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BEIJING, May 5 --  The economy is likely to expand 7 percent in the second quarter - up from the first quarter's 6.1 percent - even as it confronts the painful prospect of shedding industrial overcapacity, a top government think tank said Monday.    "Economic growth will pick up in the second quarter as the government's stimulus measures gradually take effect," the State Information Center (SIC) forecast.     "There has been preliminary success in arresting the economy's downward trend," it said, but did not mention any fallout from the global H1N1 flu alert.     But Zhu Baoliang, an SIC economist and one of the authors of the SIC report, said the economy will only be slightly affected by the H1N1 flu.     Annualized GDP growth sank to a decade's low in the first quarter, largely because of a collapse in export demand.     But analysts said the economy might have bottomed out since then as latest economic figures are increasingly upbeat.     The CLSA China Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), a gauge of manufacturing activity, rose to 50.1 in April, the first time it has been above 50 since last August, CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets said yesterday. A PMI reading above 50 indicates an expansion of the manufacturing sector, while a reading below 50 signals a contraction.     Also, the PMI index compiled by the Federation of Logistics and Purchasing rose for the fifth straight month in April to 53.5 percent, up 1.1 percentage points from a month earlier.     The positive economic signs sent stock markets up across Asia, with the mainland's Shanghai Composite Index rising 3.3 percent and Hong Kong's Hang Seng index 5.5 percent.     "The Chinese government has been extremely successful in stimulating investment," said Eric Fishwick, CLSA head of economic research. "We hope that firmer domestic demand, as government spending gains traction, will keep the PMI above 50 in the months to come."     The World Bank said in a report in early April that the Chinese economy is expected to bottom out by the middle of 2009. It also forecast China's economic growth at 6.5 percent for the year.     The International Monetary Fund also forecast last month that growth in China is expected to slow to about 6.5 percent this year.     Consumer spending held fast over the past months, despite looming unemployment pressure. About 2.68 million vehicles were sold in the first quarter, making the nation the world's largest auto market during the period.     Housing sales surged 23.1 percent by value while retail sales rose 15.9 percent in the first quarter, 3.6 percentage points higher than the same period a year earlier.     "Based on the clear uptrend in recent economic activity we believe the worst is already behind China in terms of economic growth," Sun Mingchun, chief China economist of Nomura International, wrote in a research note. Sun said China would achieve its 8 percent growth target this year, with a V-shaped growth trajectory.     But some analysts argue that the figures could be volatile and the economy has to deal with the structural problem of overcapacity.     "It's still too early to say the economy is experiencing a real recovery," said Zhu, the SIC economist. "Over the past months, local enterprises have been running down their inventories. Now they have to reduce overcapacity."

BEIJING, June 16 (Xinhua) -- For the first time in more than one year, China reduced its holding of U.S. Treasury bonds, and experts told Xinhua Tuesday that move reflected concern over the safety of U.S.-dollar-linked assets.     Data from the U.S. Treasury showed China pared its stake in Treasury bonds by 4.4 billion U.S. dollars, to 763.5 billion U.S. dollars, as of the end of April compared with March.     Tan Yaling, an expert at the China Institute for Financial Derivatives at Peking University, told Xinhua that the move might reflect activity by China's institutional investors. "It was a rather small amount compared with the holdings of more than 700 billion U.S. dollars."     "It is unclear whether the reduction will continue because the amount is so small. But the cut signals caution of governments or institutions toward U.S. Treasury bonds," Zhang Bin, researcher with the Institute of World Economics and Politics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, a government think tank, told Xinhua.     He added that the weakening U.S. dollar posed a threat to the holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds.     The U.S. government began to increase currency supply through purchases of Treasury bonds and other bonds in March, which raised concern among investors about the creditworthiness of U.S. Treasury bonds. The move also dented investor confidence in the U.S. dollar and dollar-linked assets.     China, the biggest holder of U.S. Treasury bonds, is highly exposed. In March, Premier Wen Jiabao called on the United States "to guarantee the safety of China's assets."     China is not the only nation that trimmed holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds in April: Japan, Russian and Brazil did likewise, to reduce their reliance on the U.S. dollar.     However, Tan said that U.S. Treasury bonds were still a good investment choice.     Hu Xiaolian, head of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, said in March that U.S. Treasury bonds played a very important role in China's investment of its foreign exchange reserves. China would continue to buy the bonds while keeping an eye on fluctuations.     Zhang said it would take months to see if China would lower its stake. Even so, any reduction would not be large, or international financial markets would be shaken, he said.     Wang Yuanlong, researcher with the Bank of China, said the root of the problem was the years of trade surpluses, which created the huge amount of foreign exchange reserves in China. It left China's assets tethered to the U.S. dollar, he said.     He said making the Renminbi a global currency would cut China's demand for the U.S. dollar and reduce its proportion in the trade surplus.

BEIJING, May 17 (Xinhua) -- China's power consumption declined 3.63 percent year on year in April, larger than the 2.01 percent decrease rate in March, the China Securities News quoted figures from the China Electricity Council (CEC) Friday.     A total of 275.67 billion kilowatt hours of electricity were used in April. The figure for the first four months was 1.06 trillion kilowatt hours, down 4.03 percent from the same period a year ago.     Analysts said the extending decline indicated a soft footing in economic recovery. It is normal that power output and consumption have ups and downs in the process of economic revival.     From January to April, power used by the agriculture and tertiary sectors went up 4.69 percent and 9.04 percent. And that for industrial sector slipped 8.29 percent.     The National Bureau of Statistic (NBS) said on May 13 that power generation fell 3.5 percent last month from a year earlier, to 271.29 billion kilowatt hours. The industrial output rose 7.3 percent in the same month.     Since the industrial sector consumes about 70 percent of China's power, some economists questioned whether a rise in industrial production could be accompanied by a decline in power consumption.     Zhang Liqun, a researcher with the Development Research Center of the State Council, a government think-tank, told Xinhua that when looking at the decline in industrial power use, it was important to remember that industrial upgrading was still in progress. The decline of electricity consumption by heavy industry, which accounts for 82 percent of total industrial power consumption, was the leading cause for the overall decline.     According to CEC data, power consumed by the heavy industry was down 8.62 percent in the first four months, and that for the light industry sank 6.76 percent.     Analyst expected that power use in May would fall slower than the previous month, as the rebounding electrolytic aluminum and iron and steel industries would use more electricity in the coming months.

BEIJING, July 1 (Xinhua) -- Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao called for attention to "institutional and management loopholes" discovered in the auditing of central government budget in 2008 here Wednesday.     Wen made the comment at the executive meeting of the State Council, China's Cabinet.     All related authorities should take more effective measures to correct these problems, including revising the budget law, strengthening the monitoring and supervision of the new investment projects of the central government, and enhancing transparency in government affairs, Wen said.     He also called for establishment of accountability mechanism and building of effective monitoring, alarm, emergency system directing at major economic risks.     The correction result should be reported to the State Council by the end of October, Wen said.     Wen also said that the execution and management of the central budget had made substantial improvement in general, and highlighted the importance of audit supervision.     The meeting also approved plans to develop the coastal economic belt in northeastern Liaoning Province in an effort to rejuvenate the traditional industrial base.     The zone comprises coastal cities of Dalian, Dandong, Jinzhou, Yingkou, Panjin and Huludao, which opened navigation services to more than 140 countries and regions.     The economic zone should work to boost the opening up of northeast China, promote the shipping and logistics services, and push for the development of advanced manufacturing in the area.

HEFEI, July 7 (Xinhua) -- Senior Chinese leader Wu Bangguo urges here Tuesday the role of low-carbon economy in the development of east China's Anhui Province.     "As the world is focusing on low-carbon economy, we should seize the opportunity by promoting solar, wind and other reproducible energies, providing endless power for the sustainable development of the country's economy," said Wu, a member of the Standing Committee of the Communist Party of China Central Committee Political Bureau, during a visit to Anhui between July 2 and 7. Wu Bangguo (C), a member of the Standing Committee of the Communist Party of China Central Committee Political Bureau and chairman of the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress, visits a plant of Anhui's Conch Group in east China's Anhui Province, July 3, 2009. Wu Bangguo paid a visit to Anhui between July 2 and 7.Wu praised Anhui's Conch Group for growing from a small cement factory to one of the country's largest construction material companies.     "The company has been promoting environmental protection by reducing the consumption of coal and the emission of carbon dioxide, which, in return, brought more profitable opportunities for the company," he said.     In 2007, Conch began to cooperate with foreign groups in making energy-saving equipment. As of the end of May 2009, Hailuo had sold 96 energy-saving power generators to 20 domestic and foreign cement companies. Wu Bangguo (2nd R), a member of the Standing Committee of the Communist Party of China Central Committee Political Bureau and chairman of the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress, visits the research department of Chery Automobile Co., Ltd. in east China's Anhui Province, July 3, 2009. Wu Bangguo paid a visit to Anhui between July 2 and 7.Wu, also chairman of the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress (NPC), or top legislature, also visited the country's leading automobile maker Chery, headquartered in Anhui'scity of Wuhu.     According to sources with Chery, the company is shifting its focus from oil-fueled cars to electric and hybrid-energy vehicles. Under the policy of expanding domestic demand, Chery's sales from January to May achieved a year-on-year rise of 60 percent.     "The global financial crisis has brought both challenges and opportunities. While ensuring the steady and rapid economic development, we should also see clearly ahead and change the pressures from the market into momentum."     Wu especially stressed the development of the north region of Anhui.     Six cities of Fuyang, Bozhou, Huaibei, Huainan, Suzhou and Bengbu are in the north of Anhui. With 46 percent of the province's population, these cities only accounted for 20.4 percent of the province's financial income in 2008.     "The north region of Anhui is the country's important food-producing area and coal energy base. Its development considerably affects Anhui's overall situation," Wu added.