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On their surface, a lot polls got the 2016 election wrong. As late as October 23, 2016, an ABC News poll had Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump by 12%.But pollsters say that polls like the one conducted by ABC News do not even tell the whole story.“National polls are very helpful in giving us a sense of who might win the popular vote. In that regard, 2016 polls were relatively accurate,” said Emily Goodman is a principal at EMC Research, a nationwide polling firm.Hilary Clinton won the popular vote by about 2.8 million votes or 2%. In the last week of the election, many polls had tightened to have Clinton winning by about 2 to 5 percent. Goodman says a lot of people don’t understand polls.“One of the most important things to know about polls is that, they’re just a point in time, it’s a snapshot,” she said. There are a few key things you should look for when it comes to polling, the first being you don’t win the presidency by winning the popular vote.“The path to the presidency is by winning 270 Electoral College votes and that is why the state by state polling is incredibly important,” said Goodman. So nationwide polling won’t tell you who will win. Instead, state by state polling is more helpful.There’s also a few other things you should look for if you see a poll on the news, social media or other places.“The first is timeline, when was it conducted? Are you looking at a poll that was very recent, or a poll that was conducted months ago? Who the poll is conducted among. So are you looking at a poll of adults, are you looking at a poll of registered voters, of likely voters, or some other subset of the population? The sample size, that is, how many people were actually included in the poll? That ultimately tells you what the margin of error is. How the poll was conducted, what was the methodology? Was it conducted on telephone and did those phones include landlines and cellphones? Was it conducted online, over text?” Goodman explains. One key thing there, how polling respondents are reached, and it’s one thing that a pollster who got the 2016 election right says is key.“I don’t want the public face, I want what you really think because your real opinions are what go in that voting booth with you, when nobody is looking," said Robert Cahaly, the lead pollster for the Trafalgar Group,In 2016, Trafalgar projected Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Florida for Donald Trump. He says in 2016, there was a group of hidden Trump supporters. He said it’s a result of what’s called the Social Desirability Bias.“When you speak to a live person on the phone, you tend, especially when you know they know who you are, you tend to give an answer to a question that you think will make you look best in the mind of the person you’re talking to versus your true feeling,” he said. Cahaley says to some people, being seen as a Trump supporter is so undesirable, they won’t tell the truth to people conducting polls on the phone. He’s seeing the same exact thing in 2020 he saw in 2016 and that traditional polling may not be accounting for this.However, Goodman says that the industry is expanding how to reach respondents.“What used to be the gold standard of telephone surveys, exclusively landlines, is no longer appropriate. Cellphones, but beyond just having someone just call up a voter on your cellphone, we’re also now including texting, emailing, that includes a link to take a survey online and using a mix of those methodologies really helps get a representative sample of likely voters,”Both pollsters do agree on one thing however, this election will come down to turn out.“A lot of this is really going to come down to turn out,” said Goodman. “This thing has never been a persuasion election, I’ve said that from the beginning, it’s a motivational election. Whichever side turns out their people is going to win this race, and it’s that simple,” said Cahaley. 3923

OMAHA, Nebraska — Just before 5 p.m local time Monday, Omaha Police were called to the scene of a traffic incident involving a school bus near an intersection in North Omaha. Police later confirmed the boy, 8-year-old Haji Mohamed of Omaha, had died. According to a report from OPD received Monday night, "the investigation revealed that a Student Transportation of America school bus had come to a stop along Sprague Street just east of 22nd Street at a designated student drop off location."After several students disembarked the bus, the bus driver continued her route westbound on Sprague Street," the report states. "As the bus was traveling between 22nd Street and 23rd Street, an 8-year old male child who had just disembarked the bus, attempted to run across Sprague Street from north to south. As soon as the child entered the roadway, he was struck by the bus."The boy was transported by emergency personnel to Nebraska Medicine in extremely critical condition. Shortly after arriving at the hospital, the boy was pronounced dead, the OPD release states.  Early OPD reports indicated the elementary-aged boy was transported with "extremely critical injuries" to Nebraska Medicine, said Sgt. Chuck Casey of the OPD incident unit, who gave an update near the scene. Omaha Public Schools later confirmed in a statement that the injured boy is a second-grader from Springville?Elementary School, located near 60th and Girard streets, about five miles northwest of the incident.The boy's family was with him at the hospital, Casey said.Early reports indicated the boy was struck by the front of the bus — the only vehicle involved in the incident — but the scene will be under investigation for some time, he said."At this time, Omaha Public Schools administrators, Student Transportation of America and OPS Student Transportation are cooperating with the Omaha Police Department as they investigate the incident," according to a statement from OPS early Monday evening. "Administrators are also supporting and working with the family of the student."Casey said initial reports were that the boy was a passenger on the bus. Other OPS students riding the bus were picked up by a second bus and taken to their destinations, he said.No other injuries were reported at the scene, he said.Watch KMTV station's livestream from the scene earlier today: 2458

OAKLAND, Calif. (AP) — Facebook is tightening its policy against QAnon, the baseless conspiracy theory QAnon, which paints President Donald Trump as a secret warrior against a supposed child-trafficking ring run by celebrities and government officials."Starting today, we will remove any Facebook Pages, Groups and Instagram accounts representing QAnon, even if they contain no violent content," a blog post from the company stated on Tuesday. The move comes less than two months after Facebook said it would stop promoting the group and its adherents — but faltered with spotty enforcement. Facebook said since they stepped up these measures in August, they have removed more than 1,500 pages and groups for QAnon containing discussions of potential violence and more than 6,500 pages and groups connected with militarized social movements.Facebook said Tuesday that it will remove Facebook pages, groups and Instagram accounts for “representing QAnon.”"Pages, Groups and Instagram accounts that represent an identified Militarized Social Movement are already prohibited. And we will continue to disable the profiles of admins who manage Pages and Groups removed for violating this policy, as we began doing in August," the company stated. The company said it is starting to enforce the policy as of Tuesday but cautioned that it “will take time and will continue in the coming days and weeks.”"Our Dangerous Organizations Operations team will continue to enforce this policy and proactively detect content for removal instead of relying on user reports. These are specialists who study and respond to new evolutions in violating content from this movement and their internal detection has provided better leads in identifying new evolutions in violating content than sifting through user reports," Facebook said.The company also said they expect renewed attempts to evade detection and they will change their policy and enforcement "as necessary."QAnon began a few years ago as a single conspiracy theory. It has grown in both followers and beliefs since then.The main conspiracy claims dozens of politicians and A-list celebrities work with governments around the world to engage in child sex abuse. Followers also believe there is a “deep state” effort to kill President Donald Trump.Shared conspiracies of the group now include baseless theories on mass shootings and elections. 2392

OAKLAND, Calif. — A bust of Breonna Taylor was vandalized in Oakland, California.The Oakland Police Department is investigating after large pieces of the statue were found broken off sometime over the weekend, KGO and KTVU report.The sculpture was made by artist Lee Carson to honor the 26-year-old EMT who was shot and killed in her apartment by Louisville police officers in March. The deaths of Taylor, George Floyd and Ahmaud Arbery prompted countless people across the country to take to the streets over the summer to protest police violence against people of color.Carson told KTVU that he hoped the piece would energize the Black Lives Matter movement, which seeks to eradicate white supremacy and intervene in violence inflicted on Black communities.Carson told KGO that the vandalism felt like an attack on Taylor and those fighting against racial injustice.The statue is made of clay, concrete, wood and foam, and was reportedly installed in the downtown area this month. Along with a bust of Taylor, it includes the words “say her name Breonna Taylor,” which has become a rallying cry.Carson told KGO that he intends to repair the statue as soon as possible and he may cast it in bronze this time. 1217

One of Defense Secretary James Mattis' most senior civilian advisers is being investigated by the Defense Department Office of Inspector General for allegedly retaliating against staff members after she used some of them to conduct her personal errands and business matters, according to four sources familiar with the probe.Dana White, the Trump administration political appointee who serves as the Pentagon's chief spokeswoman, has been under investigation for several weeks after multiple complaints were filed against her.White is alleged to have misused support staff, asking them, among other things, to fetch her drycleaning, run to the pharmacy for her and work on her mortgage paperwork. Staffers also charge that she inappropriately transferred personnel after they filed complaints about her. 811

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