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BEIJING, Feb. 23 (Xinhua) -- China's central bank on Monday warned of deflation in the near term caused by continuing downward pressure on prices. Commodities prices were low and weak external demand could exacerbate domestic over-capacity, the People's Bank of China (PBOC) said in an assessment of fourth-quarter monetary policy. "Against the backdrop of shrinking general demand, the power to push up prices is weak and that to drive down prices is strong," the PBOC said. "There exists a big risk of deflation." China's consumer price index (CPI), a major gauge of inflation, rose 1 percent in January from a year earlier. In that period, the producer price index (PPI), a measure of inflation at the wholesale level, dropped 3.3 percent. But the PBOC also warned of medium and long-term inflation risks. As the central banks worldwide injected a huge amount of liquidity into the financial system, commodities prices could repeat earlier rallies if market confidence recovered, it said. The PBOC stated that China's economy faced further downside risks because of slackening external demand, over-capacity in some sectors and increases in urban job losses. The gross domestic product expanded at a slower rate of 6.8 percent in the fourth quarter of 2008, as exports slumped and the property sector sagged, dragging down growth for the whole of 2008to a seven-year low of 9 percent But China had huge market potential and as the macro controls started to take effect, its economy was likely to maintain stable and relatively fast growth, it said. To spur growth, the PBOC said it would ensure ample liquidity in the banking system and promote the reasonable and stable growth of credit. It also reaffirmed that China would keep the Renminbi (RMB) exchange rate basically stable, while making it more flexible in a self-initiated, gradual and controllable manner.
BOAO, Hainan, April 18 (Xinhua) -- Much has been talked about signs of recovery in Chinese economy, but little is certain about long-awaited rebound. Discussing the latest development of Chinese economy at the Boao Forum for Asia (BFA), worldwide officials, business executives and professionals remained prudent about China's 8-percent gross domestic product (GDP) target in 2009, but mentioned some favorable changes in the country's economy. Bob Hawke, former prime minister of Australia, forecast China's GDP growth between 7 percent to 8 percent. In the meantime, he believed a reversal had come. "The four-trillion-yuan stimulus (package) is now beginning to work, and China's economy ... has reached the bottom and started to come up now," Hawke told Xinhua at the forum. Increasing stress of sluggish exports, dampened employment and shrinking corporate profits have pulled down the Chinese economy to a growth of 6.8 percent in the fourth quarter last year. A favorable trend might be forming in the first quarter of this year. Ding Lei, president of Shanghai General Motors Corporation Ltd., observed increasing domestic demand for motor vehicles. "Our automobile exports remain low, but auto sales gained 12.9 percent in the first quarter compared with the fourth quarter last year," Ding said. "China's policy package to boost automobile industry has effectively activated domestic market, and boosted the confidence of companies," Ding said. John Cleland, chief executive officer of WestNet Infrastructure Group that has resources products trade with China, also noticed "some increase in demand". "It's very hard to say, but there are signs of recovery of (China's demand for resources products)," he told Xinhua. "Stockpiles of iron ore and steel in China have been reducing, so hopefully some projects that were put on hold have come back in the line," he said. "China will come through (the crisis) quickly. Resource demand will recover. The demand for iron ore and basic commodities will recover quicker than consumer economies," he said. Stable growth can also be expected in infrastructure. As China builds its nationwide mobile network, considerable and stable job opportunities can be created, said Per-Olof Bjork, general manager of Greater China Affairs of Ericsson Group Headquarters. However, the changes are mainly felt in industries covered in the government's stimulus package, and China might need to go through a more painstaking path to ensure healthy and stable economic growth. Chinese economy has shown more optimistic signals in the first quarter, but there are many uncertainties, said Chris Morley, managing director of Nielson China. One uncertainty is the grim global economic climate. The U.S. and European economies are struggling in the crisis, which means China has to seek more internal growth to make up for the loss in exports. The first quarter continued to see a slash in exports, which declined 19.7 percent year on year. Exports used to be one of three major sectors driving the Chinese economy, but it contributed negative 0.2 percent to the country's economic growth in the quarter. Existing problems made it more difficult for Chinese economy to stay away from the impact of global crisis. Yao Gang, vice chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, commented that China's economy is facing a key era that calls for upgrading in development pattern and adjustment of structure. China's mission is not only to maintain stable economic growth, but also handle excess industrial production capacity, expand domestic consumption and reduce income gap, all of which demand sophisticated policies and persistent efforts from the government, Yao said at the BFA annual conference. On April 15, China's Cabinet, the State Council, urged faster implementation of the two batches of government investment, and kicked off the third batch. "Only approximately 30 percent of the scheduled investment has been injected into the Chinese economy," said Edgar Hotard, board chairman of Monitor Group (China). "If the rest 70 percent were also put into the economy, it would bring further growth." Rolf D. Cremer, dean of China Europe International Business School, said China reacted more swiftly and decisively than expected, maintaining a relatively stable growth rate, which allowed more room for adjustment and reform. Chinese economy was still on the growing path, with industrialization and urbanization acting as the two major growth engines, said Long Yongtu, secretary-general of the BFA. "I have always believed that Chinese economy will stop its sliding trend in a comparatively short time and return on the track of stable and rapid development," he said.

BEIJING, April 13 (Xinhua) -- China's Ministry of Finance (MOF) said Monday that fiscal revenue fell 0.3 percent from a year earlier to 440.22 billion yuan (64.43 billion U.S. dollars) in March. First-quarter fiscal revenue fell 8.3 percent to 1.46 trillion yuan, the ministry said on its website, while tax revenue shrank 10.3 percent to 1.3 trillion yuan. Fiscal revenue includes taxes as well as administrative fees and other government income, such as fines and income from government-owned assets. Business profits shrank as economic growth slowed, the MOF said, and tax cuts intended to spur the economy and the financial markets reduced government revenues. First-quarter business income tax revenue fell 16.7 percent. China halved the purchase tax on cars with engine displacements of less than 1.6 liters on Jan. 20, and revenue from that tax was down 7.6 percent in the first quarter. To shore up the stock market, the government cut the share trading stamp tax from 0.3 percent to 0.1 percent last April and scrapped the stamp tax on stock purchases in September. And even though the benchmark Shanghai Composite Index is up more than 35 percent so far this year, the tax cuts on share transactions meant a decline of 86.2 percent in revenue from that category in the first quarter. Actual revenue amounts in each category were not released. Customs tariff revenue fell 23.9 percent during the first quarter, the MOF said, without giving further details. Central government fiscal revenue fell 17.7 percent in the first quarter to 721.3 billion yuan, while local government fiscal revenue rose 3 percent to 742.9 billion yuan. First-quarter fiscal expenditures surged 34.8 percent to 1.28 trillion yuan, as both the central and local governments adopted a proactive fiscal stance to boost the economy and domestic demand. China unveiled a 4-trillion-yuan stimulus package in November to be spent over in next two years, with 1.18 trillion yuan from the central government. Fiscal revenue exceeded 6.13 trillion yuan in 2008, up 19.5 percent.
BEIJING, April 14 (Xinhua) -- China's top political advisor Jia Qinglin on Tuesday called for increased efforts of democratic parties and the All-China Federation of Industry and Commerce to promote the development of a poverty-stricken city in southwest China. Jia, chairman of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC), made the call at a working conference on supporting the construction of Bijie, a city in Guizhou Province. Bijie was approved by the State Council, China's cabinet, in 1988 as a trial zone featuring ecological environment protection and construction, development and poverty-alleviation. Jia said the significant economic and social achievement made in Bijie over the past 20 years exemplifies the enormous advantages of the political system of multi-party cooperation and the political consultation system under the leadership of the Communist Party of China (CPC). Jia outlined three major tasks for Bijie's future development: development and poverty alleviation, ecological construction and population control must be firmly grasped. He also called for efforts to explore new ways to develop the region. Efforts should be made to pursue leap-forward development in both economy and society in the region, he said. In the same meeting, Du Qinglin, head of the United Front Work Department of the CPC Central Committee, said the construction of Bijie trial zone had made significant phase achievements. The region, where the poor once struggled to have adequate food and clothing, was on its way to becoming a place where the people can generally lead a well-off life, he said. Over the past two decades, people from the democratic parties offered enormous support to develop the hilly hinterland region that is home to more than 20 ethnic minorities. They helped to contribute to local education programs, training of migrant workers, building local medical institutions, constructing hydropower stations and helped tackle prevailing ecological problems including desertification. The CPPCC is a patriotic united front organization of the Chinese people, serving as a key mechanism for multi-party cooperation and political consultation under the leadership of the CPC, and a major manifestation of socialist democracy.
HANGZHOU, Feb. 22 (Xinhua) -- Although the world financial crisis has cast a big shadow on China's prosperous eastern coastal regions, companies in these areas are very likely to see the first gleam of economic recovery in 2009, according to experts. Entrepreneurs said their confidence stems mainly from the enlarging domestic markets and increasing demand, which are backed by the government's powerful stimulus package and a series of favorable policies. POSITIVE SIGNS EMERGE Just two months ago, more than 60,000 businessmen in the eastern Zhejiang's Yiwu small ware town -- the world's largest small commodities market -- were tasting bitterness, as they faced declining foreign demand and fewer orders resulting from the global economic downturn. However, the turning point came after the country's traditional Lunar New Year holiday in late January. On the first trading day after the holiday, the commodity hub witnessed 165,000 customers, representing an increase of 10 percent over the same day last year, and the businessmen there were expecting more customers. Compared with the stagnancy of last year, the market regained its vigor as most of the trade dealers came to find business opportunities and increase their orders for commodities. Zhejiang's neighboring Jiangsu Province saw electric consumption surge. It used 443 million kwh of electricity on the first day of February. The figure rose sharply to 680 million kwh nine days later, indicating booming industrial production. DOMESTIC MARKET EXPANDED Confidence of businessmen in Zhejiang's Haining City was also bolstered by booming economic activities and increasing demands from domestic markets. The city is famous for leather industry. "Currently, we are not as worried as we were last year when the economic turmoil spread to every corner of the markets. I am really glad to see that my goods are still welcomed," said Zha Jialin, vice general manager of Haining Leather Town Co. Ye Xuekang, general manager of Haining Jinda New Material Co., also expressed his optimism, saying the company is under normal operation and products orders from domestic customers saw obvious increase. "Some of the production lines have to operate for a full 24 hours to meet the demands," Ye said. "It was the move to shift export destinations from overseas markets to domestic ones that helped us. Although various negative factors including surging prices of crude materials and currency fluctuation have almost strangled the company, the orders from new markets greatly offset the losses in foreign markets," he said. Economists noted that the government's efforts in adding investments, expanding vast domestic markets and increasing consumption are the biggest contributions to the country's economic recovery. In September, the government presented a four-trillion-yuan (about 586 billion U.S. dollars) stimulus plan as part of its efforts to cope with the financial crisis. Adding to the plan were ten industrial revival policies, which were expected to provide several pillar sectors with fund support, tax breaks and other favorable policies. Automobile, shipment and textile industries were among those that befitted. PRUDENT OPTIMISM TOWARD THE RECOVERY Zhuang Jian, a senior economist with the Asia Development Bank, told Xinhua, "The country's economy will gradually recover. However, the process may vary largely from one region to another, depending on economic development degree, enterprise's anti-risk ability, and fortune capacity in different areas." Zhang Hanya, deputy chairman of the Investment Association of China, echoed Zhuang, saying that compared with central and western areas, enterprises and local governments in eastern regions can do a better job. Zhang described their advantage as "natural abilities" -- the coastal areas in eastern China have long been served as the battlefront or the pioneers of the country's economic reforms. "As for the local governments in eastern areas, flexible policies, sufficient capital reserves and fiscal support are the musts to guarantee economic development," he said. Take Shanghai, another important economic engine of China, for example. The city's new Pudong area's car sales rose 15.8 percent in January over the same period last year thanks to a quick respond to the central government's automobile revival plan. However, experts warned against blind optimism about economic recovery, as the global economic situation is still complex and changeable. Zheng Yumin, head of Zhejiang Industrial and Commercial Administration, warned enterprises to cope with the "second-wave" of crisis attack, noting exports were still experiencing a tough time, trade-protectionism sentiments in some countries may make the situation even worse. "After all, we should keep alert," he said.
来源:资阳报