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When experts look at the economy and its rebound, they go through an alphabet soup of letters, with a “V” shape recovery being the best-case scenario. It’s a fast decline with a fast recovery. Letters like “W” or “L” mean a much slower and painful path forward.A resurgence of more COVID-19 cases is shifting the likely shape of our economic recovery, and having economists evaluate the likelihood of a recovery in the shape of the more dreaded letters.“The fact that the virus has increased in a number of states shows that it is still very much a threat not only to one’s health but the economy,” said Michelle Meyer, who heads U.S. Economics at Bank of America. “The initial stage of the recovery was quite robust. It felt quite ‘V’ like, the economy was digging its way out of what was a very deep hole.”According to Bank of America, about a third of the jobs lost during the pandemic have been recovered. However, the recovery has slowed down into more of a “U” shape, and now data is showing a stall with concern of a higher chance of a “W” or “L” shape recovery.“The ‘W’ trajectory would be the worst-case scenario. That would show real fragility on the economy if we dipped back into a recession,” added Meyer.Experts say it would lead even higher unemployment, and more permanent job loss and business closures. In addition, to come out of a “W” or “L” shape recovery, we would need even more stimulus money from the federal government, which may not even improve the economic downturn as much as it did the first time.“Stimulus in Washington provides a really nice band-aid and I think it helped tremendously in the first stage of this recovery but at the end of the day, we need the economy to fundamentally improve,” said Meyer.The good news is unless there is a significant or full shutdown again, a “W” shape recovery is still less likely to occur than a “U” shape.“Our analysis projects that a 'U' shape recovery with rather steep losses and growth this year and rather flat next year and then recovering subsequently is the most likely outcome,” said David Turkington, the Senior Vice President at State Street Associates.A recent State Street study based on 100 years of historical data shows that the U.S. still has 30.1% chance of a “U” recovery, and a combined 24.4% chance of a “W” or “L” shape recovery which include stagflation and depression outcomes.“The real economy I think is what determines the recovery and how that plays forward,” said Turkington.The real economy is jobs, businesses and consumer spending. Providing stability there could determine which way the economy goes. 2615

White House officials said Monday that the Trump administration is pursuing another legislative push on immigration, but when pressed said the effort would largely be the same as it has been trying unsuccessfully since last fall.The comments came in a call on Monday with reporters organized to back up a string of tweets from President Donald Trump over the weekend and into Monday pushing a hard line on immigration, sounding off on the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals policy, illegal immigration and Mexico.The call, held on the condition the speakers not be quoted by name, largely re-hashed the administration's talking points on immigration, calling provisions of US and international immigration law "loopholes" that human smugglers misconstrue to encourage would-be migrants to make the journey to the US. 838

While kids are on summer break, districts across the country are working to determine whether or not to reopen schools, and how to do it safely.School leaders are racing the clock to figure out what the next school year will look like.“We’ve been looking at how can we provide a high quality education in this environment,” said Lisa Yates, Superintendent at Buena Vista School District.For Yates, that decision is simple.“We’re hearing that from families, we’re hearing that from students, we want to be back in school,” she said.At Buena Vista Middle and High School in the Colorado mountains, summer school is in session at their brand new, still under construction, building. Students and teachers are piloting a new platform that leaders hope will help come fall.The platform was installed in early June and created by tech company Wolk. It works like this -- first, gateways are installed in classroom ceilings.“The system is called Open,” said Rene Otto, Solutions Architect for Wolk.com.Next, students and teachers put on a wearable device at the beginning of the school day. “They’re given these safety cards or wristbands, so what these do is they act as beacons,” she explained.The devices currently use Bluetooth to communicate. Using the gateways, the software shows when a beacon comes within a certain amount of space of another beacon, for how long, and if the beacon moves rooms.“The point of it was to help people understand where they are in a physical space, so we can figure out if safe social distancing is being practiced,” Otto said.The school district’s technology coordinator, Matt Brooker, helped install the system. “If we did have an incident where a kid is positive, could we do contact tracing with this?” he said.For students, the idea seems simple enough.“It’s going to record where you walk and how close you get to other people,” 6th grade Aidan explained. “It’s like wearing a little necklace. It doesn’t really bother me that much.” Others weren’t as convinced. “Personally, I don’t know if a lot of people are going to want to wear them,” 10th grader Taylor said.With every tracking device comes concerns over data and privacy.“It took me a little bit,” said Reba Jackson, a teacher at the school. “I’m a little paranoid about tracking things.”“I went from feeling like it might be a little bit invasive,” teacher Robin Fritsch, explained. “It’s not a big deal. If it gives us valuable data, I’m in.”Otto said not to worry.“We really want to make sure privacy is protected. So the way it works is, only the administrators of the schools have access to the identifying information,” she explained. In other words, each tracker has a number as the identifying name. Only school admin members are able to match that number with a student. “I don’t think any parents or people want to be tracked by a technology company generally. But if that information can help make people safer, I think it’s valuable.”Otto said for the system to work fully, they need at least 60% of students and teachers using it. This helps find hot spots that potentially need more cleaning or more attention to create a better socially distanced space.“I think it’s going to be a valuable tool,” Fritsch said.As students come back, the hope is that the system will help identify who has come into contact with someone who tested positive for COVID-19, and stop the spread there. This could mean the difference between sending 10 kids home and sending the entire school home in the event of a positive case.“Typically rural communities, as far as economic development, don’t have the resources the major metropolitan areas might have,” said Wendell Pryor, Director of Chaffee County Economic Development Corporation. “So any tool like this that aids in the threat of an outbreak and the way it might spread, I think is going to be a bonus to everybody involved.”“In person is where we want to be, so we’re putting our resources there,” Superintendent Yates said. 3979

Winston Groom, the author of the novel “Forrest Gump” that was made into a six-Oscar winning 1994 movie that became a pop cultural phenomenon, has died.His death was confirmed Thursday night by Alabama Gov. Kay Ivey and the mayor of Fairhope, Alabama, where Groom lived.Mayor Karin Wilson of Fairhope wrote on Facebook that she was saddened by the death of Groom, saying an “iconic author" had been lost.Forrest Gump″ became winner of best picture Oscar and five other Academy Awards and included such stars as Tom Hanks. A local funeral home told The Associated Press that funeral arrangements were pending."Saddened to learn that Alabama has lost one of our most gifted writers. While he will be remembered for creating Forrest Gump, Winston Groom was a talented journalist & noted author of American history. Our hearts & prayers are extended to his family," Ivey said. 888

We've all heard exercise helps you live longer. But a new study goes one step further, finding that a sedentary lifestyle is worse for your health than smoking, diabetes and heart disease.Dr. Wael Jaber, a cardiologist at the Cleveland Clinic and senior author of the study, called the results "extremely surprising.""Being unfit on a treadmill or in an exercise stress test has a worse prognosis, as far as death, than being hypertensive, being diabetic or being a current smoker," Jaber told CNN. "We've never seen something as pronounced as this and as objective as this."Jaber said researchers must now convey the risks to the general population that "being unfit should be considered as strong of a risk factor as hypertension, diabetes and smoking -- if not stronger than all of them." 799

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