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SAN DIEGO (KGTV) — The latest ABC News national polling average shows former Vice President Joe Biden leading President Donald Trump by 8 points.But a lot of people are wondering, can we trust the polls after what happened in 2016?The last time Donald Trump was on the ballot in 2016, the polls had him trailing former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton by an average of 3.2 percentage points, and we know what happened.However, pollsters weren’t off by as much as you might think.“At the national level, the polling was, remarkably, given all things, precise,” said Jay Leve, CEO of the polling firm SurveyUSA.Trump lost the popular vote by 2.1 points instead of 3.2, the most accurate these national polls had been in 80 years, according to an analysis by the American Association for Public Opinion Research.Where the polls did miss badly was at the state level, particularly in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, three states that were critical in the Electoral College.Leve said there were several reasons for the polling problems at the state level.“Polling is a very expensive undertaking and so it is not possible for the handful of media organizations with pockets deep enough to afford a public opinion poll to be able to poll in every critical battleground state,” he said.Another reason? “Some of it has to do with what’s called ‘weighting,’” he added.To understand weighting, you have to know the two R’s of a good poll: it needs to be representative and random.Random samples are critical to the accuracy of polling, and you can look to your kitchen for an example why. Picture adding salt to a soup. If you mix it right, you can check the taste with any one spoonful -- you don’t have to eat the entire pot. That’s because each spoonful is a truly random sample.If you don’t mix the salt in, you could easily wind up sampling a part of the soup without any salt.When you’re trying to sample the American public with a political poll, either over the phone or most of the time now online, it’s more challenging to get a perfectly random spoonful.“The challenge is to find the individuals in the right numbers and secure their cooperation. Those two things don’t automatically work in sync,” Leve said. “People don’t want to be disturbed. They want privacy and a pollster by definition is an interruption.”It turns out, certain people tend to resist taking polls, while others are more willing. Research shows people with college degrees are more likely to respond to surveys than high school grads.That means surveys run the risk of not being representative of the voter population at large, and Leve said that kind of imbalance played a big role in 2016.To make a sample representative, pollsters gather up as many responses as they can, then adjust them with a process called weighting -- basically boosting or shrinking responses from people with certain demographics to match census data and the expected turnout.“The weighting criteria that was in issue in 2016 was whether you had enough non-college educated white voters in your sample,” Leve said. “If you did, you got the Trump forecast correct.”State polls that didn’t weight by education level missed badly, because to an extent far greater than in previous elections, voters with a college education broke for Clinton while voters with a high school education backed Trump.There’s some evidence that pollsters have learned from their 2016 mistakes. Polling in the 2018 midterms was very accurate -- a full point better than the average over the last 20 years.So can we trust the polls this time around?Leve says yes, as long as you remember that polls are just a snapshot in time and Donald Trump is difficult to predict.“Don’t be surprised if something happens in the final four, five, six days of the election, right before November 3rd, that’s so unforeseeable that neither you nor I nor anyone watching us could have imagined. And if so, that’s going to throw all the polls off,” he said. 3979

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) -- The June Primary and November general election are fast approaching. Here are some of the important deadlines to keep in mind.According to the Registrar of Voters, Californians have until 11:59 p.m. on the 15th day before the election to register to vote.If you’re requesting a mail-in ballot, the registrar says it must be returned by 8 p.m. on election day.The primary will be held on June 5 followed by the General Election on November 6.Check out the list below for more dates: 509

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) — The fight over the future of short-term vacation rentals in San Diego is now targeting paid signature gatherers hired by the largely Airbnb-funded campaign.The campaign, called "Stand for Jobs, Stop the Vacation Rental Ban," needs to raise about 35,000 signatures to overturn the City Council's recent vote to limit short-term vacation rentals essentially to primary residences. A group of residents called the San Diego Community Working Group on Short-Term Vacation Rentals is now drafting a letter to multiple city officials alleging that the signature gatherers are misleading voters with false information about the regulations. RELATED: Airbnb: San Diego teachers made .7M renting out their home last year"You won't be able to do bed and breakfast, and then there's a huge emphasis on the amount of money on the fee. There is no fee for home sharing," said Gary Wonacott, a member of the group, giving examples of what he's heard.There are now upwards of 200 signature gatherers around San Diego. On Friday, there were five of them spread across the Target shopping center on Sports Arena Boulevard.LaKeisha Weaver says she is being paid more than for every signature she gets. She says she goes from city to city to gather signatures for different issues and is living in a hotel this month to work on the short-term vacation ordinance in San Diego.RELATED: Future of short-term rentals could go to voters"We send rent home, we have children and families, et cetera," she said. "It's just like a traveling position."Weaver says she tries to engage voters with a very brief verbal pitch and has official literature for them to read. But that strategy, employed by many signature gatherers, is leading to the concerns of inaccurate pitches to voters.But it's unclear how common that is. Outside Target, one signature gatherer was calling to people by saying "Good morning, Sir," or "Good morning, ma'am." However, another outside Ralph's made a questionable claim that the ordinance would ban all bed and breakfasts. RELATED: Airbnb ruling could make more homes availableJonah Mechanic, director of Share San Diego, which is involved in the signature campaign, said it is relying on well more than the paid signature gatherers. "There's a lot of local hosts doing events, doing fundraisers where they're gathering signatures, and raising awareness," he said. Weaver said she had about 17 signatures by 1 p.m. Friday. After some time in Sports Arena, she took an Uber to try to get more in Hillcrest.If Airbnb gets the signatures, the City Council would either have to withdraw the restrictions or put them to a public vote.Currently, the city's restrictions on short-term rentals are scheduled to go into effect in July 2019.  2823

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) -- The addition of 536 new homes on a former golf course in Rancho Penasquitos won't clog the one road leading out of the neighborhood in the event of an emergency evacuation, according to a new city study. The city released the environmental impact reporter for Lennar's Juniper proposal on Wednesday. Lennar is proposing to turn the languishing course behind the old Hotel Karlan on Penasquitos Drive into 536 housing units for senior citizens, including 81 affordable. The project also includes a nearly three acre public park, a three-mile trail. The environmental document analyzes impacts such as noise and traffic. It also looked at how the additional homes would impact evacuations in the northeast portion of Rancho Penasquitos, a neighborhood with only one road in and out. The document said there would be a less than significant impact on getting out fast for two reasons - first, a wildfire that starts in the Black Mountain Open Space park to the west would be blown away from the site by Santa Ana winds. Secondly, the site is not prone to wildfire because it is protected by developed terrain. "As part of the EIR, a fire risk analysis determined potential impacts related to wildfire hazards from implementation of the project would be less than significant and the project’s Wildland Fire Evacuation Plan demonstrates that timely evacuation of the site is feasible and would be improved by the additional roadway and emergency egress connections provided by the project," said city spokesman Anthony Santacroce. Additionally, plans call for adding a road into and out of the Juniper complex from Carmel Mountain Road, with emergency access. It would add a traffic light and roundabout to Penasquitos Drive, and improve an emergency access road on the opposite side of the neighborhood. Still, a group of residents is raising concerns that the Juniper project, combined with another potential 350 on the hotel site, would clog the one road leaving the area. Junaid Razvi, who heads the Penasquitos Northeast Action Group, noted Santa Ana winds are unpredictable and has had to evacuate three times in the last 15 years. "To put it mildly, I don't think we're getting the whole picture here," said Razvi. "We are not nimbys. I think the development has to be sensible terms of density, the access, ingress and egress points."Razvi's group said it plans to meet with Councilman Mark Kersey in the next few weeks to air their concerns. In a statement, the councilman said he understands where they are coming from. "Given our region's history, I understand and share residents' concerns about wildfire preparedness," he said. "Nothing is more important to me than public safety, especially when it comes to fire risk, and fire safety will be a primary concern when I evaluate any development proposal that comes before the City Council for approval."San Diegans have until April 6 to submit their comments on the EIR. 2957

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) - The California Highway Patrol said a person arrested at gunpoint on Interstate 15 in San Diego Thursday was suspected of driving illegally in the HOV lane and leading an officer on a pursuit.The chase happened on southbound I-15 just south of Aero Dr. at 5:30 p.m.Officers said the driver was in the high-occupancy vehicle lane and failed to pull over, leading to the brief pursuit.There are no reports of any injuries or a reason why the driver did not yield for the traffic stop.10News is monitoring developments in the story. 555

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