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A key forecasting model that’s been cited by the White House and state officials now predicts the COVID-19 death toll in the United States will surpass 410,000 by January 1.The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington released its latest forecast Friday, saying the U.S. and other countries in the Northern Hemisphere should prepare for a seasonal rise in COVID-19 cases.COVID-19 has already killed at least 186,800 people in the U.S., according to an ongoing tally from Johns Hopkins University.“I would call the surge in the winter that we’re forecasting a second wave,” said IHME Director Dr. Christopher Murray in a call with reporters Friday.The IHME says COVID-19 has followed seasonal patterns similar to pneumonia and if that correlation continues to hold, northern countries can anticipate more cases in the late fall and winter months.“The worst is yet to come,” warned Murray. “I don’t think perhaps that’s a surprise, although I think there’s a natural tendency as we’re a little bit in the Northern Hemisphere summer, to think maybe the epidemic is going away.”The IHME’s prediction of 410,000 U.S. deaths by Jan. 1 is its most likely scenario, but it also provided a worst-case scenario. If mask usage stays the same and states continue to relax social distancing requirements, the IHME model predicts over 620,000 Americans could die from the virus by the new year.The IHME’s best-case scenario, where mask usage is universal and governments impose social distancing requirements, shows more than 286,000 people dying across the nation by the end of the year.“We are facing the prospect of a deadly December, especially in Europe, Central Asia, and the United States,” said Murray in a statement. “But the science is clear and the evidence irrefutable: mask-wearing, social distancing, and limits to social gatherings are vital to helping prevent transmission of the virus.”Globally, the IHME predicts that nearly 770,000 lives could be saved between now and Jan. 1 through proven measures such as mask-wearing and social distancing.Across the world, deaths expected by Jan. 1 total 2.8 million, about 1.9 million more from now until the end of the year, the IHME says. Daily deaths in December could reach as high as 30,000.Under the most likely of IHME’s scenarios, the nations with the highest per capita total deaths would be the U.S. Virgin Islands, the Netherlands, and Spain.The IHME says these five countries will most likely have the highest cumulative death tolls by Jan. 1:India: 659,537U.S.: 410,451Brazil: 174,297Mexico: 138,828Japan: 120,514IHME says its projections are based on an epidemiological model that includes data on cases, deaths, and antibody prevalence, as well as location-specific COVID-19 testing rates, mobility, social distancing mandates, mask use, population density and age structure, and pneumonia seasonality, which shows a strong correlation with the trajectory of COVID-19. 2977
A California surgeon who had been accused of drugging and raping two women was charged with five more cases Wednesday, bringing the total number of alleged victims to seven.Grant Robicheaux, 38, pleaded not guilty to the charges.His girlfriend, Cerissa Riley, 31, was also charged in three additional cases, and pleaded not guilty."We unequivocally deny all allegations of nonconsensual sex and absolutely deny any allegations that we have ever secretly drugged anyone for the purpose of having sex with them," the couple said in a statement.They said they passed polygraph tests and knew about the investigation since January. "We didn't flee, we didn't move, and we didn't go into hiding. ... We look forward to getting our lives back."Orange County prosecutors also added kidnapping charges against Robicheaux and Riley. 831

A man in Colorado who was sentenced to more than 300 years in prison for child sex crimes in 2015, is now walking free after his conviction was thrown out on a technicality.Michael Tracy McFadden, 46, was convicted for 19 counts of sexual offenses, including a habitual sex offender against children, according to KKCO. McFadden was released from the Arkansas Valley Correctional Facility on Tuesday.In June, the Colorado Court of Appeals found that McFadden's right to a speedy trial was violated when the judge in the case granted a continuance. When the court ruled that his statutes were violated, they threw out his conviction."Frankly I'm completely appalled with the decision," District Attorney Dan Rubenstein told KREX. "I find it offensive that our justice system would allow this to happen."Rubenstein explained to KREX that speedy trials are broken down into two categories: constitutional and statual.Constitutional speedy trials have no timeframe, depending on the case. However, in Colorado, statutory speedy right trials require a time frame of six months.Rubinstein told reporters, “Because the error here was that he shouldn’t have been tried longer than six months from the last time he waived speedy trial, there was no remedy for that, and therefore there is no ability to retry him." "The justice system completely failed in this situation. If you've heard the phrase 'got off on a technicality,' this is the phrase to the most stark sense I've ever seen it," said Rubinstein.Reports state that McFadden has been exonerated from all of his charges and does not have to register as a sex offender. 1661
A chickenpox outbreak among students at Asheville Waldorf School in North Carolina has grown to 36 cases as of Monday, and exemptions from vaccination were a contributing factor, according to the Buncombe County Health Department, which has been monitoring the situation since the end of October.Asheville Waldorf School, which serves students from nursery through sixth grade, is part of an educational movement that subscribes to a philosophy focused on physical activity and learning through hands-on tasks, according to its website. There are more than 900 Waldorf schools in 83 countries, and the Asheville school, which was founded in 2009, is one of about 160 in the United States.The school is closed for Thanksgiving break and could not be reached for comment.Chickenpox is a very contagious disease that causes a blister-like rash, itching, tiredness and fever, according to the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The disease is caused by the varicella-zoster virus, and a vaccine was introduced in 1995. Two doses of the vaccine, given at ages 12 months through 15 months and then again at 4 through 6 years, are about 90% effective at preventing chickenpox. 1189
A Florida man accused of groping a passenger on Southwest Airlines told an FBI agent after his arrest that the "President of the United States says it's OK to grab women by their private parts," according to a criminal complaint.Bruce Michael Alexander, 49, a Tampa resident, was in federal custody after being charged federally on Sunday with abusive sexual contact on a female passenger during a flight from Houston to Albuquerque, New Mexico, the complaint said.It's unclear if Alexander has an attorney.The charge carries a maximum penalty of two years in prison and a 0,000 fine.The woman was identified in court documents as "C.W." She told investigators she fell asleep after boarding Flight 5421 and 15 to 20 minutes into the flight, she "felt a movement on the right side of her sweater," the complaint said. 828
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