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SAN DIEGO (KGTV) — As states continue to count votes, one thing is clear: the pre-election polls were off again.Pollsters underestimated support for President Donald Trump by a wider margin than they did in 2016, prompting a number of theories about what went wrong and why changes adopted after the 2016 election proved ineffective.Heading into Election Day 2020, candidate Joe Biden led Trump nationally by an average of 8.4%, according to FiveThirtyEight’s polling average. We won’t know the final margin until all the votes are counted, but it looks like Trump’s support was underestimated by about 3.5%.That’s wider than the national popular vote miss in 2016, when the polls underestimated Trump’s support by 1.1%.“Polling emerged from 2016 with a black eye. This is fair to say a second black eye in 2020,” said Jay Leve of polling firm SurveyUSA.Leve said the industry thought it had corrected its 2016 mistakes. Polling in the 2018 midterms was very accurate.In 2020, pollsters made sure to weigh for education level and include enough non-college-educated white voters to try to capture a representative sample of the electorate.But state polls show it didn’t work. In Ohio, there was a nearly 8-point miss. In Wisconsin, there was a nearly 10-point miss. In Florida, the polls missed by 5 points and incorrectly showed Biden in the lead.“While pollsters attempted to correct for the mistakes that they made in 2016, President Trump was busy hammering home a narrative that, number one, the media is the enemy of the people. And number two, polls are fake polls,” Leve said.Leve thinks that skepticism and distrust caused Trump supporters to ignore pollsters at a higher rate, causing them to be underrepresented in samples.San Diego State political scientist Dr. Stephen Goggin says there are other theories as well.“Between mail-in balloting, the pandemic, between all the early voting and all the confusion it creates, it’s possible some of that played a role in creating the error we saw this time,” he said.Goggin said the pandemic may have made the models used to predict voter turnout less accurate this cycle. Many surveys heading into the election showed an unusual trend: Biden was polling better among so-called “likely voters” than among registered voters overall. Typically Republicans hold an edge among likely voters, Nate Cohn of the New York Times noted.There’s also some early data suggesting once the pandemic hit, Democrats started responding to surveys more frequently, something that could have shifted the poll numbers.There may have also been issues surveying certain demographic groups. Pre-election polls showed Biden chipping away at Trump’s lead with seniors compared to 2016, but Biden actually did worse than Clinton with that demographic in certain key states. Trump’s support among Hispanic voters in Florida also surprised pollsters. If exit polling data shows that trend continued in other states, it might explain about one-quarter of this year’s polling error, according to the New York Times.“Many of these errors are fixable when they find out what went wrong and you can still get high-quality samples,” Goggin said.Pollsters are planning to do detailed autopsies on the election once they have final turnout data and results by precinct. Polling firms will eventually post detailed data from their results to the Roper Center for more finely tuned analysis.ABC 10News used SurveyUSA this election cycle to poll 11 state and local races. The final polls accurately predicted the winner in all 11 races, although the margins weren’t perfect.The ABC 10News/Union-Tribune scientific polls actually overestimated Trump’s support in California by about 4 points, relative to vote totals as of November 12. 3757

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) — California public health officials say the Southern California region has run out of ICU bed capacity.The region, which includes San Diego and 10 other counties, hit 0% capacity, as the state reported 52,200 more coronavirus cases on Thursday. California officials say regional ICU capacity is calculated based on the total number of adult ICU beds minus neonatal and pediatric ICU beds. Adult ICU capacity includes staffed ICU beds and ICU surge beds.San Diego County said Thursday that it was currently at 16% ICU capacity after adding 2,604 new virus cases. There are 295 ICU cases in the county out of 1,186 hospitalizations. County health officials said there has been a 20% increase in ICU cases locally over the last seven days.The Southern California region was one of four regions under the 15% ICU capacity threshold for California's recent stay-at-home order:Bay Area: 13.1%Greater Sacramento Region: 11.3%Northern California: 25.8%San Joaquin Valley: 0.7%Southern California: 0.0%The Southern California region includes Imperial, Inyo, Los Angeles, Mono, Orange, Riverside, San Bernardino, San Luis Obispo, Santa Barbara, and Ventura counties. 1182

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) — Assemblymember Todd Gloria, D-San Diego, praised state lawmakers for sending a bill to the governor that would restrict gun shows at Del Mar Fairgrounds.Assembly Bill 893 would ban the sale of guns or ammunition anywhere on the Del Mar Fairgrounds property beginning in 2021, according to Gloria's office. The bill passed the California Senate 27-11 Tuesday.Anyone who violates the bill could face a misdemeanor charge, according to the bill.Gloria is a co-author of the legislation alongside Assemblywoman Tasha Boerner-Horvath, D-Encinitas, and Assemblywomen Lorena Gonzalez, D-San Diego.“This is a victory for gun sense and making our communities safer in San Diego,” said Gloria.“This bill is about offering more than thoughts and prayers. It’s about policy and action and listening to the communities around the Fairgrounds who no longer want these events taking place. In California, we value people over guns and this bill makes that clear."Gov. Gavin Newsom has until Oct. 13 to sign or veto the legislation.Gun shows at the fairgrounds has been hotly debated over the last year. In September 2018, the 22nd DAA's Board of Directors voted to temporarily suspend gun shows at the Del Mar Fairgrounds until the state developed new safety policies around them. The decision ended the Crossroads of the West gun show's contract with the fairgrounds after nearly three decades.In February 2019, the three Assemblymembers introduced AB 893 into the state Assembly. The bill passed the Assembly 48-16 in April. Then in June 2019, a judge ruled that gun shows could continue at the fairgrounds while the court considered a lawsuit against the fairground's decision to suspend the shows.Throughout the the back-and-forth, the legislation has been opposed by the NRA, Gun Owners of California, and the California Rifle and Pistol Association. 1867

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) — As states continue to count votes, one thing is clear: the pre-election polls were off again.Pollsters underestimated support for President Donald Trump by a wider margin than they did in 2016, prompting a number of theories about what went wrong and why changes adopted after the 2016 election proved ineffective.Heading into Election Day 2020, candidate Joe Biden led Trump nationally by an average of 8.4%, according to FiveThirtyEight’s polling average. We won’t know the final margin until all the votes are counted, but it looks like Trump’s support was underestimated by about 3.5%.That’s wider than the national popular vote miss in 2016, when the polls underestimated Trump’s support by 1.1%.“Polling emerged from 2016 with a black eye. This is fair to say a second black eye in 2020,” said Jay Leve of polling firm SurveyUSA.Leve said the industry thought it had corrected its 2016 mistakes. Polling in the 2018 midterms was very accurate.In 2020, pollsters made sure to weigh for education level and include enough non-college-educated white voters to try to capture a representative sample of the electorate.But state polls show it didn’t work. In Ohio, there was a nearly 8-point miss. In Wisconsin, there was a nearly 10-point miss. In Florida, the polls missed by 5 points and incorrectly showed Biden in the lead.“While pollsters attempted to correct for the mistakes that they made in 2016, President Trump was busy hammering home a narrative that, number one, the media is the enemy of the people. And number two, polls are fake polls,” Leve said.Leve thinks that skepticism and distrust caused Trump supporters to ignore pollsters at a higher rate, causing them to be underrepresented in samples.San Diego State political scientist Dr. Stephen Goggin says there are other theories as well.“Between mail-in balloting, the pandemic, between all the early voting and all the confusion it creates, it’s possible some of that played a role in creating the error we saw this time,” he said.Goggin said the pandemic may have made the models used to predict voter turnout less accurate this cycle. Many surveys heading into the election showed an unusual trend: Biden was polling better among so-called “likely voters” than among registered voters overall. Typically Republicans hold an edge among likely voters, Nate Cohn of the New York Times noted.There’s also some early data suggesting once the pandemic hit, Democrats started responding to surveys more frequently, something that could have shifted the poll numbers.There may have also been issues surveying certain demographic groups. Pre-election polls showed Biden chipping away at Trump’s lead with seniors compared to 2016, but Biden actually did worse than Clinton with that demographic in certain key states. Trump’s support among Hispanic voters in Florida also surprised pollsters. If exit polling data shows that trend continued in other states, it might explain about one-quarter of this year’s polling error, according to the New York Times.“Many of these errors are fixable when they find out what went wrong and you can still get high-quality samples,” Goggin said.Pollsters are planning to do detailed autopsies on the election once they have final turnout data and results by precinct. Polling firms will eventually post detailed data from their results to the Roper Center for more finely tuned analysis.ABC 10News used SurveyUSA this election cycle to poll 11 state and local races. The final polls accurately predicted the winner in all 11 races, although the margins weren’t perfect.The ABC 10News/Union-Tribune scientific polls actually overestimated Trump’s support in California by about 4 points, relative to vote totals as of November 12. 3757

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) — Chris Cate may soon feel like the loneliest politician in San Diego.Come December, he'll likely be the only Republican on the otherwise Democratic San Diego City Council. That’s because it appears Democrats will secure an 8-1 advantage on the City Council, based on returns from Tuesday’s election.“We'll have to figure out a new path going into election two years from now and another election two years after that,” Cate said.Cate is a San Diego native who represents the city's North Central areas. The jobs are technically nonpartisan, but divides do show when it comes to key votes on housing development, city contracting, and public safety. Cate says he won't be shy.“And really try to ensure that we as a government are mindful of the fact that we rely on taxpayer dollars to provide those resources, and not try to go back to the well multiple times to increase fees or taxes,” Cate said.Cate describes himself as a fiscal conservative and social moderate. He joined the council in 2014, when Democrats had a 5-4 advantage over Republicans. Democrat registration has exploded since then, with some politicians abandoning the Republican Party.Termed out Councilman Mark Kersey is now an independent, and State Assemblyman Brian Maienschein flipped to a democrat.But Cate says he'll never leave the party.“Absolutely not… 100%, no,” he said.Being the lone Republican on the council could also raise Cate’s political profile. For instance, many times he'd be the only alternative viewpoint for journalists to ask for comment. Cate said, however, that he's not seeking higher office. He terms out in 2022.Cate said more than 90% of the issues the council takes up are nonpartisan. He added he has known leading Democratic mayoral candidate Todd Gloria for years and finds him to be a person of integrity. 1836