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SAN DIEGO (KGTV) — The latest ABC News national polling average shows former Vice President Joe Biden leading President Donald Trump by 8 points.But a lot of people are wondering, can we trust the polls after what happened in 2016?The last time Donald Trump was on the ballot in 2016, the polls had him trailing former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton by an average of 3.2 percentage points, and we know what happened.However, pollsters weren’t off by as much as you might think.“At the national level, the polling was, remarkably, given all things, precise,” said Jay Leve, CEO of the polling firm SurveyUSA.Trump lost the popular vote by 2.1 points instead of 3.2, the most accurate these national polls had been in 80 years, according to an analysis by the American Association for Public Opinion Research.Where the polls did miss badly was at the state level, particularly in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, three states that were critical in the Electoral College.Leve said there were several reasons for the polling problems at the state level.“Polling is a very expensive undertaking and so it is not possible for the handful of media organizations with pockets deep enough to afford a public opinion poll to be able to poll in every critical battleground state,” he said.Another reason? “Some of it has to do with what’s called ‘weighting,’” he added.To understand weighting, you have to know the two R’s of a good poll: it needs to be representative and random.Random samples are critical to the accuracy of polling, and you can look to your kitchen for an example why. Picture adding salt to a soup. If you mix it right, you can check the taste with any one spoonful -- you don’t have to eat the entire pot. That’s because each spoonful is a truly random sample.If you don’t mix the salt in, you could easily wind up sampling a part of the soup without any salt.When you’re trying to sample the American public with a political poll, either over the phone or most of the time now online, it’s more challenging to get a perfectly random spoonful.“The challenge is to find the individuals in the right numbers and secure their cooperation. Those two things don’t automatically work in sync,” Leve said. “People don’t want to be disturbed. They want privacy and a pollster by definition is an interruption.”It turns out, certain people tend to resist taking polls, while others are more willing. Research shows people with college degrees are more likely to respond to surveys than high school grads.That means surveys run the risk of not being representative of the voter population at large, and Leve said that kind of imbalance played a big role in 2016.To make a sample representative, pollsters gather up as many responses as they can, then adjust them with a process called weighting -- basically boosting or shrinking responses from people with certain demographics to match census data and the expected turnout.“The weighting criteria that was in issue in 2016 was whether you had enough non-college educated white voters in your sample,” Leve said. “If you did, you got the Trump forecast correct.”State polls that didn’t weight by education level missed badly, because to an extent far greater than in previous elections, voters with a college education broke for Clinton while voters with a high school education backed Trump.There’s some evidence that pollsters have learned from their 2016 mistakes. Polling in the 2018 midterms was very accurate -- a full point better than the average over the last 20 years.So can we trust the polls this time around?Leve says yes, as long as you remember that polls are just a snapshot in time and Donald Trump is difficult to predict.“Don’t be surprised if something happens in the final four, five, six days of the election, right before November 3rd, that’s so unforeseeable that neither you nor I nor anyone watching us could have imagined. And if so, that’s going to throw all the polls off,” he said. 3979

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) -- The City of San Diego is working to transform Little Italy into an outdoor dining experience. They're streamlining the process for shops and restaurants to serve more customers while promoting social distancing under a new outdoor dining and shopping proposal.Marla Encinas had to close her Little Italy clothing boutique, Valmare, for two months. "We tried to do online selling but its definitely not the same," said Encinas. RELATED: Is 'Curbside Gaslamp' a preview of Fifth Ave.'s future?The store is back open now under new rules about cleaning, capacity and social distancing. But, for any business, fewer customers often means less revenue. The city of San Diego is trying to change that. On Thursday, Mayor Kevin Faulconer announced a proposal to waive fees and fast-track the permit process to bring restaurants and shops outdoors. "They’ll be allowed to maximize outdoor space to allow physical distancing and expand the number of customers they can serve," said Faulconer. RELATED: Gaslamp Quarter thoroughfare may become promenadeEncinas says her store is definitely on board. "I think its going to be really cool to be outside in the open air and be able to bring out our business," said Encinas. With approved permits, businesses can set up tables and chairs or racks of clothes and other items on sidewalks, streets, and parking lots. "I would love to do both jewelry and clothing," said Encinas. "I would love to bring out summer stuff because the weather is so nice, people are starting to slowly go out."Last Saturday, Little Italy had their first al-fresco dining event on India Street. By adding retail shops in the mix, more businesses will get a much-needed chance to bounce back from Covid-19. "It's going to be very fun," said Encinas. "You’re going to have a bunch of different vendors, it's going to be different than your typical shopping experience."Businesses can apply for the outdoor dining permits on the city's website. The proposal is going before city council for approval during the first week of July. 2066

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) -- The California Tower at San Diego’s Museum of Man has finally reopened following a months-long upgrade. The tower closed on February 18 of 2019 for a seismic retrofit to protect against earthquakes. The upgrade was done using funds from the City of San Diego and FEMA. It cost ,748,550. "We thank the City of San Diego for their partnership and investment in preserving the California Tower–one of the City’s most iconic cultural landmarks. We look forward to welcoming countless more visitors to experience these one-of-a-kind tours for many years to come,” said Micah Parzen, Chief Executive Officer of the San Diego Museum of Man. RELATED: California Tower at Balboa Park to close for earthquake safety upgradesSince opening to the public, the tower has hosted more than 130,000 visitors from all over the world. Not only is the tower back in business, the Museum of Man is offering a new tour that highlights the histories of San Diego’s diverse communities. The Museum of Man was created for the 1915 Panama-California Exposition and has been a staple in Balboa Park ever since. Click here to buy tickets to the tower. 1154

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) - The Golden State Killer crime spree may have ties to San Diego, according to District Attorney Summer Stephan.Investigators say DNA evidence tied Joseph DeAngelo to the series of killings, rapes and burglaries that occurred between 1976 and 1986 across California.Stephan said Thursday that unsolved cases may be linked to the crimes. 361

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) -- The COVID-19 pandemic has brought uncertainty to school districts across the state. With health conditions changing daily, so does the look of your child's education in the fall.This week an announcement of 100% distance learning from the state's two largest school districts sent some parents into an immediate panic."I was very taken aback," said San Diego mom Leona Smith.How long will classes be virtual? At this point, there's not a clear-cut answer. Parents are left with a lot of questions about how virtual and hybrid programs will impact their kids' education and their family."What are the resources going to be? How is it going to be laid out? What is the time spent? Is it going to be more structured through the distance learning than I felt it had been?" Smith said.Los Angeles Unified and San Diego Unified school districts made their course public, while other districts are still determining what the first day of school will look like, and some already have students back on campus.Statewide, there is no one-size-fits-all answer, but there are requirements districts need to follow."Most parents don't know there is a minutes requirement for each day," said Kevin Gordon with Capitol Advisors Group. "There's actually an annual minutes requirement that we have to hit for kids, and then there's actually a minimum number of days per year that we have to hit – 180 days, generally, and 180 minutes, generally."Gordon said a school day requires a minimum of 180 minutes or three hours of education at lower grade levels and 240 minutes or four hours for high school students.Gordon said those are minimum time standards and most districts exceed that.Reporter Adam Racusin asked him about class sizes."While they are lower than they used to be, they aren't the 20 to 1 that we would like them to be. And in all the upper grades they are absolutely exceeding 30 to 1 in most California classrooms," Gordon said.Imagine the challenge for districts that are bringing students back onto campus while following social distancing guidelines."It's not about cutting class sizes in half, it's like cutting class sizes into thirds," Gordon said.Another area of concern surrounds students who may need more support and instruction than they can get through typical distance learning.In California, once a child is found eligible for special education, the family will participate in the process by attending an individualized education program or IEP. It's both a process and a written document."It becomes almost like a contract and it says here's what the school district is going to do for the student" said special education attorney Timothy Adams."Parents really need the school district to help them, especially in circumstances where the student has really complex needs and requires a variety of in-person, therapeutic services that are delivered usually through their IEP. We need the school districts to implement those services," he explained.Many parents will have to wait for answers, while districts work to make plans flexible enough to adapt to changing community conditions.We reached out to the California Department of Education about guidance for districts regarding hours of learning a day, class sizes, and special education and did not hear back. 3304

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