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When experts look at the economy and its rebound, they go through an alphabet soup of letters, with a “V” shape recovery being the best-case scenario. It’s a fast decline with a fast recovery. Letters like “W” or “L” mean a much slower and painful path forward.A resurgence of more COVID-19 cases is shifting the likely shape of our economic recovery, and having economists evaluate the likelihood of a recovery in the shape of the more dreaded letters.“The fact that the virus has increased in a number of states shows that it is still very much a threat not only to one’s health but the economy,” said Michelle Meyer, who heads U.S. Economics at Bank of America. “The initial stage of the recovery was quite robust. It felt quite ‘V’ like, the economy was digging its way out of what was a very deep hole.”According to Bank of America, about a third of the jobs lost during the pandemic have been recovered. However, the recovery has slowed down into more of a “U” shape, and now data is showing a stall with concern of a higher chance of a “W” or “L” shape recovery.“The ‘W’ trajectory would be the worst-case scenario. That would show real fragility on the economy if we dipped back into a recession,” added Meyer.Experts say it would lead even higher unemployment, and more permanent job loss and business closures. In addition, to come out of a “W” or “L” shape recovery, we would need even more stimulus money from the federal government, which may not even improve the economic downturn as much as it did the first time.“Stimulus in Washington provides a really nice band-aid and I think it helped tremendously in the first stage of this recovery but at the end of the day, we need the economy to fundamentally improve,” said Meyer.The good news is unless there is a significant or full shutdown again, a “W” shape recovery is still less likely to occur than a “U” shape.“Our analysis projects that a 'U' shape recovery with rather steep losses and growth this year and rather flat next year and then recovering subsequently is the most likely outcome,” said David Turkington, the Senior Vice President at State Street Associates.A recent State Street study based on 100 years of historical data shows that the U.S. still has 30.1% chance of a “U” recovery, and a combined 24.4% chance of a “W” or “L” shape recovery which include stagflation and depression outcomes.“The real economy I think is what determines the recovery and how that plays forward,” said Turkington.The real economy is jobs, businesses and consumer spending. Providing stability there could determine which way the economy goes. 2615
While families prepare to sit down together this Thanksgiving, there are many people across the country who aren't as fortunate. Charities and homeless shelters that normally prepare a warm Thanksgiving meal for those in need are having to make some changes this year due to the pandemic."The importance of Thanksgiving is not these big celebrations with the bells and whistles -- of course it is incredible to be able to be there with one another -- but it's really about providing that meal for those who are experiencing homelessness. And so, we really focused on how to still be able to provide that meal during Thanksgiving to those people," says Nicole Tschetter with the Denver Rescue Mission.The Denver Rescue Mission usually has a large banquet and celebration with the Colorado Governor and other prominent members of the community coming out to bring attention to homelessness, and serve hot meals to those in need. This year, the organization is scaling down, serving meals at two smaller locations."The people that are eating there are the people that are staying at those specific locations," says Tschetter.Tschetter still expects the Denver Rescue Mission will serve several thousand meals this Thanksgiving, just in a safe, physically distant manner.Union Station Homeless Services in Los Angeles County is serving many of their Thanksgiving meals "to go.""It's both a to-go meal for the pre-prepared ones or a fix-it-yourself, kind of like a grocery box full of lunch. So, whichever is the easiest for people. We want people to be able to share meals with their friends or family in their safe bubble and this provides two opportunities for people to get food," says Union Station Homeless Services CEO Anne Miskey.Miskey says they have fewer volunteers than normal this year, but the need they're seeing is great. A need not just for food or shelter but also human kindness."How do we recognize other people’s humanity? How do we have touch points even if we can’t physically touch people or get closer than 6 feet? How do we continue to show people we care, we’re here, we continue to help and support you," says Miskey.Tschetter recalls the story of a prior guest of the Denver Rescue Mission."It makes the world of a difference to be able to sit down and have food and, you know, I don’t remember the last time I had a warm meal and to just feel loved and feel a sense of dignity and a sense of normalcy is just such a huge thing for people who are experiencing homelessness," says Tschetter.These organizations are recognizing the importance of giving back and appreciating all we have to be thankful for in the midst of a pandemic. 2663
WICHITA, Kan. (KGTV) -- The NCAA Tournament ended Thursday night for the Aztecs after the team lost to the Houston Cougars 67-65. Rob Gray drove for a wind-milling layup that just trickled over the rim with 1.1 seconds left, and Trey Kell's off-balance 3-pointer at the buzzer was no good, giving No. 6 seed Houston a 67-65 victory over San Diego State in the first round of the NCAA Tournament on Thursday night.Devin Watson had just tied the game for the Aztecs with a turnaround 3-pointer, his second in a matter of seconds, when Gray dribbled up floor with 29 seconds left.He allowed the clock to tick down to six seconds before crossing over, scooting under two defenders and scooping up his shot.The layup gave him 39 points and the Cougars (27-7) their first tournament win since 1984.Devin Davis and Corey Davis Jr. added nine points apiece for Houston, which lost two players to fouls down the stretch, and struggled to contain the Aztecs' big front line. 977
White House senior adviser Jared Kushner's family real estate group obtained business loans after Kushner met with the company heads in his official government capacity, The New York Times reported Wednesday.According to the Times, Kushner met with Joshua Harris, one of the founders of Apollo Global Management, on multiple occasions while advising the Trump administration on infrastructure policy, three people familiar with the meetings said.The topic of a job at the White House was also brought up, though never materialized. In November 2017, Apollo's real estate group lent Kushner Companies 4 million to refinance the mortgage of a Chicago skyscraper. The size of the loan, according to the Times, was triple the size of their average property loan. 775
With growing concerns about the privacy of using Facebook, users may want to see what the social media giant is collecting about you.It was revealed Sunday that Facebook's Android app has been collecting call and text histories. But even if you aren’t an Android user, Facebook has an archive of data that it's been gathering about your interests. This includes every like, comment, photo, etc., since you first started using Facebook.This content is then used to target advertisements toward you.Here's what you need to do to download that data: 574