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On their surface, a lot polls got the 2016 election wrong. As late as October 23, 2016, an ABC News poll had Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump by 12%.But pollsters say that polls like the one conducted by ABC News do not even tell the whole story.“National polls are very helpful in giving us a sense of who might win the popular vote. In that regard, 2016 polls were relatively accurate,” said Emily Goodman is a principal at EMC Research, a nationwide polling firm.Hilary Clinton won the popular vote by about 2.8 million votes or 2%. In the last week of the election, many polls had tightened to have Clinton winning by about 2 to 5 percent. Goodman says a lot of people don’t understand polls.“One of the most important things to know about polls is that, they’re just a point in time, it’s a snapshot,” she said. There are a few key things you should look for when it comes to polling, the first being you don’t win the presidency by winning the popular vote.“The path to the presidency is by winning 270 Electoral College votes and that is why the state by state polling is incredibly important,” said Goodman. So nationwide polling won’t tell you who will win. Instead, state by state polling is more helpful.There’s also a few other things you should look for if you see a poll on the news, social media or other places.“The first is timeline, when was it conducted? Are you looking at a poll that was very recent, or a poll that was conducted months ago? Who the poll is conducted among. So are you looking at a poll of adults, are you looking at a poll of registered voters, of likely voters, or some other subset of the population? The sample size, that is, how many people were actually included in the poll? That ultimately tells you what the margin of error is. How the poll was conducted, what was the methodology? Was it conducted on telephone and did those phones include landlines and cellphones? Was it conducted online, over text?” Goodman explains. One key thing there, how polling respondents are reached, and it’s one thing that a pollster who got the 2016 election right says is key.“I don’t want the public face, I want what you really think because your real opinions are what go in that voting booth with you, when nobody is looking," said Robert Cahaly, the lead pollster for the Trafalgar Group,In 2016, Trafalgar projected Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Florida for Donald Trump. He says in 2016, there was a group of hidden Trump supporters. He said it’s a result of what’s called the Social Desirability Bias.“When you speak to a live person on the phone, you tend, especially when you know they know who you are, you tend to give an answer to a question that you think will make you look best in the mind of the person you’re talking to versus your true feeling,” he said. Cahaley says to some people, being seen as a Trump supporter is so undesirable, they won’t tell the truth to people conducting polls on the phone. He’s seeing the same exact thing in 2020 he saw in 2016 and that traditional polling may not be accounting for this.However, Goodman says that the industry is expanding how to reach respondents.“What used to be the gold standard of telephone surveys, exclusively landlines, is no longer appropriate. Cellphones, but beyond just having someone just call up a voter on your cellphone, we’re also now including texting, emailing, that includes a link to take a survey online and using a mix of those methodologies really helps get a representative sample of likely voters,”Both pollsters do agree on one thing however, this election will come down to turn out.“A lot of this is really going to come down to turn out,” said Goodman. “This thing has never been a persuasion election, I’ve said that from the beginning, it’s a motivational election. Whichever side turns out their people is going to win this race, and it’s that simple,” said Cahaley. 3923

OCEAN BEACH (KGTV) - A hooded thief appears to have struck again in Ocean Beach. Marguerite Cruz, who is a co-owner of Te Mana Cafe, said someone broke into her restaurant early morning on Valentine’s Day. “I just felt really attacked,” she said with tears in her eyes.She said the burglary was caught on multiple surveillance cameras. The video shows the person crawling in through a window, then using some sort of took to dislodge the cash drawer from the register. A couple weeks ago, less than two blocks away, a criminal was caught on camera breaking into Pat’s Liquor and stealing the entire cash register. Police have not said if they think it is the same criminal, but Cruz seemed certain. “I think this person’s on a roll,” she said.  777

Now more than ever, the impact of not having enough minority schoolteachers is part of the conversation, with efforts focused on undoing systemic disparities.“For so long, I think people have been uncomfortable having discussions about race and how that influences not only students but teachers in a school setting, where you are learning about what society is supposed to look like,” said Eric Duncan, Senior Data and Policy Analyst at The Education Trust.Duncan is part of The Education Trust’s Education Diversity Team, a group that advocates for higher achievement of all students, particularly those of color or living in poverty.Research in Sage Journals found minority students have more favorable perceptions of minority teachers, which can translate to better academic outcomes. Yet, teachers of color make up just 20% of the workforce. Close to 40% of all schools don't have a single teacher of color.Meanwhile, racial and ethnic minority students now make up a majority of the public-school population.Schools have made gains recently hiring more teachers of color, but retention is an issue because they leave the workforce at a higher rate than white teachers. The Education Trust found that's in part due to working conditions.Minority teachers often take on additional roles outside of teaching that they are not paid or even recognized for.School culture is another significant factor.“Discipline policies that educators of color are frankly tired of seeing and our country is tired of seeing the way that students are over disciplined, are misunderstood, particularly students of color, are driven out of school, are suspended for minor misconducts,” said Duncan.The Education Trust has recommendations on how schools can retain teachers of color, starting with collecting data by race and ethnicity on recruitment, hiring and retention. And also, providing scholarships, loan forgiveness or repayment, and relocation incentives.The group also suggests developing leaders that promote positive working conditions for a diverse workforce, and ensuring curriculum, learning and work environments are inclusive of all racial ethnic groups. 2162

Once the fissures open and the hot stuff starts flowing, it's best to not fight nature."The flows cannot be stopped, but people have tried in the past," said Benjamin Andrews, director of the Global Volcanism Program at the Smithsonian Nation Museum of Natural History.Flows can and have been diverted, though. The most famous example, Andrews cites, was in 1973 when the Eldfell volcano exploded on Heimaey, a small island in Iceland. 443

October's market turmoil took an off-day Tuesday.The Dow soared 300 points, the Nasdaq was up 1% and the broader S&P 500 rose 1.1%. Investors were relieved to hear President Donald Trump comment Tuesday that he is willing to negotiate with China on a trade pact.Markets tumbled Monday on fears that the Trump administration could impose a new round of Tariffs on China.Some experts warn that the bull market is peaking. Big tech stocks are plunging as earnings growth has slowed, interest rates have risen and the threat of a longer China trade war has intensified. The S&P 500 fell 8% lower this month.But Brian Belski, chief investment strategist for BMO Capital Markets, thinks there are many years left before things turn around. 749