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SAN DIEGO (KGTV) — After the polls close on Election Night, ABC News and the other major networks will start projecting winners and “calling” races, in some cases well before the official vote counts are finalized.They’ll do it by relying on data from a New Jersey-based company called Edison Research.Edison provides exit polls, survey data, and vote counts for ABC, NBC, CBS and CNN. The company has provided data for this group of networks, known as the National Election Pool, since 2004.“We know what we're doing is really, really important,” said the company’s president Larry Rosin.In certain races, networks will project a winner shortly after the polls close, sometimes before state election officials report any official vote totals. Such a projection is nicknamed an “insta-call” in the news business.Networks only make insta-calls in races where Edison’s exit polls and telephone surveys in the days leading up to the election show a decisive winner, Rosin said.ABC News only issues a projection when statistical models overseen by a team of mathematicians and elections experts show a winner with 99.5 percent confidence.Each network has its own team of experts that crunch Edison’s numbers. Fox News makes projections based on data provided by the Associated Press.When a race is close, the network decision teams turn to more complicated math.“It’s a matter of looking at that historical vote all the way down to the precinct or county level and comparing how the vote is coming in, in that state up to that point,” said Rosin.On Election Night, Edison has thousands of employees fanned out in virtually every county across the nation, monitoring the vote count as it comes in and manually reporting the totals when necessary. There are other employees whose job is to check the numbers for accuracy.Edison’s data helps networks understand how preliminary vote totals compare to the way regions voted in the past, which is an important metric in an election forecast.“If every precinct was just a little bit more Republican than it had been four years ago, you have a good sense that all the other precincts that are similar will likely be a little more Republican, and the Republican will do a little better than four years ago,” Rosin said as an example.Using those kinds of trends, the networks then forecast how many ballots are still left to be counted, and what kind of ballots those are -- either in-person early votes, in-person votes on Election Day, or mail-in votes.At that point it comes down to a formula, comparing the known reported votes to the outstanding votes a candidate is likely to gain.“It’s a very high pressure project, but I’m proud to say that no network has made an incorrect call since the 2004 cycle,” which was Edison’s first year providing election data to the networks, Rosin said.The company started doing this after the debacle in 2000, when networks incorrectly called the race in Florida between George W. Bush and Al Gore. Rosin said a lot of things have changed since then.“The pressure to make calls correctly really superseded the pressure to call quickly,” he said.This year could be a challenging one to forecast, Rosin said, with so many more mail-in ballots because of the pandemic. Mail-in ballots take longer to process because election workers have to compare the signature on the mail-in ballot against the signature a voter has on file.For that reason, Rosin said it may take a while for the networks to call races in certain key battleground states that start their counting process late, like Pennsylvania and Michigan. 3594

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) — A second suspect has been arrested in connection with the murder of an 18-year-old in the Midway District last month.San Diego Police say 19-year-old Armando Alvarado, of San Diego, was arrested on Dec. 12 and charged with the murder of Eduardo Salguero. Police said Salguero had set up a meeting over Snapchat to purchase an item on Nov. 25 when the meet up turned into an armed robbery.When Salguero arrived, the two sellers entered his vehicle. One of the suspects pulled out a firearm and multiple gunshots were fired inside the vehicle. The suspects then fled.Officers arrived to find Salguero behind the wheel of a grey Acura that had collided with a retaining wall behind businesses in the 3600 block of Midway Drive. He was suffering from at least one gunshot wound and died from his injuries.On Dec. 2, SDPD officers arrested Angel Garcia, 18, for Salguero's murder as well.Anyone with information about the case is asked to call SDPD's Homicide Unit at 619-531-2293 or Crime Stoppers at 888-580-8477. 1037

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) — A sea lion pup in Encinitas was saved Tuesday from a diver's mask that was tightly wrapped around its neck.The year-old sea lion pup was found at Swami's Beach with a diver's mask wrapped around its neck. The sea lion, which only weighed about 32 pounds, appeared malnourished and dehydrated, according to SeaWorld rescue team members.The mask had been wrapped around the sea lion's neck for weeks, preventing the pup from foraging and eating.RELATED: Sea lion lies down in front of San Diego hotel's sign, refuses to budgeHad the mask remained on the pup, the animal would likely have eventually starved to death or been strangled by the mask, crews said.Rescue team members cut the mask off the sea lion, but found that a wound caused by the mask had become infected. Crews took the pup to SeaWorld’s Animal Health and Rescue Center, where officials treated the sea lion's wound.Officials say other than the wound and undernourishment, the sea lion was in good health. They hope to release the pup back into the wild in the next few months after rehabilitation. 1090

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) -- A San Diego woman who participated in a local coronavirus vaccine trial is sharing her experience.Although it’s a blind study, she says she’s convinced she received the vaccine and she hopes her story will encourage others to get vaccinated.During the summer, American biotech company Moderna began some of its phase three trials in San Diego. Leslie Sullivan was one of those patients.“I put my name in the hat and by the end of July I was in getting my first dose,” she told 10News.The vaccine is given in two doses. “It felt like a flu shot and not much in the way of reaction after the first one,” Sullivan added.She says the second time she received the shot, she felt something. “By midnight I spiked a fever, I had chills, it was exactly like how the flu feels.”A day later, Sullivan was back to normal.Sullivan doesn’t know whether or not she got the vaccine, but says based on the symptoms she experienced, she’s almost positive she didn’t get a placebo. She says some people she’s spoken with mistakenly believe that if she got the actual vaccine, she had COVID-19.“The vaccine does not give you COVID this particular one has no live virus in it at all.”Both the Moderna and Pfizer vaccines use MRNA technology, which relies on messenger RNA to essentially trick the body into making antibodies to fight the virus.At some point Sullivan will find out if she did indeed get the vaccine When a vaccine is made available to the public, those who received a placebo will be notified so they can get vaccinated. 1544

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) - An off-ramp connecting northbound Interstate 5 to westbound I-8 was closed Friday morning as officers reassessed the scene of a crash earlier this week.Just before 2 a.m. Monday, a Volkswagen Jetta was traveling eastbound in the westbound lanes of I-8 from Sunset Cliffs Boulevard, according to California Highway Patrol. The Jetta then entered northbound I-5 in the wrong direction and collided with a Toyota Camry.An SUV then slammed into the rear end of the Camry, CHP said this week. The driver of the Jetta, identified as Justin Callahan, died at the scene. The driver and a passenger in the Camry were injured.RELATED: Family disputes CHP's details of I-5 wrong-way crashBased on that information, however, Callahan's family said the official information doesn't make sense. The 35-year-old's family told 10News Callahan usually drives home from work at the time of the crash and would have been traveling in the opposite direction that CHP officers claim he was traveling."It doesn't make any sense," Callahan's brother, Tommy Villafranca, said.  "Why would he get back on the freeway and get back the opposite direction?"CHP spokesperson Jake Sanchez said it's not unusual for a crash scene to be reassessed in the daylight after a crash at night, but said it's too soon to say anything about what officers may have learned during Friday's investigation of the scene.RELATED: Driver killed, 2 hurt in wrong-way crash on I-5Officer Sanchez said they don't expect to release any new information until next week at the earliest.When asked if the CHP stands by their original report, Officer Sanchez told 10News it is based on the responding officer's preliminary determination at the time, though it's possible a new conclusion could be reached based on new information.A GoFundMe campaign has been established to help pay for arrangements to transport Callahan back to Wheatland, Calif., for a funeral.RELATED: TIMELINE: Wrong-way crashes in San Diego 2054