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BEIJING, May 3 (Xinhua) -- Decoupling from the world, and the economic downturn much of it is experiencing, has proven impossible for China. But its resilience is receiving more recognition, with many leading financial institutions upgrading their 2009 growth forecasts since mid-April.     The adjustments for gross domestic product (GDP) growth, ranging from 0.5 to 2.3 percentage points, were based on signs of a turnaround in the first quarter. These indicators included stronger-than-expected real GDP growth, recovering property investment, a pick-up in power consumption and a surge in bank lending.     Merrill Lynch & Co. said it expected China's GDP to grow 7.2 percent in the second quarter and 8 percent this year, while Goldman Sachs raised its projection from 6 percent to 8.3 percent, the most optimistic forecast so far. Other forecasts include UBS, which raised its estimate by 0.5 point to 7 percent and CLSA Asia-Pacific, which lifted its outlook by 1.5 point to 7 percent.     China's policymakers can take heart from these forecasts. Every upward revision, big or small, given the global economic slowdown, might point to a better chance for the nation to achieve its 8-percent growth target. That level of growth is considered necessary to raise living standards while maintaining social stability.     But there's still the question of whether rapid growth is sustainable. Some analysts believe it isn't unless China can rebalance its economy and achieve higher efficiency, lower environmental costs and a more reasonable balance among investment, trade and consumption.     QUANTITY OR QUALITY?     In an interview with Xinhua, Stephen Roach, chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia, urged Chinese authorities to get more serious about stimulating private consumption because the global economy remains "pretty weak" and might only achieve a weak recovery.     "China has responded to the crisis the way it has always responded to global problems. That is, using proactive fiscal stimulus mainly in the infrastructure area to provide temporary support in the downturn until the global economy comes back. It worked in the 1997 Asian financial crisis and the 2000-2001 mild recession. But this is a different sort of problem," said Roach.     "Once the stimulus wears off and if there is no follow-through, the Chinese economy will weaken again. I don't think exports will recover in the weak global economy."     Domestic economists voice similar worries, saying that the speed of growth doesn't matter as much as the quality. Liu Shangxi, deputy dean of the Research Institute for Fiscal Science at the Ministry of Finance, said that the 6.1-percent year-on-year growth in the first quarter had been "fairly good" for China. But, he said, "sometimes, it's worth slowing down a bit to have the economy move more stably."     Wang Xiaoguang, an economist with the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), the chief planning agency. said that the government's annual growth target had become mostly symbolic.     For five years in a row, the target was 8 percent, and for five years in a row, the growth rate overshot the target. Wang said the government had faced a dilemma: a cut in the target might undermine public confidence while a rise might tempt local governments to over-invest to meet a high growth target.     The turnaround signs mostly reflected the impact of the 4-trillion-yuan (586 billion U.S. dollars) stimulus package. Meanwhile, retail sales still trailed investment in contributing to growth. Local economists warned that the economy remained unbalanced and vulnerable.     "Historical records show that adjustments in the Chinese economy would take two to three years, on average. Seven months have passed since the impact of the global financial crisis began to tell on the local economy.     "With a turnaround in sight, recovery might come earlier than expected but there are still risks of a further slowdown," Chen Dongqi, deputy chief of the Macro-Economic Research Institute under the NDRC, told a business development forum in Guangdong in late April.     BUYING CURE     It's widely accepted among economists that China should boost domestic private consumption by leading individuals to buy more and save less. The key question is: how?     "Two big programs" Roach advocates call for doubling the investment in social security immediately to 150 billion U.S. dollars and establishing a goal of raising consumption as a share of the economy from 36 percent to 50 percent within five years.     "What I think is missing here is the social safety net, social security pension and unemployment insurance. Because of the absence of the safety net, China has seen a high level of precautionary saving," he said.     Roach suggested that China develop a private pension system in particular so total employee compensation could rise in tandem with productivity. "Chinese companies need to partner with their workers and provide medical care [and] retirement investing for their workforce. Chinese workers' total pay package should have both wages and benefits," he said.     Liu agreed that the primary task in expanding consumption was to raise incomes. "Securing the legitimate interests of workers is particularly significant when the economy slumps. It would be like drinking poison to quench one's thirst if businesses sought to expand corporate earnings at the cost of workers' pay and benefits," he said.     Low labor costs and massive capacity have propped up China's prosperity over the past decades. But the proportion of wages to national income has been on a long decline since the 1990s.     Between 2002 and 2006 alone, economists estimate the figure dropped from 62.1 percent to 57.1 percent. Meanwhile, the contribution of consumption to GDP growth fell from 43.6 percent to 38.9 percent.     "A more meaningful index to judge the sustainability of China's economic growth would be the proportion of wages to national income," Liu said. "If this ratio did not rise, people would remain poor, and thus expanding consumption would be empty talk."     Chinese are far from wealthy. Only 4 percent of the workforce, and just 10 percent of the urban workforce, earn more than 2,000 yuan a month, the threshold for individual income tax.     As Chinese residents hold 2.43 trillion yuan in aggregate deposits, economists say one immediate way to boost consumption would be to stabilize spending on staple property -- including housing and automobiles -- and support tourism and cultural activities.     "People spend much of their money on housing and food. The government should encourage people to entertain themselves more," Wang said.     CHINA 'NO LOCOMOTIVE'     Although China might be the first major economy to recover from the downturn, economists disagree on when China will return to sustained high growth.     Morgan Stanley, for example, has forecast a firm recovery by mid-year, but said sustainable growth through 2010 would still hinge on what happens in other countries.     "China will be stronger. But will that strength be enough to allow others to follow in its footsteps? I don't think so," said Roach.     "Most of China's resilience comes from infrastructure building, roads, property consumption ... [this] won't have an impact on the United States and Europe. This resilience is only temporary while its stimulus is local rather than global."     Central bank governor Zhou Xiaochuan also warned in late April during World Bank-IMF meetings in Washington that the rebound in China's economy had to be consolidated. He said conditions in China would permit rapid economic development again, once macroeconomic policies such as the stimulus plan took effect.     Challenging internal and external conditions, he said, included continuously shrinking external demand, a relatively large decline in exports, overcapacity in some industries, falling government revenue and lingering employment pressure.     As China emerges from the shadow of the downturn, together with many of its Western partners, the world is closely watching the socialist market economy that it is still trying to develop.     It was interesting to see that there was much "the ideologically-constrained West" could learn from China, just as there was much China could learn from the West, said Roach.     "China has gone slow in many areas, especially in the opening up of its financial market. But China made the right choice," he said.     "Focusing on stability is a huge plus for China. But the nation must be vigilant in its financial policies, especially monetary and regulatory policies, and not allow asset bubbles and financial innovations it doesn't understand," said Roach.

BEIJING, April 27 -- The yuan will remain stable against the U.S. dollar as China will take a cautious and stable position in its foreign exchange investment.     The Chinese currency gained against the US dollar in the past week and ended at 6.8273 last Friday, according to the China Foreign Exchange Trade System. The yuan closed at 6.8311 by the end of the previous week.     China will continue its policy of diversifying its huge amount of foreign exchange reserves, the currency regulator said last Friday.     Hu Xiaolian, head of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, told Xinhua news agency that it will stick to major currencies and high-quality assets in its foreign exchange investments.     China's overseas earnings hit 82.5 billion U.S. dollars in the past year, an 8-percent rise from a year earlier, according to data released by the administration last Friday.     Hu also noted the positive outlook of China's economy has lessened concerns over a depreciation in the yuan.

ZHENGZHOU, April 23 (Xinhua) -- Senior Chinese leader Jia Qinglin urged making all-out efforts to ensure economic growth, care for the lives of people and ensure stability during a research trip.     Jia, chairman of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference, made the call during a visit to central Henan Province from April 17 to 23, where he visited enterprises, urban and rural communities, research agencies and colleges.     There had been positive changes in China's economic development as the central government's macroeconomic policies started to pay off, Jia said. But downward pressure was still great, said Jia, who is also a member of the Standing Committee of the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China Central Committee. Jia Qinglin (2nd R), chairman of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference, shakes hands with students at Henan Agricultural University in central China's Henan Province, April 21, 2009. Jia Qinglin made an inspection tour in Henan Province on April 17-23Jia called for more support for companies, especially small and medium-sized ones, and help enterprises to increase exports and carry out technological upgrading.     He urged government departments to resolve the employment problems of rural workers and college graduates and expand the coverage of basic pension and health-care systems as well as the minimum living allowance system.     Great importance should be attached to work safety and the quality and safety of food and medicine, Jia said.     He also urged better work on promoting grain production, increasing farmers' incomes, building housing for low-income earners and improving the development of small towns.

UNITED NATIONS, May 29 (Xinhua) -- The exponential growth in trade and strategic relations between China and the Arab world is highly valued at the League of Arab States and will not come at the expense of relations with the United States, the secretary-general of the League of Arab States said at a press conference here on Friday.     "We value very much our relationship with China," Secretary-General Amre Moussa, told Xinhua. "We can have good relations, growing trade and growing economic investments with China and America at the same time." Amre Moussa, the secretary- general of the League of Arab States, gestures during a press conference at the headquarters of the United Nations in New York on May 29, 2009. Moussa on Friday called upon Israel to put an immediate end to the settlement construction in the West Bank, saying that if Israel goes ahead with the construction, it is impossible to set up an independent Palestinian stateChina is now the largest exporter to the Arab world, overtaking the United States for the first time since the 1960s. Trade between China and Arab countries jumped from 36.7 billion U.S. dollars in 2004, when the Sino-Arab Cooperation Forum was launched, to 132.8 billion dollars last year.     In the past, particularly during the Bush administration, the Arab world became increasingly disenchanted with America's lackluster role in the Israel-Palestine conflict. But U.S. President Barack Obama offers renewed hope that peace talks will progress.     "The previous administration waited six years (before addressing the crisis)," said Moussa. "Now (the Obama) administration has started engaging right away. This is encouraging because all of us have suffered from certain policies in the past."     "The hope is that the Obama administration will succeed in breaking this deadlock in order to allow the peace efforts to move on with the establishment of a viable Palestinian state ... which includes the immediate freeze of (Israeli) settlements," he said.     At the same time, despite the international community having "a window of opportunity," the Obama administration has yet to take concrete actions, added Moussa.     "What we expect is not only to hear a speech, but to act," he said.     Indeed, action on the Middle East crisis is rare. The UN Security Council has refused to follow up on recommendations made by a United Nations investigation into accusations of war crimes committed by Israel during the Gaza offensive in January.     Frustrated, the Arab League is "actively pursing" other avenues, including several independent fact finding and investigations, said Moussa.     "We are not going to let go of what happened in Gaza against the civilians," he said. "If you want to have justice, you have to have it across the board."     In a related development, the United Nations Human Rights Council investigation team will arrive in Gaza on Monday. Led by Justice Richard Goldstone, the team plans to meet with all concerned parties, including witness and victims of alleged violence, according to a press release issued on Friday. 

BEIJING, May 6 (Xinhua) -- China's central bank said Wednesday the economy is doing "better than expected" in the first quarter, and pledged to maintain "ample" liquidity in the financial system for economic recovery.     China would stick to its moderately easy monetary policy and ensure "ample" liquidity at banks, the People's Bank of China (PBoC) said in its quarterly monetary policy report posted on its website.     The country has pumped 4.58 trillion yuan (670 billion U.S. dollars) of new loans into the economy in the first quarter to stimulate growth.     The figure is already nearing 5 trillion yuan of new loans targeted for the whole year. In March alone, new loans increased by a record 1.89 trillion yuan.     The country's financial institutions and enterprises would digest the huge amount of new loans in the following months, the report said.     Industry insiders have said credit extended by China's banks in April may have dropped to above 600 billion yuan after staying at above 1 trillion yuan for three straight months.     The central bank said new lending from commercial banks focused on government-backed projects. It encourages more bank loans to be channeled to small and medium-sized enterprises as they play an important role in the national economy and in increasing employment.     The central bank said in the first-quarter monetary policy report it would continue to instruct financial institutions to extend new loans, despite the earlier surge.     The pick-up in bank lending is conducive to stabilize the financial market and boosting market confidence, PBoC said. Meanwhile, the bank urged lenders to improve credit quality to avoid a possible rebound in bad loans.     There have been "positive changes" in the economy in the first quarter, the bank said, echoing remarks made by Premier Wen Jiabao last month.     The quarter-on-quarter growth is improving, compared to the fourth quarter of last year, it said, without giving specific figures.     China's economy expanded 6.1 percent in the first quarter, the lowest pace in 10 years and down from 9 percent in the fourth quarter last year.     The central bank also said foundations for the recovery are not solid, as uncertainties in external economies still exist and private investment is yet to become active with new lending concentrated on government projects.     In listing uncertainties ahead, the bank said the country still has to battle against the financial crisis that is unfolding and a collapse in external demand that is hurting exports.     The country is also under great pressure to create enough jobs and from a slower growth in residents' income, which would suppress future consumption, it said.     The bank also warned overcapacity and insufficient demand may drive prices lower in the country with the world economy in a downturn.     But it also said continued falls in prices may become less likely along with the world recovery, a turnaround in the national economy and fast credit growth.     "Prices of primary products and assets may rebound quickly once investor confidence is restored, as the global credit is relatively loose thanks to injection of liquidity and stimulus packages across the world," the bank said.     The central bank also said it was concerned that the extraordinary monetary policy adopted by other major economies would result in inflation risks.     It referred to the quantitative easing policy adopted by the U.S., Japan, Britain and Switzerland to pump cash into their economies.     The quantitative easing policy meant increasing currency supply through purchasing mid- and long-term treasury bonds after central banks cut interests rates to near zero.     The extraordinary monetary policy harbored huge risks for international financial markets and the global economy, said the central bank.     It would increase the risk of global inflation, said the central bank, suggesting it would create new assets bubbles and inflation if central banks of major economies failed to mop up thehuge liquidity when the global economy recovered.     "A policy mistake made by some major central banks would put the whole world in risk of inflation," it said.     The quantitative easing policy would also make exchange rates of major currencies more volatile, according to the report.     The central bank cited the U.S. move to purchase treasury bond in March as an example, saying although the dollar had appreciated against other major currencies, it fell after the purchase.     PBoC said the policy would leave the bond markets subject to fluctuations.     It said massive purchase of mid- and long-term treasury bonds may keep yield at a low level. But in the long run, as the financial markets returned to stability and the economy recovered, inflation expectations would grow, interest rates would rise, and bond prices would adjust sharply, according to the report.

来源：资阳报