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SAN DIEGO (KGTV) — There could be as many as 78 million doses of COVID-19 vaccines available by the end of 2020, according to the most optimistic timeline in leaked documents from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.But assuming that the vaccine will require two doses per individual, that figure would only be enough to inoculate the highest priority individuals, based on draft guidelines released this week from the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine.“We’re not even going to get through Phase 1 people” in 2020, said Dr. Mary Barger, an epidemiologist at the University of San Diego.There are an estimated 44 million people in NASEM’S Phase 1 group: frontline healthcare workers, first responders, people with multiple high-risk factors, and adults living in nursing homes and other group settings.Based on leaked CDC guidance to states published by the New York Times, if two vaccine candidates become available in October, there would be enough doses for 39 million people by the end of 2020 -- not quite enough to cover the entire Phase 1 group.If only one vaccine is available by October, the projections suggest there could be enough doses to cover 13 to 26 million people.That might only be enough for frontline healthcare workers and first responders, of which there are an estimated 17 million.Healthcare workers and first responders get the highest priority, which NASEM calls Phase 1a, so they can maintain the integrity of the healthcare system.“When there’s a pandemic, you want to make sure you have enough people to take care of those that are sick,” said Dr. Abisola Olulade of Sharp Rees-Stealy Medical Group.Phase 1b includes individuals with multiple underlying conditions, like cancer, chronic kidney disease, and serious heart conditions.Approximately 75% of adults hospitalized for COVID-19 in the U.S. between March 1 and August 15 had at least two underlying conditions, according to data from the COVID-19 Associated Hospitalization Surveillance Network cited in the NASEM guidelines. More than 60% of hospitalized adults had three or more underlying conditions.“It would make sense that you would include a segment of the population that’s at risk of doing the worst,” said Dr. Peter Chin-Hong, an infectious disease specialist at UC San Francisco.There are an estimated 27 million people in the Phase 1b category.Critical workers in high-risk industries like grocery store clerks, mail carriers, and bus drivers would be in Phase 2, along with teachers, homeless people, prisoners, people with moderately risky underlying conditions, and anyone over the age of 65.“Even though people 65 and older make up less than 20% of the population, there have been 80% of COVID-19 deaths in this age,” Dr. Olulade said.Risk factors including high blood pressure, liver disease, or moderate-to-severe asthma would qualify an individual for Phase 2.There are an estimated 27 million people in this phase.In Phase 3, NASEM recommends inoculating people who are at lower risk of a bad infection but may be vectors for the spread of disease, including young people and children.NASEM noted that it will be “critical to conduct additional trials to gain better understanding of safety and efficacy of COVID-19 vaccine among children before they receive the vaccine.” Currently, there are no COVID vaccine trials that include children.Other essential workers at moderate risk of exposure would also be included in Phase 3, including employees in restaurants, hotels, hair salons, and exercise facilities.Phase 4 includes everyone else. 3589

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) - The San Diego Humane Society launched an investigation into possible animal neglect Monday.  The investigation is focused on the former Carmel Mountain Ranch Country Club.The golf course shut down in July.A spokesman with the Humane Society says someone reported that the declining state of one of the ponds on the course was endangering koi and other wildlife.Homeowners living near the course say they often smell a foul stench coming from the pond.The Humane Society says they’ve they’ve reached out to the owner of the country club and golf course.The Humane Society sent 10News a statement that says in part:"Because it is an open investigation, we cannot discuss details, but we take reports like this very seriously. We encourage anyone who has information relevant to this investigation to come forward and call San Diego Humane Society’s Humane Law Enforcement at 619-299-7012." 934

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) — There's a reason dog-lovers thrive in San Diego.Beaches, dog-friendly restaurants and bars, animal care services. There's plenty to love in SD. And according to a new ranking, others feel the same — at least on a purely analytical basis.Technobark recently ranked San Diego as the seventh best U.S. city for dog owners. Thanks to an abundance of dog parks, dog beaches, and health services, San Diego was hailed as one of the best cities to own a dog.RELATED: See 10News' Pet of the WeekSurprised? You shouldn't be. San Diego ranked as one of the best cities for all pet owners last year, thanks to its abundance of pet businesses, dog-friendly restaurants, and animal shelters, according to WalletHub.The city took a hit in walkability and veterinary costs on that ranking, but made up for it with number of dog parks and pet caretakers.Of course, if you can't find somewhere to walk, you can also take some time to hang out with your dog at a bar or restaurant. Check out some great spots to take your pooch out. 1041

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) - The San Diego County migrant shelter is stepping up protocols Friday after officials announced the number of cases of migrants with flu-like symptoms doubled in 24 hours.A plane full of migrants landed at Lindbergh Field Friday around 1:15 p.m. The concern Friday is the flight may have more sick migrants.Border Patrol officials stated migrants are given a health screening in Texas before they travel to San Diego, and are screened again once they land.County Health officials say when they screened 47 migrants at their downtown shelter, they found 13 migrants with flu-like symptoms. A total of 29 migrants have been diagnosed with the flu since May 19, officials say. Twenty-four migrants are currently quarantined.RELATED: County responds to flu outbreak at shelter, linked to Texas migrants flown to San Diego"This is a new situation to us and I'm told it could get much worse," County Supervisor Dianne Jacob said.Once off the plane, the migrants who crossed illegally in Texas and flown to San Diego are taken to a Border Patrol Facility to be processed by ICE.Eventually, they end up at the shelter. There they get another health screening and starting Thursday, everyone gets a mask and Tamiflu pill as a precaution to keep the sickness from spreading.As of Friday, extra nurses are coming into the shelter to check on the group and ensure no one else has come down with the flu.Those who are diagnosed go with their families to a hotel that has individual air units, so they don't spread the virus. They are educated on why they should stay in the room and, if they leave, what precautions to take so they don't infect others.Migrants in the shelter can come and go as they wish.Border Patrol stated migrants who exhibit flu-like symptoms are not allowed to fly and instead are given medical treatment in Texas. Border Patrol also said agents closely monitor detainees throughout the trip.The state dedicates ,000,000 to migrant shelters, according to County Supervisor Nathan Fletcher's Office. 2037

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) - Thousands of San Diego children returned to classes for the 2018-2019 school year Monday.For the San Diego Unified School District, one of the priorities is pushing a bond measure on the November ballot which earmarks funding for school safety and repairs.“What we've learned since Parkland, since Sandy Hook... we have to take those lessons and put them into action,” said Superintendent Cindy Martin.RELATED: 10News?Back to School SectionAt .5 billion, the bond measure is the largest in the district’s history. It would mean an average property tax increase of 0 a year for homeowners in the area.“It's about school safety and security; it's about the seen and the unseen threats that are across the campuses. we're also talking about the lead in the drinking water,” Martin said.Previous bond money from measures S and Z funded projects like the Academy of Business at Clairemont High School.Micki Payne, whose daughter is starting her freshman year, said she might vote to give schools more money.“We could use that definitely… depends on how they actually spend it,” said Payne. 1116