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BEIJING, May 5 --  The economy is likely to expand 7 percent in the second quarter - up from the first quarter's 6.1 percent - even as it confronts the painful prospect of shedding industrial overcapacity, a top government think tank said Monday.    "Economic growth will pick up in the second quarter as the government's stimulus measures gradually take effect," the State Information Center (SIC) forecast.     "There has been preliminary success in arresting the economy's downward trend," it said, but did not mention any fallout from the global H1N1 flu alert.     But Zhu Baoliang, an SIC economist and one of the authors of the SIC report, said the economy will only be slightly affected by the H1N1 flu.     Annualized GDP growth sank to a decade's low in the first quarter, largely because of a collapse in export demand.     But analysts said the economy might have bottomed out since then as latest economic figures are increasingly upbeat.     The CLSA China Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), a gauge of manufacturing activity, rose to 50.1 in April, the first time it has been above 50 since last August, CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets said yesterday. A PMI reading above 50 indicates an expansion of the manufacturing sector, while a reading below 50 signals a contraction.     Also, the PMI index compiled by the Federation of Logistics and Purchasing rose for the fifth straight month in April to 53.5 percent, up 1.1 percentage points from a month earlier.     The positive economic signs sent stock markets up across Asia, with the mainland's Shanghai Composite Index rising 3.3 percent and Hong Kong's Hang Seng index 5.5 percent.     "The Chinese government has been extremely successful in stimulating investment," said Eric Fishwick, CLSA head of economic research. "We hope that firmer domestic demand, as government spending gains traction, will keep the PMI above 50 in the months to come."     The World Bank said in a report in early April that the Chinese economy is expected to bottom out by the middle of 2009. It also forecast China's economic growth at 6.5 percent for the year.     The International Monetary Fund also forecast last month that growth in China is expected to slow to about 6.5 percent this year.     Consumer spending held fast over the past months, despite looming unemployment pressure. About 2.68 million vehicles were sold in the first quarter, making the nation the world's largest auto market during the period.     Housing sales surged 23.1 percent by value while retail sales rose 15.9 percent in the first quarter, 3.6 percentage points higher than the same period a year earlier.     "Based on the clear uptrend in recent economic activity we believe the worst is already behind China in terms of economic growth," Sun Mingchun, chief China economist of Nomura International, wrote in a research note. Sun said China would achieve its 8 percent growth target this year, with a V-shaped growth trajectory.     But some analysts argue that the figures could be volatile and the economy has to deal with the structural problem of overcapacity.     "It's still too early to say the economy is experiencing a real recovery," said Zhu, the SIC economist. "Over the past months, local enterprises have been running down their inventories. Now they have to reduce overcapacity."

YEKATERINBURG, Russia, June 16 (Xinhua) -- Chinese President Hu Jintao Tuesday presented a four-point proposal for dealing with the ongoing global financial crisis at the first summit meeting of BRIC countries which groups Brazil, Russia, India and China.     First, BRIC countries should commit themselves to bringing about an early recovery of the world economy, Hu said. "We should work hard to overcome the difficulties and try to take the lead in recovering from the global financial crisis," he said, adding "This is not only for our own need, but also contributes to world economic recovery." Chinese President Hu Jintao (2nd R) poses for a group photo together with Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (1st L), Russian President Dmitry Medvedev (2nd L), and Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh during the first formal meeting of BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India and China) leaders in Yekaterinburg, Russia, on June 16, 2009    BRIC countries should solve the long-existing structural problems in their economic development and change their development pattern in an effort to improve the quality and level of their economic development , while striving to resume world economic growth.     He also urged BRIC countries to continue to open their markets, make use of their mutually complementary strength and expand economic and trade cooperation.     "We should also firmly oppose protectionism, jointly safeguard the normal and orderly flow of commodities, services and personnel worldwide, and help ensure that the Doha round of global trade talks would achieve a comprehensive and balanced outcome as soon as possible," he added. The first summit meeting of BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India and China) leaders is held in Yekaterinburg, Russia, on June 16, 2009.Second, BRIC countries should commit themselves to pushing forward the reform of international financial system, Hu said.     To establish a new international financial order that is fair, equitable, inclusive and well-managed, and provide guarantee for the sustainable development of the global economy in terms of system and mechanism conforms with the trend of the historical development and is in the fundamental interest of all parties, he said.     BRIC countries should improve the international financial supervision mechanism and ensure the effective participation of the developing countries in world financial supervision organizations such as the Financial Stability Board, Hu said.     Third, BRIC countries should commit themselves to implementing the UN Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), the president said.     The international community should not overlook development issues and cut the input for development while dealing with global financial crisis, he said.     Instead, it should pay close attention to the impact that the crisis has left on developing countries, especially the least developed ones, he added. Chinese President Hu Jintao attends the first summit meeting of BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India and China) leaders in Yekaterinburg, Russia, on June 16, 2009The BRIC countries should call on all parties to continue to implement the MDGs and urge the developed economies to fulfil their commitment to assistance, he added.     Fourth, BRIC countries should commit themselves to ensuring the security of food, energy resource, and public health, he added.     He said while tackling the ongoing global financial crisis, efforts should be made to properly handle some outstanding problems that hinder development, such as climate change, food, energy, resource and public health security. A long-term approach and overall plan should be adopted to take all factors into consideration as these issues bear on the wellbeing of all peoples in the world and their overall interests, he added.     He also urged BRIC countries to increase investment in agriculture, develop advanced agricultural technique and curb market speculation. He also called for greater food assistance and closer agricultural and food cooperation.     "We should also accelerate our efforts in developing clean and renewable energy, and establish advanced research and promotion systems in a bid to diversity our energy supply," Hu said.     He urged the four countries to strengthen information exchanges and communication, share the experience on epidemics preventions and control, and work together to develop and share vaccines, and cooperate in pandemic control and prevention.

BAGHDAD, July 16 (Xinhua) -- As an Iraqi Muslim who has visited China, I was so shocked and sad when I read reports of the July 5 violence in China's Xinjiang province, especially when I learned from the Western media of clashes between the Han Chinese and Uygurs, and government troops cracking down on the Uygurs.     I could not believe it, not from my experience in China.     So I immediately contacted my friends in China, from whom I learned that the reports by the Western media were purposely biased and to a certain extent, politically motivated -- just as their versions of the U.S. occupation in Iraq.     I have been to China twice -- first for a visit of two weeks, and then for a year's stay, from August 2006 to August 2007. During my visits, I was impressed by the way China's 56 ethnic groups, with Hans in the majority, live peacefully together and religious freedom respected.     When I was in Beijing, I prayed every Friday at a mosque at Niujie, a Muslim-dominated district in the Chinese capital.     As an Iraqi, whose country at the time was suffering from daily explosions, shootings and kidnappings, I remember I was often touched by the good wishes extended to me by complete strangers, among them Han people who visited the mosque, which has a history of more than 1,000 years.     During my time living and working among the majority Han Chinese in Beijing, I found no difficulty performing my Islamic rituals, neither did I notice any untoward incidents against Muslims in China, including the Uygurs.     I met many Chinese Muslims, who were really proud of being Chinese citizens.     I remember a small Chinese restaurant in Niujie, owned by a Uygur Chinese, which I frequented for its Islamic food and music.     I noticed TV programs in the restaurant were in the Uygur language, and when I inquired about it, one young man, who said he was studying at an Islamic institute, answered in Arabic "we have television stations in Xinjiang that use our language, which is backed by the central government."     Today, I still remember the Chinese pilgrims I met who went to Mecca for the Hajj (pilgrimage), in Saudi Arabia. They often wore jackets with a Chinese flag stitched on, and under the flag were words in Arabic -- "Chinese Hajj" or Chinese pilgrim, and I could feel their sense of being proud Chinese Muslims.     Once I tried to joke with one of the pilgrims and asked through a translator, "can you give me this jacket, so that I can show it to my folks in Iraq that this is a gift from my Chinese friend?"     He smiled and said: "I can buy you a new one, but I will have to keep this one, as I have worn it for years and I am proud to have this flag on my chest."     Islam is the second biggest religion in China, next to Buddhism. As far as I know, there are some 30,000 mosques in China, including 70 in Beijing.     Outside the capital, religious freedom is well respected as well. When I went to Henan province for a vacation, I witnessed Islamic lectures being held frequently at major mosques, and Muslims living peacefully and happily.     Muslims and other minorities in China enjoy exceptional privileges. My Chinese Muslim friends told me that, like other minority groups, they are not bound by the one-child-policy.     Muslims and other minorities are also accepted at lower qualifications to colleges and universities; and minorities like the Uygur and Hui are well represented in governments at all levels.     So when people say that the July 5 violence occurred because the Uygurs felt discriminated by the majority Hans, I really cannot believe it. I have personally witnessed how well Muslims and Han Chinese get along.     One day while sitting in the yard of the Niujie mosque, I met a young man who I later learned was an Egyptian. Named Ahmed, he had come to Beijing to marry a Han Chinese girl who he met in Cairo while she was studying there.     But according to religious ritual, a non-Muslim girl or man cannot marry a Muslim unless he or she converts to Islam.     A week later, when I met Ahmed again he told me that his dream had come true, the girl had decided to convert to Islam.     She had met no objections from her family. Within a week she was issued a certificate by the mosque confirming that she was now a Muslim.     I also have a female friend in Beijing, a Han Chinese, who is married to a Hui Muslim. They have a happy family.     Today, when I see pictures of the bloody clashes in Xinjiang, it reminds me of what is happening here in Baghdad.     I feel outraged as I witness the media repeating what they did in Iraq -- inciting internal conflict to serve certain agendas.     My country has been suffering from foreign interference and domestic violence for more than six years. With the war, and the sectarian conflicts, our once prosperous country is now in ruins.     The sectarian strife has been largely fanned by foreign powers to alienate Iraq's Sunnis, Shiites and Kurds, and the United States once even had a "separation-of-Iraq-into-three" scheme high on its agenda.     What have ordinary Iraqis received -- be they Sunnis, Shiites, or Kurds? Nothing. Nothing but devastation, displacement and the loss of lives of innocent people. My son, Omar, was injured by a roadside bomb in October 2007. He was only 12 years old at the time.     I call on the people to cool down and consider the whole picture: see what has happened in Iraq. Do not let yourself be fooled by those who try to undermine the security and stability of China by trying to destroy the peaceful co-existence of its ethnic groups.