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OCEANSIDE, Calif. (KGTV) -- Hundreds showed up early Saturday morning for the Oceanside half-Ironman. The race is a total of 70.3 miles of biking, swimming and running. For one local Camp Pendleton marine, the race meant so much more. Captain John Watkins participated in the Ironman in memory of his daughter, Amelia Mae Watkins, also known as Millie. Millie passed away when she was just 10-years-old from neuroblastoma last year. Since Millie's death, her family raises money to raise awareness about her specific type of cancer. The Watkins raised over ,000 dollars for this race. If you'd like to donate click here: https://www.milliemaestrong.com/  704

On their surface, a lot polls got the 2016 election wrong. As late as October 23, 2016, an ABC News poll had Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump by 12%.But pollsters say that polls like the one conducted by ABC News do not even tell the whole story.“National polls are very helpful in giving us a sense of who might win the popular vote. In that regard, 2016 polls were relatively accurate,” said Emily Goodman is a principal at EMC Research, a nationwide polling firm.Hilary Clinton won the popular vote by about 2.8 million votes or 2%. In the last week of the election, many polls had tightened to have Clinton winning by about 2 to 5 percent. Goodman says a lot of people don’t understand polls.“One of the most important things to know about polls is that, they’re just a point in time, it’s a snapshot,” she said. There are a few key things you should look for when it comes to polling, the first being you don’t win the presidency by winning the popular vote.“The path to the presidency is by winning 270 Electoral College votes and that is why the state by state polling is incredibly important,” said Goodman. So nationwide polling won’t tell you who will win. Instead, state by state polling is more helpful.There’s also a few other things you should look for if you see a poll on the news, social media or other places.“The first is timeline, when was it conducted? Are you looking at a poll that was very recent, or a poll that was conducted months ago? Who the poll is conducted among. So are you looking at a poll of adults, are you looking at a poll of registered voters, of likely voters, or some other subset of the population? The sample size, that is, how many people were actually included in the poll? That ultimately tells you what the margin of error is. How the poll was conducted, what was the methodology? Was it conducted on telephone and did those phones include landlines and cellphones? Was it conducted online, over text?” Goodman explains. One key thing there, how polling respondents are reached, and it’s one thing that a pollster who got the 2016 election right says is key.“I don’t want the public face, I want what you really think because your real opinions are what go in that voting booth with you, when nobody is looking," said Robert Cahaly, the lead pollster for the Trafalgar Group,In 2016, Trafalgar projected Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Florida for Donald Trump. He says in 2016, there was a group of hidden Trump supporters. He said it’s a result of what’s called the Social Desirability Bias.“When you speak to a live person on the phone, you tend, especially when you know they know who you are, you tend to give an answer to a question that you think will make you look best in the mind of the person you’re talking to versus your true feeling,” he said. Cahaley says to some people, being seen as a Trump supporter is so undesirable, they won’t tell the truth to people conducting polls on the phone. He’s seeing the same exact thing in 2020 he saw in 2016 and that traditional polling may not be accounting for this.However, Goodman says that the industry is expanding how to reach respondents.“What used to be the gold standard of telephone surveys, exclusively landlines, is no longer appropriate. Cellphones, but beyond just having someone just call up a voter on your cellphone, we’re also now including texting, emailing, that includes a link to take a survey online and using a mix of those methodologies really helps get a representative sample of likely voters,”Both pollsters do agree on one thing however, this election will come down to turn out.“A lot of this is really going to come down to turn out,” said Goodman. “This thing has never been a persuasion election, I’ve said that from the beginning, it’s a motivational election. Whichever side turns out their people is going to win this race, and it’s that simple,” said Cahaley. 3923

On social media, Nikolas Cruz did not appear to be a peaceful man. He made quite clear his desire to perpetrate the exact type of violence of which he now stands accused.Before he allegedly committed one of the worst mass shootings in US history at a Parkland, Florida, high school on Wednesday, police officials say Cruz wrote social media posts so threatening he was twice reported to the FBI.He hurled slurs at blacks and Muslims, and according to the Anti-Defamation League, had ties to white supremacists. He said he would shoot people with his AR-15 and singled out police and anti-fascist protesters as deserving of his vengeance. Just five months ago, he stated his aspiration to become a "professional school shooter."Yet on the morning of the massacre, the family that took the 19-year-old into their home didn't notice anything terribly strange about the young man's behavior, the family's attorney said Thursday.The only thing abnormal was that he didn't get up for his adult GED class. Normally, the father would take him to class on the way to work, but when they tried to wake Cruz up Wednesday, he said something like, "It's Valentine's Day. I don't go to school on Valentine's Day," according to the lawyer."They just blew it off," attorney Jim Lewis said. "This is some 19-year-old that didn't want to get up and go to school that day, and (they) left it at that."The family took Cruz in last year after his adoptive mother died. Cruz was depressed, Lewis said. The family's son knew Cruz, so they opened their home, got him into a GED class and helped him get a job at a Dollar Tree, the lawyer said."He seemed to be doing better," Lewis said.Prior to the mass shooting that left 17 adults and children dead at Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School, Cruz had exchanged texts with the son, who was a student there.Lewis characterized the texts as, "How you doing? What's going on? Yo, you coming over later?" That kind of stuff. Nothing to indicate anything bad was going to happen."Cruz had a gun. The family knew that, but they had established rules. He had to keep it in a lockbox in his room. Cruz had the key to the lockbox, the attorney said."This family did what they thought was right, which was take in a troubled kid and try to help him, and that doesn't mean he can't bring his stuff into their house. They had it locked up and believed that that was going to be sufficient, that there wasn't going to be a problem. Nobody saw this kind of aggression or motive in this kid, that he would ever do anything like this," Lewis said. Writing on the wall? 2590

Ohio State University placed its head football coach, Urban Meyer, on paid administrative leave on Wednesday as it investigates whether he was aware of domestic violence allegations against fired assistant coach Zach Smith."The university is conducting an investigation into these allegations," Ohio State said. Ryan Day, who has been the team's offensive coordinator, will be acting head football coach while Meyer is on leave."We are focused on supporting our players and on getting to the truth as expeditiously as possible," the university said.Meyer said in a statement that he and Gene Smith, Ohio State's athletic director, "agree that being on leave during this inquiry will facilitate its completion. This allows the team to conduct training camp with minimal distraction. I eagerly look forward to the resolution of this matter."At issue is whether Meyer knew about domestic violence allegations against Zach Smith made by his ex-wife, Courtney Smith. Zach Smith was the team's wide receivers' coach. 1018

One volunteer Santa Claus might end up on the "naughty list" this Christmas as a 66-year-old New Jersey man who dresses up as Santa for the holidays was accused of possessing a crack pipe on Monday, WABC-TV reported. Charles Smith, of Pompton Lakes, New Jersey, was charged with two counts of drug paraphernalia, WABC reported. South Hackensack Police Department Captain Robert Kaiser told WABC that Smith was found with a crack pipe and empty bags of crack and heroin.Smith was pulled over by law enforcement on Monday, and was arrested after officers spotted the crack pipe in plain view. Police added that Smith's Santa costume was also in plain view. WABC reported that Smith works as a volunteer for the Toys for Tots program.  785

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