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A key forecasting model that’s been cited by the White House and state officials now predicts the COVID-19 death toll in the United States will surpass 410,000 by January 1.The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington released its latest forecast Friday, saying the U.S. and other countries in the Northern Hemisphere should prepare for a seasonal rise in COVID-19 cases.COVID-19 has already killed at least 186,800 people in the U.S., according to an ongoing tally from Johns Hopkins University.“I would call the surge in the winter that we’re forecasting a second wave,” said IHME Director Dr. Christopher Murray in a call with reporters Friday.The IHME says COVID-19 has followed seasonal patterns similar to pneumonia and if that correlation continues to hold, northern countries can anticipate more cases in the late fall and winter months.“The worst is yet to come,” warned Murray. “I don’t think perhaps that’s a surprise, although I think there’s a natural tendency as we’re a little bit in the Northern Hemisphere summer, to think maybe the epidemic is going away.”The IHME’s prediction of 410,000 U.S. deaths by Jan. 1 is its most likely scenario, but it also provided a worst-case scenario. If mask usage stays the same and states continue to relax social distancing requirements, the IHME model predicts over 620,000 Americans could die from the virus by the new year.The IHME’s best-case scenario, where mask usage is universal and governments impose social distancing requirements, shows more than 286,000 people dying across the nation by the end of the year.“We are facing the prospect of a deadly December, especially in Europe, Central Asia, and the United States,” said Murray in a statement. “But the science is clear and the evidence irrefutable: mask-wearing, social distancing, and limits to social gatherings are vital to helping prevent transmission of the virus.”Globally, the IHME predicts that nearly 770,000 lives could be saved between now and Jan. 1 through proven measures such as mask-wearing and social distancing.Across the world, deaths expected by Jan. 1 total 2.8 million, about 1.9 million more from now until the end of the year, the IHME says. Daily deaths in December could reach as high as 30,000.Under the most likely of IHME’s scenarios, the nations with the highest per capita total deaths would be the U.S. Virgin Islands, the Netherlands, and Spain.The IHME says these five countries will most likely have the highest cumulative death tolls by Jan. 1:India: 659,537U.S.: 410,451Brazil: 174,297Mexico: 138,828Japan: 120,514IHME says its projections are based on an epidemiological model that includes data on cases, deaths, and antibody prevalence, as well as location-specific COVID-19 testing rates, mobility, social distancing mandates, mask use, population density and age structure, and pneumonia seasonality, which shows a strong correlation with the trajectory of COVID-19. 2977

A Canton, Ohio high school teacher has been indicted on multiple felony counts for allegedly engaging in sexual activity with students.Tiffany Eichler, 36, was charged with three counts of sexual battery, all third-degree felonies.Eichler is accused of having sex with three different students who attended McKinley High School in Canton while she was employed as a physical education teacher.Canton police interviewed Eichler on March 8 after they were notified by the director of school security. Eichler told police she was being blackmailed for money by students after having had sex with them, according to a police report.During the interview, Eichler told authorities she picked a student up near his house and the two engaged in sexual activity in her car. According to the report, Eichler went to the student's house later the same day and the two engaged in sexual activity in the basement. The report states that following the encounters, the student reached out to the teacher and asked for money to buy antibiotics.The student also told Eichler that his sister found out about their relationship and he needed money to keep her quiet, according to the police report. Police reports say Eichler allegedly had sexual contact with another student one day after school when she called him into her office before practice. Eichler allegedly engaged in sexual activity with a third student in the backseat of her car at an unknown park.Following the investigation, the school district released the following statement: 1578

A Black Lives Matter billboard is seen next to a Confederate flag in Pittsboro, N.C., Thursday, July 16, 2020. A group in North Carolina erected the billboard to counter the flag that stands along the road. (AP Photo/Gerry Broome) 238

A California farm that was tied to an outbreak of E.coli on romaine lettuce is now recalling cauliflower and other lettuce grown at the farm.Adam Bros. Farming Inc. sent out a news release Thursday saying red leaf lettuce, green leaf lettuce and cauliflower harvested November 27-30 has been recalled because it may also be contaminated with E.coli.The farm initiated the voluntary recall with the U.S. Food and Drug Administration on Thursday. The cauliflower was distributed in 10 states: Arizona, California, Illinois, Louisiana, Maryland, North Carolina, New Jersey, New York, Ohio and Pennsylvania. It was also distributed in Tijuana, Mexico and Canada. The additional lettuce recalled was sent to states mostly on the western side of the country. Red and green leaf lettuce was distributed in California, Colorado, Oregon, Texas, Pennsylvania, Washington and Canada. Red leaf lettuce only was distributed in Minnesota and Tijuana, Mexico.The farm said it discovered sediment in a reservoir that tested positive for E.coli from a reservoir near where the produce is grown and water from that reservoir may have come into contact with the produce.Click here for a list of tag numbers of products affected by the recall.  1262

A man berated employees and customers for speaking Spanish in a New York restaurant, describing them as undocumented and threatening to call immigration officials in a rant captured on video.The incident happened Tuesday at a Fresh Kitchen in Manhattan, according to Edward Suazo, who posted a video of the encounter on Facebook, saying his wife and her friend were the target of the man's anger.The video starts with a man in a white collared shirt confronting employees and customers in the restaurant. 512