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Predicting the outcome of elections can sometimes be easy. Other years, it is not. Professor Allan Lichtman has predicted every election since 1984, using a model he developed alongside Soviet Union scientists.One of Lichtman's proudest achievements was accurately predicting the 2016 election. President Donald Trump signed a Washington Post article about Lichtman in recent years with his autograph and the phrase "good call."THE METHODLichtman doesn't look at polls."Polls are not predictors, they are misused as predictors," Lichtman said.Instead, Lichtman looks at the political party currently controlling the White House. Then he uses 13 keys to gauge whether the party controlling the White House will lose or not.They are: midterm gains, no contest in the primary, incumbency, no third party, strong short-term economy, strong long-term economy, major policy change, no social unrest, no scandal, no overseas failure, major overseas achievement, charismatic incumbent, uncharismatic opponent."If six or more, any six more, turn against the party holding the White House, they are a predicted loser," Luchtman said.2020 PREDICTIONLichtman says before 2020, Trump appeared to be heading to a reelection. However Trump has now lost seven keys.In Lichtman's opinion, Trump has lost midterm gains, short term economy, long-term economy, no social unrest, no scandal, major overseas achievement, and charismatic incumbent."Could I be wrong? Of course human beings are wrong. But my keys have quite a track record," Lichtman said. 1541

President Donald Trump said Thursday his administration will impose tariffs on steel and aluminum imports next week, a highly controversial move that Trump framed along national security lines.Trump said the US will impose a 25% tariff on steel imports and 10% tariff on aluminum, capping a fierce, months-long internal debate that divided some of the President's top advisers. Anticipating the move, experts have said the move is likely to invite retaliatory measures from foreign countries.It was not immediately clear whether Trump would exempt some countries from the tariffs, as his national security advisers have urged him to do to avoid hurting key US allies.Trump announced the move during a hastily arranged listening session with steel and aluminum executives, even though the policy he announced is not yet ready to be implemented.The President told aides on Wednesday to lay the groundwork for him to announce new tariffs on steel and aluminum imports the next day, sending them scrambling to determine what specific policy he could announce and others racing to contact executives and union representatives from the industry to attend the announcement at the White House, multiple sources said.Some of the aides who have been crafting the policy were caught off guard by the plans for an announcement, which The Washington Post first reported Wednesday night.The White House added a last-minute event with Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross and steel and aluminum industry representatives at the White House on Thursday morning.Earlier on Wednesday, lawyers in the White House Counsel's Office and the Justice Department's Office of Legal Counsel made clear to policy staffers that they needed more time -- perhaps several more weeks -- to turn the Commerce Department's recommendations into a proclamation that would impose the tariffs Trump has sought to levy on steel and aluminum imports."Maybe he wants to make an announcement, but the proclamation isn't ready," one White House official said. "Without the proclamation, nothing has legal force."As of mid-morning on Thursday, a White House official said there were no firm plans for an announcement and one White House official said the discussion was going "back and forth" on whether an announcement was feasible.The President, meanwhile, continued to press on via Twitter: "Our Steel and Aluminum industries (and many others) have been decimated by decades of unfair trade and bad policy with countries from around the world. We must not let our country, companies and workers be taken advantage of any longer. We want free, fair and SMART TRADE!"It wasn't immediately clear what sparked Trump's sudden desire to make the policy announcement within 24 hours, but his directive for a next-day announcement came as the White House was engulfed in its latest string of negative headlines.On Wednesday alone, one of Trump's longest-serving aides Hope Hicks announced her resignation, his son-in-law Jared Kushner was the subject of several stories raising questions about his foreign and business entanglements and infighting within the West Wing once again seized the spotlight.The tariff announcement would have served as a mild reprieve, sparking off a debate about the merits of a policy that is likely to invite retaliation from other countries.The mad scramble Trump set off on Wednesday was just the latest chaotic chapter in the chaotic policy-making on trade issues that has defined the Trump administration.Trade policy, and the debate over steel and aluminum measures in particular, has been the subject of bitter infighting within the Trump administration.The question of whether to impose the protectionist measures Trump has long favored on steel and aluminum set off a bitter debate between warring factions inside the White House. The debate pitted the National Economic Council director Gary Cohn, Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin, national security adviser H.R. McMaster and Defense Secretary James Mattis against the proponents of protectionist trade policies, namely Ross, US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and trade adviser Peter Navarro.But in recent weeks it became obvious that Trump was sticking with his original instincts and readying a decision to impose tariffs or quotas on steel and aluminum imports.The departure of Rob Porter, the White House staff secretary who had sought to play a leadership role in trade policy by organizing a weekly meeting on the issue, helped speed up the process to ready the protectionist measures as Lighthizer took over the process, one White House official said.The opposition to the measure was twofold, with the President's economic advisers arguing that the protectionist measures would lead to damaging retaliation from other countries and unsettle global markets. The President's national security and defense advisers warned about harmful impacts on steel-producing US allies.It appeared likely Trump would grant some exemptions as he moved to impose trade duties on the steel and aluminum imports -- but as of Thursday morning, nothing was certain.  5105

President Donald Trump is shifting his story about the Stormy Daniels controversy following the revelation by his lawyer, Rudy Giuliani, that the President reimbursed a payment to the adult film actress by Michael Cohen.Trump -- who previously said he was not aware of the 0,000 Cohen paid to Daniels before the 2016 election in an effort to keep her quiet about an alleged affair between her and the President -- denied on Thursday that any campaign money was used to reimburse Cohen and said he was paid via retainer. The payment has prompted complaints to the Justice Department and Federal Election Commission over potential violations of campaign finance law. 675

President Donald Trump has reportedly signed off on a .8 trillion COVID-19 relief package.According to CNN, two sources with knowledge of the decision said the offer would be presented to House Speaker Nancy Pelosi.According to the Associated Press, a GOP aide familiar said Pelosi's most recent public offer was about .2 trillion.Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and Pelosi spoke for more than 30 minutes Friday afternoon, the AP reported.But according to Pelosi's spokesman, the newest offer doesn't "include an agreement on a national strategy for testing, tracing and other efforts to contain the spread of the virus," the New York Times reported.News of Trump signing off on a new stimulus relief plan comes just days after announcing he wasn't negotiating for a new COVID-19 relief bill until after the elections. 832

President Donald Trump has received at least eight different medicines and supplements since he was diagnosed with COVID-19.Several are new and approved under emergency or compassionate use orders, including Regeneron's antibody cocktail. It uses lab-created COVID-19 antibodies to boost the immune response.A late stage trial that has not been peer-reviewed yet suggests the cocktail is safe and appeared to reduce symptoms.“None of the other medicines that he's been given, whether it's Remdesivir, more recently, dexamethasone, none of them have actually been shown to have direct antiviral activity, that is, they don't lower the virus levels directly,” said Dr. George Yancopoulos, a founding scientist at Regeneron.Yancopoulos says they're getting more requests, but “compassionate use” is not intended for widespread distribution. The Food and Drug Administration would have to grant emergency use authorization“And as of course, we all know, when you're fighting a viral disease and it's a race between the virus taking over and your body beating it, and dropping viral levels would be a great indicator that that the battle is going in the right direction and that the patient is winning,” said Yancopoulos.The president also took a steroid called dexamethasone. It's used to treat inflammation and is proven to help people breathe when they need oxygen.“For patients who were hospitalized or getting oxygen, it was extremely effective in helping them walk out of the hospital under their own powers,” said Peter Pitts, President of the Center for Medicine in the Public Interest.Meanwhile first lady Melania Trump, who also tested positive, tweeted Monday that she is feeling good and will continue to rest at home. 1733

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