濮阳东方医院男科割包皮很靠谱濮阳东方医院看男科病非常便宜,濮阳东方妇科收费不高,濮阳东方男科口碑好吗,濮阳东方男科医院割包皮手术贵不贵,濮阳东方医院治早泄评价很好,濮阳东方医院收费高不高,濮阳东方男科医院割包皮手术安全

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) — The latest ABC News national polling average shows former Vice President Joe Biden leading President Donald Trump by 8 points.But a lot of people are wondering, can we trust the polls after what happened in 2016?The last time Donald Trump was on the ballot in 2016, the polls had him trailing former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton by an average of 3.2 percentage points, and we know what happened.However, pollsters weren’t off by as much as you might think.“At the national level, the polling was, remarkably, given all things, precise,” said Jay Leve, CEO of the polling firm SurveyUSA.Trump lost the popular vote by 2.1 points instead of 3.2, the most accurate these national polls had been in 80 years, according to an analysis by the American Association for Public Opinion Research.Where the polls did miss badly was at the state level, particularly in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, three states that were critical in the Electoral College.Leve said there were several reasons for the polling problems at the state level.“Polling is a very expensive undertaking and so it is not possible for the handful of media organizations with pockets deep enough to afford a public opinion poll to be able to poll in every critical battleground state,” he said.Another reason? “Some of it has to do with what’s called ‘weighting,’” he added.To understand weighting, you have to know the two R’s of a good poll: it needs to be representative and random.Random samples are critical to the accuracy of polling, and you can look to your kitchen for an example why. Picture adding salt to a soup. If you mix it right, you can check the taste with any one spoonful -- you don’t have to eat the entire pot. That’s because each spoonful is a truly random sample.If you don’t mix the salt in, you could easily wind up sampling a part of the soup without any salt.When you’re trying to sample the American public with a political poll, either over the phone or most of the time now online, it’s more challenging to get a perfectly random spoonful.“The challenge is to find the individuals in the right numbers and secure their cooperation. Those two things don’t automatically work in sync,” Leve said. “People don’t want to be disturbed. They want privacy and a pollster by definition is an interruption.”It turns out, certain people tend to resist taking polls, while others are more willing. Research shows people with college degrees are more likely to respond to surveys than high school grads.That means surveys run the risk of not being representative of the voter population at large, and Leve said that kind of imbalance played a big role in 2016.To make a sample representative, pollsters gather up as many responses as they can, then adjust them with a process called weighting -- basically boosting or shrinking responses from people with certain demographics to match census data and the expected turnout.“The weighting criteria that was in issue in 2016 was whether you had enough non-college educated white voters in your sample,” Leve said. “If you did, you got the Trump forecast correct.”State polls that didn’t weight by education level missed badly, because to an extent far greater than in previous elections, voters with a college education broke for Clinton while voters with a high school education backed Trump.There’s some evidence that pollsters have learned from their 2016 mistakes. Polling in the 2018 midterms was very accurate -- a full point better than the average over the last 20 years.So can we trust the polls this time around?Leve says yes, as long as you remember that polls are just a snapshot in time and Donald Trump is difficult to predict.“Don’t be surprised if something happens in the final four, five, six days of the election, right before November 3rd, that’s so unforeseeable that neither you nor I nor anyone watching us could have imagined. And if so, that’s going to throw all the polls off,” he said. 3979

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) — The month of love is upon us, which means couples planning to tie the knot on Valentine's Day don't have long to request a ceremony with the county.The San Diego County Clerk’s office is accepting appointments for couples wanting to renew their vows or get married on Feb. 14."We are excited to offer walk-in services at our historic downtown office on the waterfront for Valentine’s Day and don’t want couples to miss their chance at a Valentine’s Day wedding," said County Clerk Ernie Dronenburg. The downtown office (at 1600 Pacific Highway, Suite 273) will be open from 8 a.m. to 5 p.m. for marriage licenses and ceremony appointments. Ceremonies can be performed at Waterfront Park or inside at ceremony rooks overlooking the bay.The County Clerk accepts walk-in services at its downtown location only and appointments are required at Chula Vista, San Marcos, and Santee offices.Non-confidential marriage licenses cost and an additional if a couple would like their ceremony to be performed by city staff in English or Spanish.Appointments can be made online at County Clerk's website or by phone at 619-237-0502. 1153

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) - The Food and Drug Administration has recalled several types of tattoo ink after determining they were contaminated with bacteria. One of them is the popular black ink made by Dynamic Color. The FDA found that two of their lots tested positive for microorganisms. The recall includes all bottles of Scalpaink SC, Scalpaink PA, and Scalpaink AL basic black tattoo inks manufactured by Scalp Aesthetics. One lot of Color Art’s red Solid Ink-Diablo was also included. Tattoo shops across the country were contacted through their local health departments about the recall. One of the largest tattoo parlors in San Diego, SD Tattoo, says they got the email Wednesday morning and immediately searched through their inks.They did have the Dynamic black ink, but tattoo artist Nicki Ninteman said, "We checked all the lot numbers and all of ours are clean, so we’re good."She said they didn't have either of the other two brands in the shop.According to the FDA, people who have been tattooed with contaminated ink can experience rashes or lesions of red papules. If untreated, contaminated ink can also cause permanent scarring. For more information one the FDA recall, visit their website. 1209

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) — The escalation in Iran is stirring up terrifying memories for the family of a San Diego man, held there for more than a year during one of the most intense hostage standoffs in history."I was trying to get information. All I had heard from the State Department was that the embassy had been overrun," said Dotty Morefield, whose husband, Richard, was one of 52 people taken hostage in Iran in November 1979. "I picked up the phone and thought if anyone was going to know it would be the news agency, and Brad picked up."It's been more than 40 years since Morefield picked up the phone and called 10News for the first time. 10News assignment editor Brad McLellan picked up the phone."Mrs. Morefield told me her husband had just been taken hostage in Iran and I was shocked. I didn't know what to say," McLellan recalls. "I kept looking up information for her as it came over the wire service and would always call her."RELATED: Pentagon: Iranian missiles attack 2 Iraqi airbases that house US troopsMorefield's husband was a high-ranking diplomat at the time when Iranian students protesting outside the U.S. Embassy in Tehran took over. For more than 400 days after that, it became her mission to keep her husband's name relevant."It's a kind of fear where you can't function, you're just sitting by the phone waiting," Morefield said. "I have to face the fears. The uncertainties and the worries. It kept me very busy and it kept me informed."Day in and day out, Morefield made sure the hostages were kept in the spotlight. Finally after 444 days, the hostages were released."I was just I was beyond excited," Morefield said. And here, Morefield and her kids — and a sea of supporters — celebrated her husband's return."He was stunned," Morefield said. "There were people from Lindbergh Field to the townhouse I was renting in Tierrasanta. There were people the whole way, waving to us and they were so happy to see him."RELATED: San Diego military bases tighten security amid rising tensions with IranBut for 30 years after his release, until his death in 2010, Morefield's husband never fully recovered."He never slept through a night. Never," Morefield said. "He would wake up afraid, startled. He hated to have a door shut."Morefield now lives in North Carolina. Her lawyer says each hostage was promised .4 million, or 0,000 for a spouse or child, but to this day they're still waiting. He said so far the hostages have only been awarded about 16 percent of the amount they were promised."I don't understand the hold up," Morefield says. 2577

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) - Super Saturday is set to eclipse Black Friday in sheer numbers, according to the National Retail Federation. The NRF says an "estimated 147.8 million U.S. consumers [are] expected to participate, up from 134.3 million last year, according to the annual survey released today."This includes both in-store and online shopping.This year had the shortest shopping window between Thanksgiving and Christmas, leaving shoppers nervous.Jessica Ramirez said she was so busy working she could only start shopping Saturday. She said the family had been to a few stores that day and she will get as much done as possible in the final countdown before Christmas.Dana Giusti was eating a candy cane while she shopped in Best Buy, saying her sugar fix was staving off anxiety about finishing up Christmas shopping and wrapping all the presents for her family.In Mission Valley, the Target parking lot was filled with lines of cars. Families had different plans of attack to tackle their lists. Some shopped online and picked up curbside, while others braved the crowds inside."NRF defines the holiday season as November 1 through December 31 and has forecast that sales will total between 7.9 and 0.7 billion. Consumers expect to spend an average ,047.83 – including purchases made earlier – for an increase of 4 percent over last year, according to an earlier NRF survey.Today’s survey of 7,779 adult consumers was conducted November 27 through December 5 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 1.2 percentage points." 1543