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SAN DIEGO (KGTV) — As states continue to count votes, one thing is clear: the pre-election polls were off again.Pollsters underestimated support for President Donald Trump by a wider margin than they did in 2016, prompting a number of theories about what went wrong and why changes adopted after the 2016 election proved ineffective.Heading into Election Day 2020, candidate Joe Biden led Trump nationally by an average of 8.4%, according to FiveThirtyEight’s polling average. We won’t know the final margin until all the votes are counted, but it looks like Trump’s support was underestimated by about 3.5%.That’s wider than the national popular vote miss in 2016, when the polls underestimated Trump’s support by 1.1%.“Polling emerged from 2016 with a black eye. This is fair to say a second black eye in 2020,” said Jay Leve of polling firm SurveyUSA.Leve said the industry thought it had corrected its 2016 mistakes. Polling in the 2018 midterms was very accurate.In 2020, pollsters made sure to weigh for education level and include enough non-college-educated white voters to try to capture a representative sample of the electorate.But state polls show it didn’t work. In Ohio, there was a nearly 8-point miss. In Wisconsin, there was a nearly 10-point miss. In Florida, the polls missed by 5 points and incorrectly showed Biden in the lead.“While pollsters attempted to correct for the mistakes that they made in 2016, President Trump was busy hammering home a narrative that, number one, the media is the enemy of the people. And number two, polls are fake polls,” Leve said.Leve thinks that skepticism and distrust caused Trump supporters to ignore pollsters at a higher rate, causing them to be underrepresented in samples.San Diego State political scientist Dr. Stephen Goggin says there are other theories as well.“Between mail-in balloting, the pandemic, between all the early voting and all the confusion it creates, it’s possible some of that played a role in creating the error we saw this time,” he said.Goggin said the pandemic may have made the models used to predict voter turnout less accurate this cycle. Many surveys heading into the election showed an unusual trend: Biden was polling better among so-called “likely voters” than among registered voters overall. Typically Republicans hold an edge among likely voters, Nate Cohn of the New York Times noted.There’s also some early data suggesting once the pandemic hit, Democrats started responding to surveys more frequently, something that could have shifted the poll numbers.There may have also been issues surveying certain demographic groups. Pre-election polls showed Biden chipping away at Trump’s lead with seniors compared to 2016, but Biden actually did worse than Clinton with that demographic in certain key states. Trump’s support among Hispanic voters in Florida also surprised pollsters. If exit polling data shows that trend continued in other states, it might explain about one-quarter of this year’s polling error, according to the New York Times.“Many of these errors are fixable when they find out what went wrong and you can still get high-quality samples,” Goggin said.Pollsters are planning to do detailed autopsies on the election once they have final turnout data and results by precinct. Polling firms will eventually post detailed data from their results to the Roper Center for more finely tuned analysis.ABC 10News used SurveyUSA this election cycle to poll 11 state and local races. The final polls accurately predicted the winner in all 11 races, although the margins weren’t perfect.The ABC 10News/Union-Tribune scientific polls actually overestimated Trump’s support in California by about 4 points, relative to vote totals as of November 12. 3757

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) — Before Vice President Mike Pence made his way to Coronado, he spent the morning at the Hilton Bayfront Hotel.The Vice President and Second lady stayed there during their San Diego Visit. A few protestors inflated the now well-known "Baby Trump" outside of the hotel; It's possible the Vice President got a look at the giant balloon. "We're hoping that the Vice President sees this and sees that there is resistance here in San Diego," says protestor Will Johnson. The giant balloon was an attention grabber for many who saw it on Park Boulevard. "I knew he was coming to town, but I didn't know he was staying here," says Kate Permenter. Permenter is in town for a convention and staying at the Hilton Bayfront Hotel, saying, "So last night people kind of started freaking out."Outside of the hotel, security checked every car making its way into the garage. Hotel guests say there are dozens of police officers and secret service agents inside of the hotel. "At every entrance, there are cops just kind of staring at you."Dozens of officers escorted the motorcade as the Vice President left downtown this morning. Protestors said there would be another demonstration outside of the hotel at 7 p.m. but "Baby Trump" will not be in attendance. 1270

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) -- Crews are working to rescue someone trapped on a cliff in Torrey Pines Monday afternoon. According to the San Diego Fire-Rescue Department, the rescue is taking place on the 12000 block of Torrey Pines Park Road. At this time, it’s unclear how the individual became stuck on the cliff. 10News will continue to keep you updated as soon as we receive more information. 395

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) - Complaints about red-light runners are mounting at a busy intersection in Mira Mesa.Jacob Rogers, 12, says his dad was recently driving him through the intersection, when this happened.   219

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) -- Car insurance is on the rise throughout San Diego and California.According to The Zebra, the average annual auto insurance premium for San Diego is more than ,600.Still, insurance is cheaper in San Diego than other parts of California. Drivers in Los Angeles pay an average of ,928 per year for insurance. Since 2011, the San Diego metro has seen rates rise 45 percent, more than doubling the 20 percent increase nationwide.California doesn’t factor things like credit and education into car insurance rates.According to the report, rising insurance rates are likely due to a combination of severe weather and more drivers on the road.Overall, California is the ninth most expensive state for car insurance with the most expensive being Michigan and the least expensive North Carolina. 822