濮阳东方男科价格便宜(濮阳东方医院男科割包皮非常便宜) (今日更新中)

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) — As states continue to count votes, one thing is clear: the pre-election polls were off again.Pollsters underestimated support for President Donald Trump by a wider margin than they did in 2016, prompting a number of theories about what went wrong and why changes adopted after the 2016 election proved ineffective.Heading into Election Day 2020, candidate Joe Biden led Trump nationally by an average of 8.4%, according to FiveThirtyEight’s polling average. We won’t know the final margin until all the votes are counted, but it looks like Trump’s support was underestimated by about 3.5%.That’s wider than the national popular vote miss in 2016, when the polls underestimated Trump’s support by 1.1%.“Polling emerged from 2016 with a black eye. This is fair to say a second black eye in 2020,” said Jay Leve of polling firm SurveyUSA.Leve said the industry thought it had corrected its 2016 mistakes. Polling in the 2018 midterms was very accurate.In 2020, pollsters made sure to weigh for education level and include enough non-college-educated white voters to try to capture a representative sample of the electorate.But state polls show it didn’t work. In Ohio, there was a nearly 8-point miss. In Wisconsin, there was a nearly 10-point miss. In Florida, the polls missed by 5 points and incorrectly showed Biden in the lead.“While pollsters attempted to correct for the mistakes that they made in 2016, President Trump was busy hammering home a narrative that, number one, the media is the enemy of the people. And number two, polls are fake polls,” Leve said.Leve thinks that skepticism and distrust caused Trump supporters to ignore pollsters at a higher rate, causing them to be underrepresented in samples.San Diego State political scientist Dr. Stephen Goggin says there are other theories as well.“Between mail-in balloting, the pandemic, between all the early voting and all the confusion it creates, it’s possible some of that played a role in creating the error we saw this time,” he said.Goggin said the pandemic may have made the models used to predict voter turnout less accurate this cycle. Many surveys heading into the election showed an unusual trend: Biden was polling better among so-called “likely voters” than among registered voters overall. Typically Republicans hold an edge among likely voters, Nate Cohn of the New York Times noted.There’s also some early data suggesting once the pandemic hit, Democrats started responding to surveys more frequently, something that could have shifted the poll numbers.There may have also been issues surveying certain demographic groups. Pre-election polls showed Biden chipping away at Trump’s lead with seniors compared to 2016, but Biden actually did worse than Clinton with that demographic in certain key states. Trump’s support among Hispanic voters in Florida also surprised pollsters. If exit polling data shows that trend continued in other states, it might explain about one-quarter of this year’s polling error, according to the New York Times.“Many of these errors are fixable when they find out what went wrong and you can still get high-quality samples,” Goggin said.Pollsters are planning to do detailed autopsies on the election once they have final turnout data and results by precinct. Polling firms will eventually post detailed data from their results to the Roper Center for more finely tuned analysis.ABC 10News used SurveyUSA this election cycle to poll 11 state and local races. The final polls accurately predicted the winner in all 11 races, although the margins weren’t perfect.The ABC 10News/Union-Tribune scientific polls actually overestimated Trump’s support in California by about 4 points, relative to vote totals as of November 12. 3757

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) -- At the Sycuan Visitors Center in El Cajon, you'll find pieces of history on display. Tools, clothing, baskets, even instruments, all tracing their origin to the Kumeyaay people."We were very important in shaping this landscape, so we developed the landscape and the landscape developed us," said Ethan Banegas, who teaches Kumeyaay history and is Kumeyaay himself.The Kumeyaay people live on 12 reservations in southern California and six in Mexico. Their history is rooted deeply in the San Diego area."We have old village sites all over. Old Town, where the first mission was, was an old village called Kasoy, " Banegas explained. According to Banegas, at one point, the Kumeyaay people lived from the desert to the mountains to the ocean and numbered between 30 and 50 thousand.RELATED: Native American tribes join to celebrate life and heritage at San Diego powwowBy the late 1800s, historians estimate the Kumeyaay population had dwindled to as low as 1000. Even as numbers started to rebound, the language and music continued to fade. Banegas says at one point traditional singers had all but disappeared. However, there was a resurgence in the 1960s that continues today."We have a whole generation learning these songs that were basically gone."As for the language, there are only about a dozen speakers left in the U.S. and a few dozen more in Mexico. But there's an effort underway to teach young people and keep it alive. Banegas says a turning point for many tribes was gaming, which provided an economic solution to the severe poverty many people experienced on the reservations. Today Banegas and others are using education to keep their culture alive and hope that during this Native American heritage month, San Diegans take time to remember the people who've called this land home for thousands of years. 1849

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) - By the time polls close Tuesday night at 8 p.m., the San Diego County Registrar of Voters could have already processed more than 1.1 million ballots. Registrar Michael Vu says it's possible the first results of the night, released sometime before 9 pm, could account for up to 70% of the total vote.Those numbers will include more than a million mail-in ballots that the Registrar has already received and processed, as well as any in-person votes cast between Saturday and Monday.But those early numbers may not provide clarity."In our world, nothing is over until the election is certified," says Vu.Certification doesn't happen until December 3. And mail-in ballots can still arrive at the Registrar's office as late as November 20th to be counted, as long as they were postmarked by November 3."There's 196 contests on the ballot," says Vu. "For some it will show really wide gaps. And in others, it will show like it's neck and neck and it will continue all the way through until we certify the election."For races that may be close, like the San Diego Mayor's race, those late arriving ballots could be the difference between winning and losing."When you have such a close race at the local level, 10,000 or 20,000 votes left to be counted could be quite significant," says Evan Crawford, Assistant Professor of Political Science at University of San Diego.Crawford says it's common for local races to have changes after election day, noting that early results aren't official until every ballot is counted."We might have to prepare ourselves to not know on election night," says Crawford.He points to the June Primary election for Mayor, where City Councilman Scott Sherman led Barbara Bry for the second spot in the November election. As more ballots went into the final numbers, Bry overtook Sherman to advance.Thad Kousser, the Political Science Department Chair at UC San Diego, says voters should use patience when looking for a clear winner."Even though the game ends on election night when the polls close, no one can cast a ballot after that, it's going to take a while to tally the points for both sides," Kousser says. "And those results are also going to be misleading because there were really strong partisan differences this year in who wants to cast a ballot through what means."That extends to the Presidential race as well. Kousser says states that process mail-in ballots early, like Florida, could see a large Democratic lead in the first round of numbers released. He says Republicans have traditionally preferred to vote in person.Conversely, Kousser says states like Pennsylvania, where mail-in ballots can't be processed until polls close, may see the opposite.Either way, both Kousser and Crawford say accuracy is the most important focus of election officials."Getting it right is more important than getting it quickly," says Kousser. "And making sure that no one claims a quick victory, when a close margin could be overturned by legitimate votes that have a right to be counted.""We have these local election officials," says Crawford. "They're doing the job. They're doing the work. At a certain point, we just have to remind ourselves of that and have some trust in that." 3236

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) — By Saturday, many businesses will be shutting their doors all over again as San Diego County deals with a new round of restrictions in the purple tier."The overwhelming majority of folks who are doing it right are forced to be punished because of the individuals who choose not to," said Nathan Fletcher, San Diego County Supervisor. "Where we are now in a situation where we're faced with all bad options."The county's public health officer, Dr. Wilma Wooten, recently requested the state reconsider San Diego County's tier placement and keep the county in the red tier. She argued that data from October revealed the county's increased COVID-19 cases are not because of the sectors that would be impacted the most by moving into the purple tier. The request was not approved."We're going to continue to work to do everything we can with the state to have an approach that's right," said Fletcher.He said it's essential that every jurisdiction across the county does what it can to reduce the spread of COVID-19."We have to come together," he said. "There are limits of what the county can do when it comes to enforcement; we really need the help of the law enforcement agencies."But some say this has gone too far. Many business owners are now choosing to defy the orders and stay open to ensure their business survives, and employees still have a job.El Cajon Mayor Bill Wells said he has taken many calls and emails about the struggles business owners face in his jurisdiction.Some say defying the orders and keeping their doors open means keeping food on their family's table. Wells said having police respond to COVID-19 related complaints won't be a top priority."A lot of us believe the government is overreaching in the situation and so, the county, if this is what the county wants to do, then they're going to have to do the enforcement," said Wells.Fletcher said the only way to get back to a sense of normalcy is to understand how serious this pandemic is and tackle the problem together."There is no functioning economy when you get out of control spread of a pandemic," said Fletcher. "So when you have the mayor of a city and jurisdiction say they're going to ignore and defy public health orders, that sends a signal to people that this is not serious and they don't need to worry about it ... That leads to an increase in cases, an increase in deaths, and more closures." 2416

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) -- As the ballot count continues, there’s been an explosion of rumors and misinformation on social media about the integrity of the process.Fact checkers have their hands full with false claims like #Sharpiegate.In this one, people in Arizona’s Maricopa County claimed election workers were up to no good by forcing them to mark ballots with Sharpies, those ballots would be invalid.#Sharpiegate was re-tweeted more than 300,000 times in just a few hours, according to the Election Integrity Project.However, Maricopa County Election officials say Sharpies are absolutely OK.In San Diego County, the Registrar of Voters Office says using a Sharpie will not invalidate a ballot. Even if ink bleeds through, it will not affect ovals on the other side, officials said.John Silva with the News Literacy Project says some of the rumors can be traced to regional differences. Different states have different election laws.“Almost every county, almost every city does things a little bit differently,” he said. “You see something in one part of the country and they're using Sharpies, but where you vote Sharpies are a ‘no no,’ you might interpret that as being something that's wrong even though it's totally right.”In other cases, false information might be spread intentionally for partisan purposes, he said.Silva encourages people to be skeptical of posts with certain key phrases that can be keywords of manipulation like “just let that sink in.”“We don't like this idea of being uncomfortable that there's some big thing that we're not aware of,” he said. “In the discomfort and the anxiety of not knowing, we might accept [the false information].”Other phrases to watch for: “the media won’t cover this” or “they don’t want you to know this.” There are thousands of journalists across the country who have strong incentives to be the first to break big stories -- provided of course that they are true.Another phrase: “let’s make this go viral.” Silva said this one plays into the psychological pressures of FOMO: fear of missing out.“We don't want to get left behind if everybody's following this one thing or believing in this one thing,” he said.Silva said we all need to take ownership of our online activities.“Every time you share or post something on social media, you're putting your reputation on the line,” he said. 2351

来源：资阳报