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SAN DIEGO (KGTV) — The latest ABC News national polling average shows former Vice President Joe Biden leading President Donald Trump by 8 points.But a lot of people are wondering, can we trust the polls after what happened in 2016?The last time Donald Trump was on the ballot in 2016, the polls had him trailing former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton by an average of 3.2 percentage points, and we know what happened.However, pollsters weren’t off by as much as you might think.“At the national level, the polling was, remarkably, given all things, precise,” said Jay Leve, CEO of the polling firm SurveyUSA.Trump lost the popular vote by 2.1 points instead of 3.2, the most accurate these national polls had been in 80 years, according to an analysis by the American Association for Public Opinion Research.Where the polls did miss badly was at the state level, particularly in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, three states that were critical in the Electoral College.Leve said there were several reasons for the polling problems at the state level.“Polling is a very expensive undertaking and so it is not possible for the handful of media organizations with pockets deep enough to afford a public opinion poll to be able to poll in every critical battleground state,” he said.Another reason? “Some of it has to do with what’s called ‘weighting,’” he added.To understand weighting, you have to know the two R’s of a good poll: it needs to be representative and random.Random samples are critical to the accuracy of polling, and you can look to your kitchen for an example why. Picture adding salt to a soup. If you mix it right, you can check the taste with any one spoonful -- you don’t have to eat the entire pot. That’s because each spoonful is a truly random sample.If you don’t mix the salt in, you could easily wind up sampling a part of the soup without any salt.When you’re trying to sample the American public with a political poll, either over the phone or most of the time now online, it’s more challenging to get a perfectly random spoonful.“The challenge is to find the individuals in the right numbers and secure their cooperation. Those two things don’t automatically work in sync,” Leve said. “People don’t want to be disturbed. They want privacy and a pollster by definition is an interruption.”It turns out, certain people tend to resist taking polls, while others are more willing. Research shows people with college degrees are more likely to respond to surveys than high school grads.That means surveys run the risk of not being representative of the voter population at large, and Leve said that kind of imbalance played a big role in 2016.To make a sample representative, pollsters gather up as many responses as they can, then adjust them with a process called weighting -- basically boosting or shrinking responses from people with certain demographics to match census data and the expected turnout.“The weighting criteria that was in issue in 2016 was whether you had enough non-college educated white voters in your sample,” Leve said. “If you did, you got the Trump forecast correct.”State polls that didn’t weight by education level missed badly, because to an extent far greater than in previous elections, voters with a college education broke for Clinton while voters with a high school education backed Trump.There’s some evidence that pollsters have learned from their 2016 mistakes. Polling in the 2018 midterms was very accurate -- a full point better than the average over the last 20 years.So can we trust the polls this time around?Leve says yes, as long as you remember that polls are just a snapshot in time and Donald Trump is difficult to predict.“Don’t be surprised if something happens in the final four, five, six days of the election, right before November 3rd, that’s so unforeseeable that neither you nor I nor anyone watching us could have imagined. And if so, that’s going to throw all the polls off,” he said. 3979

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) -- The California Department of Motor Vehicles is reminding residents about the looming REAL ID deadline. Starting October 1, 2020, U.S. residents will need a REAL ID to fly domestically or enter secure federal facilities and military bases. The new ID is the result of the 9/11 Commission's recommendation to establish standards for identity verification and security features. In California, a gold bear and star indicates REAL ID compliance. The DMV is also reminding residents about requirements to obtain a REAL ID. Check out the requirements below: One proof of Identity – Original or Certified (Valid passport, birth certificate, etc.)One proof of Social Security number (Social Security card or W-2 form showing entire number)Two different proofs of California Residency showing street address Paper documents required. (Utility or cell phone bill, bank statement, mortgage bill, etc.)Click here for a full list of acceptable application documents. 982

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) - The County of San Diego is changing who can get a COVID-19 test at county sites.Officials said Monday that going forward, the county is focusing coronavirus testing efforts for priority groups, including those with symptoms."For new appointments being made, those will be focused on individuals who are symptomatic or individuals who are asymptomatic that fit into some of our priority groups like healthcare workers, first responders, those with chronic or underlying health conditions and those living in long-term care facilities," said County of San Diego Supervisor Nathan Fletcher.Fletcher said the county has more sick people and more positive cases, which means there's a greater demand on the testing system.He explained that challenge is being compounded by a global supply chain shortage with testing supplies and components."By taking this approach to reprioritize our focus on symptomatic folks and asymptomatic folks who are in the settings I just described we might see a reduction in the number of tests being done, but we do hope to see an increase in the speed in which we're able to turn around those tests," Fletcher said.Testing supply issues are not just a local problem. On Monday, California Gov. Gavin Newsom was asked about supply issues and test result turnaround times."It's unacceptable in this nation and in this state that we are not in a position to be doing even larger scale testing that all of us have been very, very aggressively promoting and trying to manifest," Newsom said, adding that the state is also starting to see delays in testing results.Harvard researchers have said the timing of testing results is crucial."If it takes over a week for the result to come back, mathematically it becomes challenging for testing and contract tracing alone to be adequate," Dr. Thomas Tsai, assistant professor in the Department of Health Policy and Management at Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health and a surgeon at Brigham and Women's Hospital.Harvard researchers found most states still fall short when it comes to testing.Here in California, the state Department of Public Health reports more than 5 million tests have been conducted across the state.On a call with reporters last week, Tsai said California is testing a very high number of people, but relative to its population, it's falling short of its target for suppressing COVID-19."What happened in California is, as the cases have increased, the testing has increased in proportion but hasn't increased to a level where testing has outpaced the growth of cases and the ability to contact trace has actually gotten ahead of the infection and gotten control of it," he said.On Monday, San Diego County officials announced a partnership with local company Helix to provide up to 2,000 tests a day.County officials say they've received 7,500 tests and those are already being used at two sites.Another 10,000 will be sent tomorrow and they expect within a week that every site will be using them.That will ease some of the burden, but won’t cure the overall problem. 3089

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) - The City of San Diego is planning on expand its designated scooter parking zones to Ocean Beach. The Mayor’s staff recently sent a list and map of 106 prospective locations to the Ocean Beach planning board. The scooter corrals are similar to the on-street parking the city has already installed downtown. The ‘Micro Mobility Parking Corrals’ - as the city calls them - are installed at red curb spaces that do not block traffic, fire hydrants or impede visibility. The Mayor’s office says it is working with community groups to find suitable locations in OB and they plan to have feedback by June 10th. 630

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) -- The Infinite Chemical Analysis Lab building in Miramar looks like any other chemical lab, but inside the products they are testing are all cannabis. InfiniteCal tests products for things like potency, pesticides, heavy metals and microbial analysis to make sure the products are safe for consumption and meet state standards. Josh Swider is the CEO and co-founder. Swider's company consists of roughly 45 employees, 30 of those are either chemists or biologists. The team tests products for licensed retailers to make sure their cannabis meets the standard for what is allowed by the state. When it comes to vaping, Swider says their analysis shows that what's making people sick is when the product is diluted, most recently with Vitamin E or Vitamin E acetate. According to the CDC, 33 people have died from lung related illnesses linked to e-ciggarettes or vaping products. Most of those samples tested by the FDA had THC. San Diego County has confirmed 22 vape related illnesses in the county. Although InfiniteCal doesn't just test products for vaping, Swider says the best thing a person can do is to do their research and make sure they are buying from a licensed retailer. He also recommends asking the business for their certificate of analysis to find out what's in the cannabis product they're consuming. InfiniteCal operates six days a week and also will tests an individual consumer's product if they show up to the lab. The company is expanding to a location four times it's current size by the end of the year. 1554