濮阳东方妇科医院做人流安全不(濮阳东方男科医院技术值得放心) (今日更新中)

The polling industry has a lot on the line heading into Tuesday's midterm election.Critics blamed pollsters when voters were caught off guard by Donald Trump's election in 2016. Old cries of "don't believe the polls" became fevered shouts. And the president has encouraged distrust by calling certain polls "fake" and claiming they are used to "suppress" the vote.Although there is no evidence to suggest that is true, there is persistent and widespread suspicion about polling, according to, you guessed it, a McClatchy-Marist poll. And it exists on both sides, albeit in different forms."I think Democrats may have felt let down by the polls but don't think it was an intentional error. I think many Republicans believe the polling errors of 2016 were intentional," GOP pollster and co-founder of Echelon Insights Kristen Soltis Anderson told CNN.So can the industry regain trust?Since 2016 there's been a whole lot of self-reflection in the polling world. Pollsters have tweaked their techniques; pundits have become more cautious when talking about polls; and news outlets have conducted some fascinating experiments.On Tuesday, all the efforts are being put to the test."Some pollsters would disagree with this, but the way that the public generally views whether or not polling is accurate is whether or not it gets the results of the election right," CNN analyst Harry Enten said on "Reliable Sources.""I'm not necessarily sure that's fair," Enten said, "but I do think that there is more pressure on pollsters this year to get it right given the president's rhetoric and given what happened in 2016."Many, though not all, 2016 polls underestimated support for Trump. This effect was particularly pronounced at the state level, where there were embarrassing "misses," showing Hillary Clinton with safe leads in states Trump actually carried.Most national polls accurately showed Clinton winning the popular vote. But reporters and commentators made lots of mistakes in their interpretations of the polls. Readers and viewers did, too. Many people discounted the margin and other factors and made faulty assumptions that Trump would lose to Clinton.There were other problems, too. Predictive features on websites gained lots of traffic before the election but caused lots of consternation afterward. HuffPost's model infamously showed Clinton with a 98 percent chance of winning. "We blew it," the site admitted afterward.But just as importantly, HuffPost's Natalie Jackson tried to explain why.Other news outlets have also tried to be more transparent and remind voters of what polls cannot convey.In special elections since 2016, Democrats have repeatedly outperformed polls of their races.The top example was the Virginia governors' race. "Ralph Northam was favored by three points. He ended up winning by nine," Enten said.But past outcomes are not an indicator of future results."I think many pollsters and forecasters have tried to be much more intentional about explaining uncertainty and being humble about what data can and can't tell us," Anderson said. "Because I think there was a big sense that in 2016, there was more certainty conveyed than may have been justified by the available data."So political pros and reporters are communicating poll results differently this time. Time magazine's Molly Ball, who has a no-predictions rule for herself, said that even people who do make predictions are adding more caveats: There's "less of the, 'Well, the needle shows this' and more of, 'Here's what it doesn't show, here's what we should always remember can happen about probabilities.'"Early voting has been explosive in the midterms, indicating above-average enthusiasm among both Democrats and Republicans. Pollsters have to make assumptions about turnout when contacting "likely voters," and this is a difficult election to forecast.The 2018 electorate is "a universe that doesn't exist yet," Democratic pollster Margie Omero said. "I mean, people don't know whether they're going to vote, some people."They may tell a pollster that they're sure to vote, but never make it to the ballot box. Or they might change who they're voting for.Conversely, certain subsets of voters may have a big impact on the final results without really showing up in the pre-election polling. If pollsters assume relatively low youth turnout, but lots of young people vote for the first time, that could cause big surprises in certain races.The vast majority of people who are called by pollsters decline to participate, so the researchers have to make a huge number of phone calls, bend over backwards to reach a representative sample of people, and weight their results accordingly.Some polls are higher quality than others. Most news outlets tend to favor live interviewers, as opposed to computerized systems, and a mix of landline and cell phone calls. But some outlets are wading into web-based polling. CNN's polling standards preclude reporting on web polls.This fall The New York Times pulled back the curtain by conducting "live polling" and publishing the results in real time, call by call. Working with Siena College, the surveyors made 2,822,889 calls and completed 96 polls of House and Senate races."We wanted to demystify polling for people," said Nate Cohn of The Times' Upshot blog."From our point of view, it's almost a miracle how accurate polls usually are, given all the challenges," Cohn said in an interview with CNN.He emphasized that polls are "very fuzzy things." And the real-time polling showed this to the public. The researchers sought to interview about 500 people for each race that was examined.In Iowa's fourth congressional district, for example, 14,636 calls resulted in 423 interviews.The results showed the incumbent, far-right congressman Steve King, with 47% support, and his Democratic challenger J.D. Scholten with 42%.The Times characterized this as a "slight edge" for King, with lots of room for error. "The margin of sampling error on the overall lead is 10 points, roughly twice as large as the margin for a single candidate's vote share," the Times explained on its website.Cohn's final pre-election story noted that "even modest late shifts among undecided voters or a slightly unexpected turnout could significantly affect results."That's the kind of language that lots of polling experts are incorporating into their stories and live shots, especially in the wake of the 2016 election."With polling, you never actually get to the truth," Cohn said. "You inch towards it, and you think you end up within plus or minus 5 points of it at the end."As Enten put it, "polls are tools," not meant to be perfect. But that message needs to be reinforced through the news media. 6753

The NFL is committing 0 million over 10 years to social justice initiatives, targeting what it calls “systemic racism” and supporting “the battle against the ongoing and historic injustices faced by African Americans.”The league, which has raised million in donations through its Inspire Change program, announced the additional 6 million commitment Thursday. It plans to “work collaboratively with NFL players to support programs to address criminal justice reform, police reforms, and economic and educational advancement.”Less than a week ago, Commissioner Roger Goodell denounced racism in a video prompted greatly by a players’ video seeking NFL action.“I am listening, and I will be reaching out to players who have raised their voices and others on how we can improve and go forward for a better and more united NFL family,” he said.The players want to see definitive action, of course. There has been increasing distrust of the NFL since San Francisco quarterback Colin Kaepernick and others began kneeling during the national anthem in 2016 to protest social injustice and police brutality. The message was misconstrued by the league and many team owners as anti-military and anti-flag. Goodell admitted as much in his video, though never mentioning Kaepernick, who has not found an NFL job the last three seasons.That distrust was expressed Wednesday by 49ers star cornerback Richard Sherman.“They’ve tried their best to throw money behind it for a long time,” he said. “It takes more than that. It takes you literally calling out bigotry and being motivated. It’s not just pleading. It’s being consistent year in and year out that you’re combating this issue and that this is a problem that needs to change. And it’s not just this year, not just 2016, not just 2017, but ‘Black Lives Matter.’ They have to matter forever.”The Players Coalition was established in 2017 to work for social justice, growing out of the Kaepernick-inspired protests and pledging to improve police/community relations, champion criminal justice reform, and promote education and economic advancement in communities across the nation.Earlier this week, the coalition collected more than 1,400 signatures from active and retired athletes, coaches and executives from a variety of sports and presented them to Congress this week in support of a bill seeking to eliminate qualified immunity regarding police brutality. That bill was introduced in response to the deaths of George Floyd and Breonna Taylor while in police custody.Saints safety Malcolm Jenkins, a co-founder of the Players Coalition, spoke on CBS about the movement to defund police:“It doesn’t mean we eradicate police completely. We’ve got 10 million kids going to schools with police officers in them and no social workers. Three million that have got police in their schools and no nurses. Six million with police in their schools but no psychologists. Yet we want to invest in putting more police on the streets and over-policing that we know does not make our communities safer.“We’d rather see that money go to programs that help with entrepreneurship, that help with our schooling, that help with black people who have been disproportionately affected by COVID.”Some of the programs the NFL is targeting will deal with those issues, according to Anna Isaacson, the league’s senior vice president of social responsibility.“What this really is is a deeper and expanded commitment form the league and owners to say we are in this for the long haul,” she said. “It’s probably a deeper clarification on what we are meaning and focusing on. It has always been there, that focus, but obviously with current events and even before the last two weeks, conversations with the players have been on really focusing on this. Recent events solidified this has to be a key focus for us.”Isaacson mentions Big Brothers and Big Sisters, and Metro Peace Academy in Chicago as two organizations the league works with.“With Big Brothers and Big Sisters, we fund a program to bridge the gap in communication and understanding,” he said. “The program is pairing law enforcement officers with specific under-served youth, and those one-on-one relationships are to both the `Big’ and the `Little,′ as they call them, meant as a way to bridge whatever gaps exist. Building one-on-one relationships where trust is built and knowledge gained is essential.“In Chicago, we funded a program that does training with the community in how to work with their local police department and training with police on how to work with the community. That program is trying to reach the most at-risk youth and adults.“There are many such programs across the country that have started this work and are doing incredible work on the ground. We are looking for programs with a proven model and good track record and that has boots on the ground and treating people directly. National in scale, but that is truly the grass roots.“We’re making sure a lot of our grants are reaching down into the communities they serve, people to people and person to person.”___More AP NFL: https://apnews.com/NFL and https://twitter.com/AP_NFL 5156

The Museum of the Bible in Washington, DC says five of its most valuable artifacts — all thought to be part of the historic Dead Sea Scrolls — are fake and will not be displayed anymore.German-based scholars tested the fragments and found that five "show characteristics inconsistent with ancient origin and therefore will no longer be displayed at the museum.""Though we had hoped the testing would render different results, this is an opportunity to educate the public on the importance of verifying the authenticity of rare biblical artifacts, the elaborate testing process undertaken and our commitment to transparency," said Jeffrey Kloha, the chief curatorial officer for Museum of the Bible."As an educational institution entrusted with cultural heritage, the museum upholds and adheres to all museum and ethical guidelines on collection care, research and display."But some scholars had questioned the fragments in the collection even before the museum opened with splashy ceremonies last November. Others believe they are all fake.Steve Green, the museum's founder and chairman, won't say how much his family spent for the 16 fragments in its collection. But other evangelicals, including a Baptist seminary in Texas and an evangelical college in California, have paid millions to purchase similar pieces of the Dead Sea Scrolls.In April 2017, Bible Museum sent five fragments to the Bundesanstalt für Materialforschung und-prüfung (BAM) a German institute for analyzing materials, where scholars tested for 3D digital microscopy and conducted material analyses of the ink and sediment on the papyrus. (Scholars have theorized that forgers use old scraps of papyrus or leather, to make fraud detection more difficult.)Their report, which the Bible Museum said they recently received, "further raises suspicions about the authenticity of all five fragments." 1874

The National Retail Federation expects the average shopper to spend roughly ,000 on gifts this Christmas —up about from the year before.You could end up spending even more, depending on how you pay for it.According to the U.S. Federal Reserve, nearly half of Americans say they couldn't cover an emergency expense over 0. Consumer protection attorney Gordon Leech explains how the interest rate can vary wildly after those flashy offers expire."Good credit helps you it certainly helps you but it doesn't mean that whoever you're getting the credit from is actually giving you the best rate you ought to get," Leach said.Layaway is another option to get what you want without it affecting your credit or paying interest.The Better Business Bureau Serving Wisconsin points out the drawbacks include down payments and fees."What if you're halfway through and you decide you don't want it anymore what kind of refund do you get? Do you get any of it back do you get all of it back?" said Jim Temmer, president of BBB Serving Wisconsin.The number one point the BBB president says is to make sure to stick to your budget. As hard as it is, do not buy what you cannot afford. 1191

The man accused of killing 17 people at Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School in Parkland, Florida earlier this year reportedly attacked a detention officer inside a Florida jail Wednesday morning.WTVJ-TV in Miami spoke to the Broward County Sheriff's office in Miami, who confirmed that Nikolas Cruz attacked an injured a detention officer at the Broward County Jail Wednesday morning. The condition of the injured officer is unknown.Cruz is the suspected shooter in the Feb. 14 shooting at Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School in Parkland, where 17 students and teachers were killed. Cruz was charged with 34 counts of premeditated murder and attempted murder in March and is currently awaiting trial.More on this as it develops.  779

来源：资阳报