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On their surface, a lot polls got the 2016 election wrong. As late as October 23, 2016, an ABC News poll had Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump by 12%.But pollsters say that polls like the one conducted by ABC News do not even tell the whole story.“National polls are very helpful in giving us a sense of who might win the popular vote. In that regard, 2016 polls were relatively accurate,” said Emily Goodman is a principal at EMC Research, a nationwide polling firm.Hilary Clinton won the popular vote by about 2.8 million votes or 2%. In the last week of the election, many polls had tightened to have Clinton winning by about 2 to 5 percent. Goodman says a lot of people don’t understand polls.“One of the most important things to know about polls is that, they’re just a point in time, it’s a snapshot,” she said. There are a few key things you should look for when it comes to polling, the first being you don’t win the presidency by winning the popular vote.“The path to the presidency is by winning 270 Electoral College votes and that is why the state by state polling is incredibly important,” said Goodman. So nationwide polling won’t tell you who will win. Instead, state by state polling is more helpful.There’s also a few other things you should look for if you see a poll on the news, social media or other places.“The first is timeline, when was it conducted? Are you looking at a poll that was very recent, or a poll that was conducted months ago? Who the poll is conducted among. So are you looking at a poll of adults, are you looking at a poll of registered voters, of likely voters, or some other subset of the population? The sample size, that is, how many people were actually included in the poll? That ultimately tells you what the margin of error is. How the poll was conducted, what was the methodology? Was it conducted on telephone and did those phones include landlines and cellphones? Was it conducted online, over text?” Goodman explains. One key thing there, how polling respondents are reached, and it’s one thing that a pollster who got the 2016 election right says is key.“I don’t want the public face, I want what you really think because your real opinions are what go in that voting booth with you, when nobody is looking," said Robert Cahaly, the lead pollster for the Trafalgar Group,In 2016, Trafalgar projected Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Florida for Donald Trump. He says in 2016, there was a group of hidden Trump supporters. He said it’s a result of what’s called the Social Desirability Bias.“When you speak to a live person on the phone, you tend, especially when you know they know who you are, you tend to give an answer to a question that you think will make you look best in the mind of the person you’re talking to versus your true feeling,” he said. Cahaley says to some people, being seen as a Trump supporter is so undesirable, they won’t tell the truth to people conducting polls on the phone. He’s seeing the same exact thing in 2020 he saw in 2016 and that traditional polling may not be accounting for this.However, Goodman says that the industry is expanding how to reach respondents.“What used to be the gold standard of telephone surveys, exclusively landlines, is no longer appropriate. Cellphones, but beyond just having someone just call up a voter on your cellphone, we’re also now including texting, emailing, that includes a link to take a survey online and using a mix of those methodologies really helps get a representative sample of likely voters,”Both pollsters do agree on one thing however, this election will come down to turn out.“A lot of this is really going to come down to turn out,” said Goodman. “This thing has never been a persuasion election, I’ve said that from the beginning, it’s a motivational election. Whichever side turns out their people is going to win this race, and it’s that simple,” said Cahaley. 3923

On Monday, the 16th anniversary of 9/11, a Fox News commentator wondered if a memorial for victims of the terrorist attack might eventually meet the same fate as statues depicting Confederate generals.In an interview with Interior Secretary Ryan Zinke, "Fox & Friends" co-host Brian Kilmeade alluded to a memorial for passengers of United Flight 93 in Shanksville, Pennsylvania, where Zinke was slated to speak."Do you worry that 100 years from now someone is going to take that memorial down like they are trying remake our memorials today?" Kilmeade asked, referring to the recent controversies that have led to the removal of statues for Confederate military leaders like Robert E. Lee. 701

OLYMPIA, Wash. — When Dana English went home during her lunch break on August 22 she didn't expect to see her 6-year-old son, Carter, covered in blood.The mother was aghast to see her son sitting on the front steps of their home in Olympia, Washington, bleeding and injured."I just instantly flipped out," English said in an interview with KOMO. Carter saw a child being bullied outside the family's home and told the group of kids to stop, English said. The group of about six or seven kids started attacking him with rocks, sticks and rubbed sawdust in his eyes.English took her son to the emergency room immediately.  648

Officials with Operation Warp Speed confirmed Wednesday that they remain on track in their goal to distribute 20 million initial doses of COVID-19 vaccines by the end of the month.Health and Human Services Sec. Alex Azar, as well as Operation Warp Speed chief medical adviser Dr. Moncef Slaoui and the operation's chief operating officer Gen. Gus F. Perna, said Wednesday that the first shipments of Pfizer's COVID-19 vaccine were delivered largely without issue.The briefing comes just two days after medical centers across the country began administering the first initial doses of a COVID-19 vaccine made by Pfizer. That vaccine was approved for Emergency Use Authorization by the FDA last Friday and was formally recommended by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention over the weekend.The briefing also comes a day before a vote by an FDA panel on whether to recommend a COVID-19 vaccine produced by Moderna for Emergency Use Authorization. Should the panel vote in favor of the recommendation, it would keep the Moderna vaccine on track for authorization by next week.In a report released Tuesday, the FDA reaffirmed Moderna's safety and efficacy statistics that were published following the conclusion of the drug's Phase III trial. Slaoui also said that a vaccine candidate produced by Johnson & Johnson is slated to fill its Phase III trials by tomorrow, and that initial efficacy data for that drug would be available by early January. He added that initial results of a vaccine candidate produced by AstraZeneca could be available later in January.Azar also said Wednesday that though supplies remain limited, there are still some therapeutic drugs, like antibody treatments, available for high-risk COVID-19 in some areas. Azar encouraged any high-risk patients who have been diagnosed with the virus to ask their healthcare provider about the availability of the drugs. 1900

OCEANSIDE (KGTV) - It’s been nine months of physical therapy since a great white shark attacked Keane Webre-Hayes. “My love of the ocean is much more than my fear of sharks.” Webre-Hayes tells 10News. He’s been determined to get back into the ocean. While it’s been a long process, he finally made it out spearfishing. Josh Fleming owns Meric Spearfishing in Oceanside, he has been helping get Webre-Hayes ready to dive back into the ocean. “He gave me a gift certificate saying whatever it costs and he got me all geared up.” Fleming gave Webre-Hayes a new diving suit, speargun and other gear to help him prepare for his spearfishing adventures. Webre-Hayes was attacked by the great white shark during his first time lobster diving. He underwent hours of surgery, got one thousand stitches and has continued months of physical therapy. He’s been through intensive therapy at Equinox and Nakoa in Carlsbad. “I love the ocean it’s my second home basically.” Webre-Hayes tells 10News. The shark broke the top of his humorous, tore off his rotator cuff, broke the scapula in three different places and he’s missing parts of his deltoid and lateral muscles. Webre-Hayes tells 10News, “It was a gnarly bite and its crazy that I’m going to be throwing out the first pitch at the Padres game.” Before spearfishing came baseball. He was a left-handed pitcher until his left side was attacked back in September. Nine months later, he’s living out his dream of throwing out the first pitch at the Padres game Tuesday night. “My wish came true just didn’t find the best way to get it.” Webre-Hayes is looking forward to the evening surrounded by his team from Rady Children’s, his physical therapists and Fleming. 1713

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