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As the Summer of COVID draws to a close, many experts fear an even bleaker fall and suggest that American families should start planning for Thanksgiving by Zoom.Because of the many uncertainties, public health scientists say it’s easier to forecast the weather on Thanksgiving Day than to predict how the U.S. coronavirus crisis will play out this autumn. But school reopenings, holiday travel and more indoor activity because of colder weather could all separately increase transmission of the virus and combine in ways that could multiply the threat, they say.Here’s one way it could go: As more schools open for in-person instruction and more college students return to campuses, small clusters of cases could widen into outbreaks in late September. Public fatigue over mask rules and other restrictions could stymie efforts to slow these infections.A few weeks later, widening outbreaks could start to strain hospitals. If a bad flu season peaks in October, as happened in 2009, the pressure on the health care system could result in higher daily death tolls from the coronavirus. Dr. Robert Redfield, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, has said that scenario is his biggest fear.One certainty is that the virus will still be around, said Jarad Niemi, a disease-modeling expert at Iowa State University.“We will not have a vaccine yet and we will not have enough infected individuals for herd immunity to be helpful,” Niemi said.Fall may feel like a roller coaster of stop-and-start restrictions, as communities react to climbing hospital cases, said University of Texas disease modeler Lauren Ancel Meyers. Everyone should get a flu shot, she said, because if flu spreads widely, hospitals will begin to buckle and “that will compound the threat of COVID.”“The decisions we make today will fundamentally impact the safety and feasibility of what we can do next month and by Thanksgiving,” Meyers said.The virus is blamed for over 180,000 deaths and 6 million confirmed infections in the U.S. Worldwide, the death toll is put at almost 850,000, with over 25 million cases.The U.S. is recording on average about 900 deaths a day from COVID-19, and newly confirmed infections per day are running at about 42,000, down from their peak in mid-July, when cases were topping out at over 70,000.Around the country, a chicken processing plant in California will close this week for deep cleaning after nearly 400 workers got sick, including eight who died. And college campuses have been hit by outbreaks involving hundreds of students, blamed in some cases on too much partying. Schools including the University of North Carolina, Michigan State and Notre Dame have moved instruction online because of clusters on their campuses.Several vaccines are in advanced testing, and researchers hope to have results later this year. But even if a vaccine is declared safe and effective by year’s end, as some expect, there won’t be enough for everyone who wants it right away.Several companies are developing rapid, at-home tests, which conceivably could be used by families before a Thanksgiving gathering, but none has yet won approval.More than 90 million adults are over 65 or have health problems, putting them in higher danger of severe consequences if they get sick with the coronavirus. Many of them and their families are starting to decide whether to book holiday flights.Cassie Docking, 44, an urgent care nurse in Seattle, is telling her parents — both cancer survivors — that Thanksgiving will be by FaceTime only.“We all want to get to 2021,” she said, “and if that’s what it takes, that’s what we’ll do.”Caitlin Joyce’s family is forging ahead with a holiday feast. They plan to set up plywood tables on sawhorses in a large garage so they can sit 6 feet apart.“We’ll be in our coats and our sweaters,” said Joyce, 30, of Edmonds, Washington, who plans to travel to her grandparents’ home in Virginia. “It will be almost like camping.”One widely cited disease model projects 2,086 U.S. deaths per day by Thanksgiving, more than double compared with today.“In our family we will not have our extended family get-together. We will stick to the nuclear family,” said Dr. Christopher Murray of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, one of the few models making a prediction for November.Uncertainty is huge in Murray’s model: Daily deaths could be as low as 1,500 by Thanksgiving or as high as 3,100. In a more optimistic scenario, daily deaths could range from 510 to 1,200 if nearly everyone wears masks. A more pessimistic scenario? From 2,700 to 6,500 daily deaths if social distancing rules continue to be lifted and are not reimposed.With all the uncertainty, most disease modelers aren’t looking that far ahead — at least officially.Jeffrey Shaman, a public health expert at Columbia University, thinks the virus will spread more easily as the weather forces people indoors: “But what level of a bump? That’s hard to say.”At Carnegie Mellon University in Pittsburgh, computer scientist Roni Rosenfeld’s team uses machine learning to project COVID-19 deaths. The team’s computer algorithm learns from patterns it finds in state and county data to improve its forecasts.A five-time winner of a CDC competition for predicting flu season activity, Rosenfeld thinks his model’s COVID-19 projections aren’t very useful beyond four weeks because of the wild card of human behavior, including that of government officials.“What happens very much depends on us,” he said. “People, myself included, don’t always behave rationally.” Presented with the same facts, “the same person might behave differently depending on how sick and tired they are of the situation.”Like other disease modelers, Rosenfeld said the virus will still be with us at Thanksgiving, readily spreading at family gatherings. While his plans may yet change, he said he is going to travel with his wife to visit their adult children. They will wear masks and keep a safe distance during the visit.___The Associated Press Health and Science Department receives support from the Howard Hughes Medical Institute’s Department of Science Education. The AP is solely responsible for all content. 6201

AURORA, Colo. – The Aurora City Council unanimously adopted a resolution Monday, calling for an independent investigation into Elijah McClain’s death.The resolution calls for a three-member independent investigation team that will have at least three consultants and will be led by Jonathan Smith of the Washington Lawyers Committee for Civil Rights and Urban Affairs in Washington, D.C.The team will include consultants who have expertise in independent investigations, law enforcement and public safety accountability, civil rights, use of force, police and EMT training and criminal justice.The city council’s Public Safety, Courts and Civil Service Committee had said just last week they were still working to find a medical expert who can speak to the use of ketamine on McClain and at least one other person.The team of investigators, once formed, will “commence its work immediately and shall complete its investigation as expeditiously as possible,” according to language included in the resolution.The team would then issue a written report to the city council, present its findings to the council in a public meeting, and make the report public. The report will include recommendations to the city on the McClain incident as well as future best practices the police, fire and EMT departments should implement.McClain, 23, was unarmed when he was encountered by Aurora police on Aug. 24, 2019. Police put McClain in a carotid hold, which limits blood flow to the brain, after stopping him while he was walking home. When he became unresponsive, paramedics gave him ketamine, police have said.The officers involved in McClain's death were not arrested or charged, despite continued calls for justice from McClain's family and supporters, along with calls for an independent investigation.Aurora city leaders in June said a Connecticut attorney was leading a third-party investigation into the McClain incident. But city councilmembers Alison Hiltz, Curtis Gardener, and Angela Lawson argued that the attorney, a former police officer who has worked closely with police departments, could not provide an independent review. The city cut ties with the attorney before moving forward with the current investigation.In June, as McClain's death garnered national interest, Gov. Jared Polis appointed Attorney General Phil Weiser to investigate the officers' actions. The Colorado U.S. Attorney's Office also confirmed it is working with the Department of Justice Civil Rights Division to investigate the matter.This story was originally published by óscar Contreras at KMGH. 2585

As states across the country grapple with an increase in coronavirus cases and a huge demand for tests, many businesses are looking for other ways to get more mileage out of their supply chain.Like with anything else, supply and demand is a constant struggle. In this unprecedented era, the demand for things like coronavirus tests is so large that public health departments don't have a choice but to figure out ways to make our supplies last. Several states are examining pooled testing. California's Public Health Department says it's to "better leverage testing resources."Pooling is something that blood banks have used for decades to keep their blood supply safe. Dr. Claudia Cohn is the Chief Medical Officer of the AABB, formerly known as the American Association of Blood Banks.“If you have 100 people that need to be tested and if you test each of them, you’ll do 100 tests. If you find that your test is sensitive enough that you can pool together 20 samples at the same time, instead of having 100 tests, you can have five pools of 20,” Dr. Cohn said.Now, if one of those five pools is positive, then Dr. Cohn says, "You’ll need to break it out and test each of those separately. So, let’s say you have one positive person in a pool of 100 people, you either do 100 tests and find one positive or you do five pools of 20, four of those pools will be negative, so you’ve done 4 pools and covered 80 people."The test works by taking a tiny sample from each person who was tested.“When you take a swab from everyone’s nose, you isolate the DNA from that swab,” Dr. Cohn said about the PCR test, which is generally a nose swab. “It’s not a lot, it’s a small amount but it’s enough. Because these tests are very, very sensitive.”Those tests are so sensitive, and they have to be, that pooling can really only work if the test can handle, as in detect, multiple samples at once. The FDA mandates that.“The FDA is quite demanding as they should be in terms of making sure tests work well and are safe,” Dr. Cohn said.And Dr. Cohn says, pooling wouldn't work in an area where there's a large outbreak, which means a large number of people would test positive regardless of pooling. In the blood world, this strategy has been perfected.“You are taking 100 samples and taking a drop from each sample and putting it together,” Dr. Cohn said. “You are testing every single person who comes through. In the blood world safety is before everything."Blood banks test for HIV, Hepatitis C and B and well as COVID-19 antibodies, according to the American Red Cross. And, as this pandemic moves through our communities, Dr. Cohn says our blood supply needs to remain strong.“After that initial spike, it went down again and that was okay because elective surgery had been canceled, so the demand for blood had gone down as well so for a while we were at a good balance of demand and supply. But then elective surgeries opened up and hospitals went back to full service and we’re in a shortage again,” Dr. Cohn said. 3017

Authorities have started the arduous task of trying to retrieve a US missionary feared killed on a remote Indian island, careful not to trigger conflict with the islanders.John Allen Chau was last seen last week when he traveled to the forbidden North Sentinel Island in the Bay of Bengal to try to convert the island's residents to Christianity. The Sentinelese, as they are known, have a decades-long history of repelling outsiders, a fact that is near certain to make the journey to find Chau a treacherous one.Indian authorities along with the fishermen who reported seeing Chau's body last week, went near the island on Friday and Saturday in an effort to figure out how to recover the body."We have mapped the area with the help of these fishermen. We have not spotted the body yet but we roughly know the area where he is believed to be buried," said Dependra Pathak, a top police official in the Andaman and Nicobar Islands.Pathak said the group spotted several tribe members carrying bows and arrows and walking around the area where the fishermen said they saw Chau's body being dragged and buried."The mission was done from a distance to avoid any potential conflict with the tribespeople as it's a sensitive zone," he said. "We are discussing with anthropologists and psychologists about the nature of the Sentinelese."Pathak said there are a lot of things to consider before they enter the island, including the psychology of its residents."There are legal requirements as well which we need to keep in mind while carrying out the operation. We are also studying the 2006 case where two local fishermen were killed. The bodies were recovered then," he said. 1678

BALTIMORE — Romance scams have nearly doubled this year, according to the FBI. The holidays coupled with the pandemic have many people feeling lonely. Dating sites help singles connect, but it's not always who you think it is.A Montgomery County man thought he was in a relationship with a woman named Brandy Bowens, instead, he lost ,000 in a romance scam. "It’s like there are claws in you that you can't seem to get out," he said.He didn't want to be identified but wants to warn others about how his five-year relationship ended in financial ruin."It's hard. I lost the money and it messed up everything in a financial way for me, trying to build my credit back, just so much that that has screwed up for me," he said.His better judgment took a back seat when he was asked to be the go-between for the woman's art business. The FBI later informed him that he was involved in a money-laundering operation."That's a huge problem and continues to be a problem," said Supervisory Special Agent Keith Custer with the FBI Baltimore field office.Custer estimates that romance scams are up 30 to 50 percent. It's also one of the highest dollar value scams, and victims rarely get their money back.Custer is warning anyone with an online dating profile to research the person's photo and profile. Start by doing a reverse google image search, and look for scammers to make up excuses on why they can't meet in-person or video chat."Saying my phone is broke or my camera doesn’t work," the Montgomery County man said.And never send money to anyone you don't know personally."More people are being isolated and are online looking for companionship, so naturally that fraud and those scams are going to continue," said Custer.If you think you might be a victim of a romance scam, contact your local FBI office or file a report online.This story was first reported by Mallory Sofastaii at WMAR in Baltimore, Maryland. 1920