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SAN DIEGO (KGTV) — The latest ABC News national polling average shows former Vice President Joe Biden leading President Donald Trump by 8 points.But a lot of people are wondering, can we trust the polls after what happened in 2016?The last time Donald Trump was on the ballot in 2016, the polls had him trailing former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton by an average of 3.2 percentage points, and we know what happened.However, pollsters weren’t off by as much as you might think.“At the national level, the polling was, remarkably, given all things, precise,” said Jay Leve, CEO of the polling firm SurveyUSA.Trump lost the popular vote by 2.1 points instead of 3.2, the most accurate these national polls had been in 80 years, according to an analysis by the American Association for Public Opinion Research.Where the polls did miss badly was at the state level, particularly in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, three states that were critical in the Electoral College.Leve said there were several reasons for the polling problems at the state level.“Polling is a very expensive undertaking and so it is not possible for the handful of media organizations with pockets deep enough to afford a public opinion poll to be able to poll in every critical battleground state,” he said.Another reason? “Some of it has to do with what’s called ‘weighting,’” he added.To understand weighting, you have to know the two R’s of a good poll: it needs to be representative and random.Random samples are critical to the accuracy of polling, and you can look to your kitchen for an example why. Picture adding salt to a soup. If you mix it right, you can check the taste with any one spoonful -- you don’t have to eat the entire pot. That’s because each spoonful is a truly random sample.If you don’t mix the salt in, you could easily wind up sampling a part of the soup without any salt.When you’re trying to sample the American public with a political poll, either over the phone or most of the time now online, it’s more challenging to get a perfectly random spoonful.“The challenge is to find the individuals in the right numbers and secure their cooperation. Those two things don’t automatically work in sync,” Leve said. “People don’t want to be disturbed. They want privacy and a pollster by definition is an interruption.”It turns out, certain people tend to resist taking polls, while others are more willing. Research shows people with college degrees are more likely to respond to surveys than high school grads.That means surveys run the risk of not being representative of the voter population at large, and Leve said that kind of imbalance played a big role in 2016.To make a sample representative, pollsters gather up as many responses as they can, then adjust them with a process called weighting -- basically boosting or shrinking responses from people with certain demographics to match census data and the expected turnout.“The weighting criteria that was in issue in 2016 was whether you had enough non-college educated white voters in your sample,” Leve said. “If you did, you got the Trump forecast correct.”State polls that didn’t weight by education level missed badly, because to an extent far greater than in previous elections, voters with a college education broke for Clinton while voters with a high school education backed Trump.There’s some evidence that pollsters have learned from their 2016 mistakes. Polling in the 2018 midterms was very accurate -- a full point better than the average over the last 20 years.So can we trust the polls this time around?Leve says yes, as long as you remember that polls are just a snapshot in time and Donald Trump is difficult to predict.“Don’t be surprised if something happens in the final four, five, six days of the election, right before November 3rd, that’s so unforeseeable that neither you nor I nor anyone watching us could have imagined. And if so, that’s going to throw all the polls off,” he said. 3979

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) - The International Olympic Committee and Japanese government made an historic announcement Tuesday to postpone the 2020 summer Olympic games in Tokyo due to the coronavirus.Tuesday, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe confirmed on Twitter that the Tokyo Olympic and Paralympic games have been delayed until no later than summer 2021.The announcement left several San Diegan Olympic hopefuls dashed of any immediate Olympic dreams."It's kind of hard to wrap your head around it because you have been training so long for this one moment," Allison Halverson said back in Februaray.Her tone changed Tuesday."I was kind of like, 'Ok. That's good to know.' Now I can kind of refocus and figure out how to train for that," Halverson said.Swimmer Michael Chadwick says the lack of open pools is sidelining any training, making competition right now even less of a possibility."Too much has happened too quickly for us to really understand what the ramifications of it all are," Chadwick said. "We as athletes cannot expect to make a push right now, physically, it's just impossible. Especially with not having a pool open."A new date for the postponed games has not been announced. 1199

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) - The City of San Diego is rolling out the second phase of the polystyrene foam and single-use plastics ordinance as the Memorial Day weekend kicks off. Starting May 24, a ban on the sale and distribution of egg cartons, food service ware and food trays made from polystyrene foam begins. The ban includes bowls, plates, trays, cups, lids and other similar items designed for single-use. According to the city, polystyrene foam doesn’t biodegrade and can be mistaken for food by marine life and other animals. Acceptable alternatives include recyclable plastic, aluminum and recyclable paper products, the city says. Some businesses that make less than 0,000 are exempt until 2020. “The City’s goal is to achieve zero waste by 2040,” said the City’s Environmental Services Department Director, Mario X. Sierra. “This ordinance not only helps in achieving that goal, but also improves water quality, reduces pollution and keeps our environment healthy.” 980

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) - Sunday morning's rain caused crashes on roadways, damage to construction zones and danger in Sunset Cliffs.One of those crashes had Cristal Ramirez in the passenger seat. "I was supposed to drive for brunch but my friend picked us up and I was glad because I didn't want to drive in the rain," she said.She said as they took the connector from the 163 to the I-8 West they started sliding, "I think we were driving a little too fast because of the rain." Ramirez said they grazed the guardrail. The tires were out of alignment, making it necessary to call for a tow truck."We were like what the heck this is wild!" She said.The group didn't let the accident ruin their afternoon, they continued on in Ramirez's car to Sunset Cliffs.The danger still lurking behind yellow caution tape, draped along the edge of one part of the cliff. From where she and her two friends stood, you could see the cliff carved away underneath the seemingly solid edge."I didn't think about it, I was like 'Oh we're close to the edge.' and we started playing around and I was like, 'Oh we probably shouldn't be playing this close to the edge," Ramirez said when she realized the danger.South of Sunset Cliffs, another problem at the Silver Strand State Beach exit off SR 75. The rain caused metal plates covering trenches in a construction area to bend inward.Crews rushed out to reinforce the plates to make them safe, adding wood supports. An engineer told 10News the construction should be finished by next week, if the weather doesn't delay the work. 1559

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) - The County of San Diego released a 200-page report on Thursday that examines its handling of the recent Hepatitis A outbreak that infected almost 600 people and caused 20 deaths.The report details the county’s successes and what recommendations it has for the future. County officials have been criticized by some people who believe there was not enough action taken at the time.“The county seems to be more interested in its [own image] rather than solving problems,” prominent homeless advocate Michael McConnell told 10News by phone Thursday. He said that from what he knows, there’s little new information in the audit.RELATED: Health officials reminding San Diegans about hepatitis A shotMcConnell added it appears there’s little insight into what could’ve been done before the health concern became a full-blown epidemic.“It certainly appears there were many flaws in the reaction,” McConnell said.McConnell wrote a letter Thursday to state Assemblymember Todd Gloria, outlining a “disturbing timeline,” claiming county officials knew about the outbreak last March but didn't meet until May 4, "despite three deaths and 80 documented cases.”RELATED: Hepatitis A emergency officially ends in San Diego County A state of emergency was declared in September and it was lifted in January.Gloria recently asked for a state audit on the outbreak.In the county’s defense, the report says it acted at the start of the outbreak by providing vaccinations, promoting sanitation and educating community medical providers.RELATED: Audit questioning San Diego's response to hepatitis A outbreak requestedThe report does, however, acknowledge the needs for better coordination among leadership, more training and improving the county’s immunization registry system, among other recommendations.McConnell says, “I think for the most part [the county’s saying], ‘We did a great job. Here are [sic] some minor things we can change. Let this go away.'"Assemblymember Gloria's request for an audit will be heard next week by the Joint Legislative Audit Committee.The full report can be found here. 2135