost's model infamously showed Clinton with a 98 percent chance of winning. "We blew it," the site admitted afterward.But just as importantly, HuffPost's Natalie Jackson tried to explain why.Other news outlets have also tried to be more transparent and remind voters of what polls cannot convey.In special elections since 2016, Democrats have repeatedly outperformed polls of their races.The top example was the Virginia governors' race. "Ralph Northam was favored by three points. He ended up winning by nine," Enten said.But past outcomes are not an indicator of future results."I think many pollsters and forecasters have tried to be much more intentional about explaining uncertainty and being humble about what data can and can't tell us," Anderson said. "Because I think there was a big sense that in 2016, there was more certainty conveyed than may have been justified by the available data."So political pros and reporters are communicating poll results differently this time. Time magazine's Molly Ball, who has a no-predictions rule for herself, said that even people who do make predictions are adding more caveats: There's "less of the, 'Well, the needle shows this' and more of, 'Here's what it doesn't show, here's what we should always remember can happen about probabilities.'"Early voting has been explosive in the midterms, indicating above-average enthusiasm among both Democrats and Republicans. Pollsters have to make assumptions about turnout when contacting "likely voters," and this is a difficult election to forecast.The 2018 electorate is "a universe that doesn't exist yet," Democratic pollster Margie Omero said. "I mean, people don't know whether they're going to vote, some people."They may tell a pollster that they're sure to vote, but never make it to the ballot box. Or they might change who they're voting for.Conversely, certain subsets of voters may have a big impact on the final results without really showing up in the pre-election polling. If pollsters assume relatively low youth turnout, but lots of young people vote for the first time, that could cause big surprises in certain races.The vast majority of people who are called by pollsters decline to participate, so the researchers have to make a huge number of phone calls, bend over backwards to reach a representative sample of people, and weight their results accordingly.Some polls are higher quality than others. Most news outlets tend to favor live interviewers, as opposed to computerized systems, and a mix of landline and cell phone calls. But some outlets are wading into web-based polling. CNN's polling standards preclude reporting on web polls.This fall The New York Times pulled back the curtain by conducting "live polling" and publishing the results in real time, call by call. Working with Siena College, the surveyors made 2,822,889 calls and completed 96 polls of House and Senate races."We wanted to demystify polling for people," said Nate Cohn of The Times' Upshot blog."From our point of view, it's almost a miracle how accurate polls usually are, given all the challenges," Cohn said in an interview with CNN.He emphasized that polls are "very fuzzy things." And the real-time polling showed this to the public. The researchers sought to interview about 500 people for each race that was examined.In Iowa's fourth congressional district, for example, 14,636 calls resulted in 423 interviews.The results showed the incumbent, far-right congressman Steve King, with 47% support, and his Democratic challenger J.D. Scholten with 42%.The Times characterized this as a "slight edge" for King, with lots of room for error. "The margin of sampling error on the overall lead is 10 points, roughly twice as large as the margin for a single candidate's vote share," the Times explained on its website.Cohn's final pre-election story noted that "even modest late shifts among undecided voters or a slightly unexpected turnout could significantly affect results."That's the kind of language that lots of polling experts are incorporating into their stories and live shots, especially in the wake of the 2016 election."With polling, you never actually get to the truth," Cohn said. "You inch towards it, and you think you end up within plus or minus 5 points of it at the end."As Enten put it, "polls are tools," not meant to be perfect. But that message needs to be reinforced through the news media. 6753

The large brawl at the Cambria is now code 4. 2 have been arrested and 2 transported to the hospital with non-life threatening injuries. The investigation is continuing. pic.twitter.com/KRLqlJ6xMS— Anaheim PD (@AnaheimPD) August 5, 2020 244

The plane behind Lion Air's crash off Indonesia was one of Boeing's newest and most advanced jets. It was just two months old and with 800 hours under its belt, so experts are baffled as to what exactly caused the 737 MAX 8 to crash.While no information has been released yet as to why the brand-new plane crashed into the sea 13 minutes after takeoff,?FlightRadar24 has published data that shows the plane behaving erratically during takeoff. When a plane would normally be ascending in the first few minutes of flight, the Lion Air jet experienced a 726-foot drop over 21 seconds.Aviation expert Philip Butterworth-Hayes told CNN that the data was unusual -- especially since takeoffs like this are typically controlled by the plane's automatic systems."This doesn't fit an automatic flight profile," Butterworth-Hayes said while studying the data. "Unless, the aircraft was trying to correct itself at the time for a number of reasons.""This shows an unusually unstable vertical flight profile," he added."Exactly at the same time as the speed increased there was an altitude dip, which meant that at that point there was quite some loss of control."The plane, which has only been in operation since August 15, was carrying 181 passengers as well as six cabin crew members and two pilots, bound for Pangkal Pinang on the Indonesian island of Bangka.Former US National Transportation Safety Board air crash investigator and CNN aviation analyst Peter Goelz told CNN the data clearly showed issues with both the speed and altitude of the plane."There is something obviously wrong in both the air speed and the altitude which would point to the flight control systems," he said. "These are fly-by-wire systems -- highly automated -- and pilots may not be able to troubleshoot failures in a timely manner." 1818

The impact of the pandemic appears to have reached the North Pole. For this holiday season, Santa may be stuck behind Plexiglas. Malls across the country are planning pandemic-minded visits to help prevent the spread of the coronavirus.Mall Santa Steve Miller has been putting on the red suit full-time for four years.“I prefer to do the mall, because I do it for the kids,” sad Miller.But this year, there won’t be any hugs or sitting on Santa’s knee.“Because of the virus, it's going to take a little of fun out of it, but it's going to be much more safe, which is the number one thing that we want,” said Miller.Appearances by St. Nick at malls, corporate events and private appearances is a holiday tradition that’s already being impacted by the pandemic.“We've been working with a lot of retailers as well as malls too. How can we still have the experience of Santa, but keep everybody safe?” said Mitch Allen, founder of HireSanta.com.According to entertainment staffing firm Hire Santa, bookings that usually peak beginning in early November were down 95% due to coronavirus concerns. But after advertising their safety efforts, demand is up 20% compared to this time last year.“The Santa Claus entertainers, as you can imagine, they're a high-risk group. So, we want to make sure that Santa's safety is our number one priority,” said Allen.Allen says they’ve developed a Plexiglas "Santa shield" that creates a physical barrier to allow for photos with Santa.“We at HireSanta.com are also working on virtual Santa visits where you can literally visit with Santa within the confines of your own home,” said Allen.Brookfield Properties, the second largest operator of U.S. malls, says it will host Santa in 134 of its 150 plus malls with "touchless experiences."Santa’s Village, a popular Illinois amusement park temporarily shut down by the pandemic, is taking Santa on the road.“For over 60 years, boys and girls have come to the house here in the park to visit me. But now we're going to take my house to your house,” said the amusement park’s Santa Claus.Their mobile Santa home has a separate entrance and exit to maintain social distancing, and a working fireplace will keep visitors warm and plenty of masks and "Santa-tizer" will be on hand as well.“It's great, because we can actually bring again that magic from the park to people's individual homes in local communities,” said Santa’s Village marketing director Brian Wright. “That way people can actually have a personalized visit with Santa.”Whether behind Plexiglas or inside a traveling "One North Pole," changes are afoot to ensure that Santa Claus is still coming to town. 2653

The Justice Department inspector general found that former FBI Deputy Director Andrew McCabe "lacked candor" on four occasions when discussing the disclosure of information for a Wall Street Journal article about the FBI's Clinton Foundation investigation, according to a copy of the report obtained by CNN on Friday.In addition, the inspector general determined that McCabe was not authorized to disclose the existence of the investigation because it was not within the department's "public interest" exception for disclosing ongoing investigations. The inspector general said that the disclosure to the Journal was made "in a manner designed to advance his personal interests at the expense of department leadership."The instances the inspector general cited were McCabe's conversations with federal investigators and also with then-FBI Director James Comey in October 2016. 884

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