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JINAN, June 29 (Xinhua) -- Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao has encouraged domestic enterprises to make breakthroughs in science and technology development to weather the global financial crisis. Wen made the remarks during his inspection tour in east China's Shandong Province from Saturday to Sunday. It had been the Premier's fourth consecutive weekend inspection tour outside Beijing this month. Wen said the government would continue the current proactive fiscal policy and moderately ease monetary policy and take it a top task to keep a steady economic growth. In JinJing Group, China's first glass-manufacturing company with a history of 105 years, Wen was pleased to see the company had gained steady sales increase with its independently-developed new products amid the global downturn. Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao talks with workers at a workshop of Weiqiao Textile Company Ltd. in east China's Shandong Province. Wen Jiabao made an inspection tour in Shandong from June 27 to June 28 Wen said that technological breakthroughs were fundamental and long-term solutions which should be relied on to fight against the economic downturn. He urged the enterprises in Shandong to provide better environment for young talent to contribute their ability and wisdom to technology development. When inspecting Jigang Group, Wen asked the steelmaker to improve its products' competitiveness by carrying out technological innovation, cutting manufacturing cost and developing energy-efficient products. Wen also visited privately owned Shandong Weiqiao Textile Company, the largest cotton textile enterprise in Asia with more than 150,000 employees. He said China's textile industry, which was strongly affected by export market, had encountered many difficulties caused by the global financial crisis. Wen urged efforts to create an environment of fair competition and fight against monopoly to facilitate the development of private companies. "It is a must to attach importance to the development of private businesses and private fund investment in an effort to deal with the financial crisis and boost economic growth," he said. Wen said coping with the financial crisis and overcoming difficulties in economic development both serve the purpose of improving people's livelihood and better development of individuals. Only when people's lives are improved and secured, will the economic development have a true meaning, Wen said.
BEIJING, May 3 (Xinhua) -- Decoupling from the world, and the economic downturn much of it is experiencing, has proven impossible for China. But its resilience is receiving more recognition, with many leading financial institutions upgrading their 2009 growth forecasts since mid-April. The adjustments for gross domestic product (GDP) growth, ranging from 0.5 to 2.3 percentage points, were based on signs of a turnaround in the first quarter. These indicators included stronger-than-expected real GDP growth, recovering property investment, a pick-up in power consumption and a surge in bank lending. Merrill Lynch & Co. said it expected China's GDP to grow 7.2 percent in the second quarter and 8 percent this year, while Goldman Sachs raised its projection from 6 percent to 8.3 percent, the most optimistic forecast so far. Other forecasts include UBS, which raised its estimate by 0.5 point to 7 percent and CLSA Asia-Pacific, which lifted its outlook by 1.5 point to 7 percent. China's policymakers can take heart from these forecasts. Every upward revision, big or small, given the global economic slowdown, might point to a better chance for the nation to achieve its 8-percent growth target. That level of growth is considered necessary to raise living standards while maintaining social stability. But there's still the question of whether rapid growth is sustainable. Some analysts believe it isn't unless China can rebalance its economy and achieve higher efficiency, lower environmental costs and a more reasonable balance among investment, trade and consumption. QUANTITY OR QUALITY? In an interview with Xinhua, Stephen Roach, chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia, urged Chinese authorities to get more serious about stimulating private consumption because the global economy remains "pretty weak" and might only achieve a weak recovery. "China has responded to the crisis the way it has always responded to global problems. That is, using proactive fiscal stimulus mainly in the infrastructure area to provide temporary support in the downturn until the global economy comes back. It worked in the 1997 Asian financial crisis and the 2000-2001 mild recession. But this is a different sort of problem," said Roach. "Once the stimulus wears off and if there is no follow-through, the Chinese economy will weaken again. I don't think exports will recover in the weak global economy." Domestic economists voice similar worries, saying that the speed of growth doesn't matter as much as the quality. Liu Shangxi, deputy dean of the Research Institute for Fiscal Science at the Ministry of Finance, said that the 6.1-percent year-on-year growth in the first quarter had been "fairly good" for China. But, he said, "sometimes, it's worth slowing down a bit to have the economy move more stably." Wang Xiaoguang, an economist with the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), the chief planning agency. said that the government's annual growth target had become mostly symbolic. For five years in a row, the target was 8 percent, and for five years in a row, the growth rate overshot the target. Wang said the government had faced a dilemma: a cut in the target might undermine public confidence while a rise might tempt local governments to over-invest to meet a high growth target. The turnaround signs mostly reflected the impact of the 4-trillion-yuan (586 billion U.S. dollars) stimulus package. Meanwhile, retail sales still trailed investment in contributing to growth. Local economists warned that the economy remained unbalanced and vulnerable. "Historical records show that adjustments in the Chinese economy would take two to three years, on average. Seven months have passed since the impact of the global financial crisis began to tell on the local economy. "With a turnaround in sight, recovery might come earlier than expected but there are still risks of a further slowdown," Chen Dongqi, deputy chief of the Macro-Economic Research Institute under the NDRC, told a business development forum in Guangdong in late April. BUYING CURE It's widely accepted among economists that China should boost domestic private consumption by leading individuals to buy more and save less. The key question is: how? "Two big programs" Roach advocates call for doubling the investment in social security immediately to 150 billion U.S. dollars and establishing a goal of raising consumption as a share of the economy from 36 percent to 50 percent within five years. "What I think is missing here is the social safety net, social security pension and unemployment insurance. Because of the absence of the safety net, China has seen a high level of precautionary saving," he said. Roach suggested that China develop a private pension system in particular so total employee compensation could rise in tandem with productivity. "Chinese companies need to partner with their workers and provide medical care [and] retirement investing for their workforce. Chinese workers' total pay package should have both wages and benefits," he said. Liu agreed that the primary task in expanding consumption was to raise incomes. "Securing the legitimate interests of workers is particularly significant when the economy slumps. It would be like drinking poison to quench one's thirst if businesses sought to expand corporate earnings at the cost of workers' pay and benefits," he said. Low labor costs and massive capacity have propped up China's prosperity over the past decades. But the proportion of wages to national income has been on a long decline since the 1990s. Between 2002 and 2006 alone, economists estimate the figure dropped from 62.1 percent to 57.1 percent. Meanwhile, the contribution of consumption to GDP growth fell from 43.6 percent to 38.9 percent. "A more meaningful index to judge the sustainability of China's economic growth would be the proportion of wages to national income," Liu said. "If this ratio did not rise, people would remain poor, and thus expanding consumption would be empty talk." Chinese are far from wealthy. Only 4 percent of the workforce, and just 10 percent of the urban workforce, earn more than 2,000 yuan a month, the threshold for individual income tax. As Chinese residents hold 2.43 trillion yuan in aggregate deposits, economists say one immediate way to boost consumption would be to stabilize spending on staple property -- including housing and automobiles -- and support tourism and cultural activities. "People spend much of their money on housing and food. The government should encourage people to entertain themselves more," Wang said. CHINA 'NO LOCOMOTIVE' Although China might be the first major economy to recover from the downturn, economists disagree on when China will return to sustained high growth. Morgan Stanley, for example, has forecast a firm recovery by mid-year, but said sustainable growth through 2010 would still hinge on what happens in other countries. "China will be stronger. But will that strength be enough to allow others to follow in its footsteps? I don't think so," said Roach. "Most of China's resilience comes from infrastructure building, roads, property consumption ... [this] won't have an impact on the United States and Europe. This resilience is only temporary while its stimulus is local rather than global." Central bank governor Zhou Xiaochuan also warned in late April during World Bank-IMF meetings in Washington that the rebound in China's economy had to be consolidated. He said conditions in China would permit rapid economic development again, once macroeconomic policies such as the stimulus plan took effect. Challenging internal and external conditions, he said, included continuously shrinking external demand, a relatively large decline in exports, overcapacity in some industries, falling government revenue and lingering employment pressure. As China emerges from the shadow of the downturn, together with many of its Western partners, the world is closely watching the socialist market economy that it is still trying to develop. It was interesting to see that there was much "the ideologically-constrained West" could learn from China, just as there was much China could learn from the West, said Roach. "China has gone slow in many areas, especially in the opening up of its financial market. But China made the right choice," he said. "Focusing on stability is a huge plus for China. But the nation must be vigilant in its financial policies, especially monetary and regulatory policies, and not allow asset bubbles and financial innovations it doesn't understand," said Roach.
ANSHAN, Liaoning, June 16 (Xinhua) -- An official with the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) said Tuesday that the proposed alliance of Rio Tinto and BHP Billiton had a "strong monopolistic color" and Chinese firms would watch it closely and find ways to cope with it. Last year, China imported 440 million tonnes of iron ore, half of the world's total, so any slight market changes would affect Chinese steel makers. China's anti-monopoly law should apply in the proposed deal, said Chen Yanhai, head of the raw material department of MIIT at an industry meeting held in the northeastern city of Anshan, Liaoning Province. If the tie-up proved to be monopolistic, "we have to seek new policies and regulations to allow Chinese companies have a bigger say in iron ore pricing," said Chen without elaborating. Rio Tinto scrapped a proposed 19.5-billion-U.S.-dollar investment by Aluminum Corp. of China, or Chinalco, on June 5, and turned to rival BHP Billiton, which would pay Rio Tinto 5.8 billion U.S. dollars to set up a joint venture to run the iron ore resources of both companies in west Australia. On Monday, spokesman of the Ministry of Commerce Yao Jian said if the revenue of the joint venture reached "a certain amount," China's anti-monopoly law would apply. That law requires a company to get government approval before consolidation if its global revenue exceeds 10 billion yuan (1.47 billion U.S. dollars) and its revenue in China exceeds 2 billion yuan. An anti-monopoly review is also necessary if two or more parties in the company had more than 400 million yuan of revenue in China in the previous fiscal year. In the year ended 30 June, BHP Billiton's revenue in China was 11.7 billion U.S. dollars, while that for Rio Tinto was 10.8 billion U.S. dollars, according to the companies' websites. It was unclear what actions China would take if the case was determined to be covered by the Chinese anti-monopoly law. At the meeting Tuesday, Chen also said domestic steel makers should beef up technology and innovation to cut energy consumption and raise efficiency. Also, he said, China "should increase exploration of domestic mines to reduce reliance on imports."
BEIJING, May 1 (Xinhua) -- New rules to punish "statistical fouls" took effect Friday in China. The rules, the country's first of their kind, were jointly published by the Ministry of Supervision, Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security and the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). The rules impose penalties for publication of fraudulent statistics or unauthorized dissemination of statistical data. Penalties including dismissal, demotion or unspecified "criminal punishment" face those who unlawfully alter statistics or ask others to do so and those who take revenge on people who refuse to fabricate data or blow the whistle on illegal acts. People who leak data concerning state secrets, personal information or business secrets, or who delay the reporting of statistics, would face similar penalties. The new rules require government offices to carefully maintain and deliver files of criminal cases and quickly release investigation results. Analysts said statistics are not just key data for the government, they are also vital in making decisions about social and economic affairs. Statistics "concern public credibility of both statistical authorities and the government," said Fan Jianping, chief economist with the State Information Center. As the world's fastest expanding economy, China has faced questions about the accuracy of its national economic data. The most recent figure drawing global attention was the decade-low, 6.1 percent year-on-year economic growth rate in the first quarter, which was released April 16. Since the country's opening-up, the quality of statistics has improved. An article on the Wall Street Journal China's website said China's economic statistics were actually very impressive, "with relatively timely, accurate, and comprehensive data published on a range of key indicators". But it also pointed out that there is a political economy of numbers with an incentive at both the local and national levels to massage the statistics. Many China watchers have noted the incentives for local officials to over-report growth to please their political masters. Officials who participated in drafting the new rules admitted that incorrect or falsified statistics have been released at times. Statistical corruption has been found in China for years to exaggerate local economic growth, which is often related to officials' promotion. In April, southeastern Fujian Province said that it handled 754cases concerning forged statistics last year and imposed fines up to about 1.38 million yuan (203,000 U.S. dollars). "As the country strives to cushion the impact of the global slowdown and maintain steady economic growth, they should use the rules as a deterrent to statistical fouls," said Wang Tongsan, an economist with the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, a government think tank. Wang also suggested the government should reform the evaluation system for officials and increase training for statistical staff. China's top statistics official, Ma Jiantang, has vowed to improve the quality and credibility of government statistics after foreign media voiced concerns about the authenticity of Chinese economic data. "To keep (official statistics) true and credible is not only our duty, it also relates to our need to accept public supervision," Ma said in a statement on the NBS website.
BEIJING, May 18 (Xinhua) -- Chinese top leaders met Monday individual delegates from across the country who were awarded honors in Beijing for their dedication to public order. President Hu Jintao, Premier Wen Jiabao, Vice President Xi Jinping, and Zhou Yongkang, chief of the Central Political and Legislative Affairs Committee of the Communist Party of China (CPC), attended the meeting held at the Great Hall of the People. The leaders are all members of the Standing Committee of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee. Zhou said at an awarding ceremony after the meeting that local governments had put great endeavor to maintaining stable social order and public security. He urged Party organs at all levels to take the initiative of blending comprehensive control of social public security with overall economic and social development. The senior official asked local governments to improve their capability of handling public security emergencies and actively prevent potential social conflicts. The Chinese government has carried out a strategy to maintain social order and public security by involving volunteers and Party members in enterprises, offices, universities and even the retirees to help the police authorities with information and supervision on minor conflicts and suspected crimes. At the awarding ceremony which was also viewed nationally by a tele-conference system, outstanding individuals and organizations were given honors for their endeavor and dedication to the country's smooth social order. Zhou encouraged the honored individuals and institutions to have more innovative ideas and methods to promote the overall control of social order. Chinese President Hu Jintao (R, front) meets Monday individual delegates from across the country who were awarded honors in Beijing for their dedication to public order. He stressed that local governments should enhance and expand the grassroots network of the social order's maintaining units and take the advantage of the public's power and wisdom. The local authorities should also pay more attention to educational work and prevention measures in addition to fighting and punishing criminals. By continuing preventative efforts to maintain public security, the governments should improve their abilities of social management and public service, Zhou added.