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When experts look at the economy and its rebound, they go through an alphabet soup of letters, with a “V” shape recovery being the best-case scenario. It’s a fast decline with a fast recovery. Letters like “W” or “L” mean a much slower and painful path forward.A resurgence of more COVID-19 cases is shifting the likely shape of our economic recovery, and having economists evaluate the likelihood of a recovery in the shape of the more dreaded letters.“The fact that the virus has increased in a number of states shows that it is still very much a threat not only to one’s health but the economy,” said Michelle Meyer, who heads U.S. Economics at Bank of America. “The initial stage of the recovery was quite robust. It felt quite ‘V’ like, the economy was digging its way out of what was a very deep hole.”According to Bank of America, about a third of the jobs lost during the pandemic have been recovered. However, the recovery has slowed down into more of a “U” shape, and now data is showing a stall with concern of a higher chance of a “W” or “L” shape recovery.“The ‘W’ trajectory would be the worst-case scenario. That would show real fragility on the economy if we dipped back into a recession,” added Meyer.Experts say it would lead even higher unemployment, and more permanent job loss and business closures. In addition, to come out of a “W” or “L” shape recovery, we would need even more stimulus money from the federal government, which may not even improve the economic downturn as much as it did the first time.“Stimulus in Washington provides a really nice band-aid and I think it helped tremendously in the first stage of this recovery but at the end of the day, we need the economy to fundamentally improve,” said Meyer.The good news is unless there is a significant or full shutdown again, a “W” shape recovery is still less likely to occur than a “U” shape.“Our analysis projects that a 'U' shape recovery with rather steep losses and growth this year and rather flat next year and then recovering subsequently is the most likely outcome,” said David Turkington, the Senior Vice President at State Street Associates.A recent State Street study based on 100 years of historical data shows that the U.S. still has 30.1% chance of a “U” recovery, and a combined 24.4% chance of a “W” or “L” shape recovery which include stagflation and depression outcomes.“The real economy I think is what determines the recovery and how that plays forward,” said Turkington.The real economy is jobs, businesses and consumer spending. Providing stability there could determine which way the economy goes. 2615

WINDSOR, N.C. — At least six people were killed as Tropical Storm Isaias spawned tornadoes and dumped rain Tuesday along the U.S. East Coast after making landfall as a hurricane in North Carolina, where it caused floods and fires that displaced dozens of people.Two people died when Isaias spun off a tornado that struck a North Carolina mobile home park. Another person died in Pennsylvania when their vehicle was overtaken by water and swept downstream. Two others were killed by falling trees toppled by the storm in Maryland and New York City, and a sixth person died in Delaware when a tree branch fell on them, authorities said.Isaias sustained top winds of up to 65 mph more than 18 hours after coming ashore, but it was down to 45 mph max winds as of 10:50 p.m. EDT Tuesday, according to the National Hurricane Center. The storm's center was about 45 miles southeast of Montreal, moving northeast into Canada at about 38 mph.As Isaias sped northward, flooding threats followed. The Schuylkill River in Philadelphia was projected to crest early Wednesday at 15.4 feet, its highest level in more than 150 years. By Tuesday night, the river had already topped its banks in low-lying Manayunk, turning bar-lined Main Street into a coffee-colored canal.Aerial video by WRAL-TV showed fields of debris where rescue workers in brightly colored shirts picked through splintered boards and other wreckage of the Windsor, North Carolina, mobile home park where two people were killed. Emergency responders searching the area Tuesday afternoon found no other casualties, and several people initially feared missing had all been accounted for, said Ron Wesson, chairman of the Bertie County Board of Commissioners. He said about 12 people were hospitalized.“It doesn’t look real; it looks like something on TV. Nothing is there,” Bertie County Sheriff John Holley told reporters, saying 10 mobile homes had been destroyed. “All my officers are down there at this time. Pretty much the entire trailer park is gone.”In eastern Pennsylvania, a 44-year-old Allentown woman was killed after encountering high waters on a street in Upper Saucon Township that swept her vehicle downstream Tuesday afternoon, the Lehigh County coroner’s office said.While in New York City, a massive tree fell and crushed a van in the Briarwood section of Queens, killing Mario Siles, a 60-year-old construction contractor who was inside the vehicle, police said. A woman in Mechanicsville, Maryland, died when a tree crashed onto her car during stormy conditions, said Cpl. Julie Yingling of the St. Mary’s County sheriff’s office.In Delaware, authorities said a woman was outside assessing storm damage when she was hit and killed by a falling tree branch.Isaias toggled between hurricane and tropical storm strength as it churned toward the East Coast. Fueled by warm ocean waters, the storm got a late burst of strength as a rejuvenated hurricane with top sustained winds of 85 mph before coming ashore late Monday near Ocean Isle Beach, North Carolina. Its tropical storm status was sustained, but weakened, as it headed north into Canada on Tuesday night.Before making landfall late Monday, Isaias killed two people in the Caribbean and battered the Bahamas before brushing past Florida.Tornadoes were confirmed by the National Weather Service in Virginia, Maryland, Delaware and New Jersey. Power outages also spread as trees fell, with more than 3.7 million customers losing electricity across multiple states as of 10:15 p.m. EDT Tuesday, according to PowerOutage.US, which tracks utility reports. New York City's power utility said it saw more outages from Isaias than from any storm except Superstorm Sandy in 2012.In Doylestown, Pennsylvania, officials said four children were treated for minor injuries after high winds partially tore the roof off a day care center. Also in the Philadelphia suburbs, rescue workers in Delaware County were searching for a young person who fell or jumped into the fast-moving water of a swollen creek, said Timothy Boyce, the county emergency services director.In New York City, fierce wind and rain forced the Staten Island ferry and outdoor subway lines to shut down. The New Jersey Turnpike banned car-pulled trailers and motorcycles.Some of the worst damage Tuesday seemed to be east and north of where the hurricane’s eye struck land in North Carolina.“Fortunately, this storm was fast-moving and has already left our state," Gov. Roy Cooper said Tuesday afternoon.In North Myrtle Beach, South Carolina, the storm sent waves crashing over the Sea Cabin Pier late Monday, causing a big section to collapse into the water as startled bystanders taking photos from the pier scrambled back to land.“I'm shocked it's still standing,” said Dean Burris, who watched from the balcony of a vacation rental.The Hurricane Center had warned oceanside dwellers near the North Carolina-South Carolina state line to brace for storm surge up to 5 feet and up to 8 inches of rain.Eileen and David Hubler were out early Tuesday cleaning up in North Myrtle Beach, where 4 feet (1.2 meters) of storm surge flooded cars, unhinged docks and etched a water line into the side of their home.“When the water started coming, it did not stop,” Eileen Hubler said. They had moved most items of value to their second floor, but a mattress and washing machine were unexpected storm casualties.“We keep thinking we’ve learned our lesson,” she said. “And each time there’s a hurricane, we learn a new lesson.” 5507

WILMINGTON, Del. – President-elect Joe Biden addressed the nation Friday about the November jobs report that shows American companies are hiring at a slower pace as COVID-19 cases spike across the country.The report released by the Department of Labor Friday shows that the unemployment rate fell slightly to a still-high 6.7%. However, the gain of 245,000 jobs last month was the fewest added since the spring, when the pandemic and widespread quarantines forced mass layoffs.Biden started his remarks by calling the jobs report “grim.” He said it showed an economy that’s stalling and we’re in one of the worst economic job crises in modern history. However, he said it doesn’t have to stay that way.“If we act now, now I mean, now, we begin to regain momentum and start to build back a better future,” said Biden. “There’s no time to lose. Millions of people have lost their jobs or had their hours slashed. They’ve lost their health insurance or are in danger of losing their health insurance.”Biden said it’s deeply troubling that last month’s drop in unemployment was driven by people who are dropping out of the job market.“They’ve lost hope of finding a job or they’ve taken full-time caregiving responsibilities as child centers remain closed and their children learn remotely,” he said.Biden listed many sobering statistics that show how much Americans need relief during this crisis.“One in every six renters is behind in rent. One in every four small businesses can’t keep their doors open. And there’s a growing gap in Black and Latino unemployment, and the gab remains much too large,” said Biden.As he doesn’t take office until the end of January, Biden is calling on President Donald Trump and the current Congress to act in the interest of the American people now.“If Congress and President Trump fail to act by the end of December, 12 million Americans will lose their unemployment benefits they rely on,” said Biden. “Merry Christmas. The unemployment benefits allowing them to keep food on the table, to keep the lights on, and the heat on, pay their bills.”If lawmakers don’t act, Biden pointed out that emergency paid leave will end, the moratorium on evictions will expire, and states will lose the vital tools they need to pay for COVID-19 testing and public health.“If we don’t act now, the future will be very bleak,” said Biden.Biden did say he was encouraged by the bipartisan 8 billion relief plan that was proposed this week, but said more aid will be needed throughout 2021 in order to get the country back on track. The latest relief plan doesn’t include ,200 stimulus checks for Americans, but Biden said he’s not convinced it won’t be part of the bill in the end and added that it’s “still in play.”Biden also called for funding for COVID-19 vaccines and testing as the U.S. finds itself in its most perilous point in the COVID-19 pandemic to date.“We need to ramp up testing to allow our schools and businesses to operate safely. The sooner we pass the funding, the sooner we turn the corner on COVID-19,” said Biden.On Thursday, Johns Hopkins said that the U.S. reported record numbers of new COVID-19 deaths and infections. Since Halloween, more than 5 million Americans have contracted COVID-19 — a number that represents about 36% of all cases recorded since the pandemic began.Biden's remarks come days after he announced his picks for key economic positions in his incoming administration. Among them is former Fed chairwoman Janet Yellen, who Biden has tapped to run the Treasury Department. Yellen, a Keynesian economist who is not afraid to allow the government to intervene in the free market, will be tasked with working with Congress to get stimulus packages passed.Biden is also expected to announce his picks for key public health positions in the coming days. On Thursday, Biden said in an interview with CNN that he has asked Dr. Anthony Fauci to remain in his role as the head of the National Institute for Allergies and Infectious Diseases and asked him to be a chief medical adviser to his White House.At the end of his remarks, Biden took some questions from reporters. One asked for Biden’s reaction to those saying his Cabinet picks so far haven’t been diverse enough. He responded by saying his cabinet will be the “single most diverse cabinet” in U.S. history. 4332

While my pushing the money drenched but heavily bureaucratic @US_FDA saved five years in the approval of NUMEROUS great new vaccines, it is still a big, old, slow turtle. Get the dam vaccines out NOW, Dr. Hahn @SteveFDA. Stop playing games and start saving lives!!!— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) December 11, 2020 333

With news of two highly effective COVID-19 vaccines on the horizon, health officials and scientists are giving us new insight into how we could gain herd immunity."If we think of the population as a single group of people with all similar risks and susceptibilities and behaviors, we need 60% of people to be immune, meaning that not only they don’t get sick, but also they don't pass on the virus to other people," says Dr. Stuart Ray, an infectious disease professor and herd immunity expert at Johns Hopkins University.Dr. Ray says achieving herd immunity with the help of a COVID-19 vaccine would mean enough people would either get the vaccine or already have recovered from the virus and be immune to help stop the spread of the virus."It's a little bit like this notion that if you’re going to pass on a message from a lot of people in a group, they have to speak the same language. And the more people don't speak the language, the harder it's going to be to pass that message and there’s a threshold at which the message just gets stopped," says Dr. Ray.Still, it would take a certain number of people to get the vaccine and have that immunity last in order to reach herd immunity. Stanford University's Dr. Bali Pulendran hopes that we can achieve herd immunity, even though there are a certain number of people who are still hesitant to take the vaccine."I think we should remember that a vaccine that is 95% effective is only effective if the majority of people in a population take it. If only half the population or only 60% of the population take it, then we are unlikely to have achieved the level of herd immunity that you need for curbing the disease," says Dr. Pulendran.And if the new COVID-19 vaccine requires two doses, how crucial will it be to make sure people receive that second round of immunization?Asked whether follow up will be a concern, Dr. Ray says, "I think it is a possible concern. We’re going to do a lot of learning. So, one of the things we’ve learned is that some vaccines we thought you needed multiple doses, one dose works pretty well."Doctors say research will be ongoing on the vaccine and the virus itself to ensure people will be protected as much as possible, because so many are hopeful for an end to COVID-19. 2268